Turkey risks fracturing the Nato alliance and destroying its economy if it activates its Russian-made air defence missile system, experts have warned.
The US has threatened immediate economic sanctions if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan carries out the threat he made last month to make his S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries operational this month.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu this week seemed to reinforce Ankara's position when he refused to rule out activation.
But Mr Cavusolglu implied that Turkey would take US Patriot missiles if a “good offer” was made.
“If not, I have to take alternatives," he said.
Sanctions would have a devastating impact on the Turkish economy, which is suffering from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Foreign investors have removed US$7 billion (Dh25.71bn) from the value of Turkish stocks and bonds this year, and its foreign reserves are almost empty.
An IMF report this month predicted Turkey's GDP would contract by 5 per cent and unemployment is expected to double to 30 per cent, with 10 million out of work.
Despite the pandemic, tourist chiefs are still hoping to net $25bn in 2020, which is a drop of $10bn on last year.
But amid the dire warnings on the economy and Nato, experts are not ruling out Mr Erdogan’s readiness to defy pressure from his allies.
He has played a clever game, cementing an alliance with Russia while keeping Nato onside by not activating the missiles.
But he will cross the line if the missiles become operational, said Prof Michael Clarke of the Royal United Services Institute.
“Previously, this was all symbolic posturing by Turkey but now we are really at the threshold where people cannot play games," Prof Clarke said.
"We are at the Rubicon and my guess is that Erdogan will not cross it, but the problem with Erdogan is his complete unpredictability and that he is not afraid of America.
“Sadly, if Turkey goes ahead with activation, then this will threaten the Nato alliance.”
The worries among Turkey’s Nato allies are real. In a deal worth more than $2bn, Turkey has so far taken delivery of up to 200 missiles and 36 launch vehicles.
The S-400 is among the most advanced missile systems in the world. Its radar is capable of reading highly secret data from aircraft passing within its 240-kilometre search radius.
The new F35 fighter-bomber, which carries an immense amount of data, could be vulnerable when flying over the Eastern Mediterranean.
Defence chiefs are concerned that Russia will download the information through hacking or spyware embedded in the S-400s.
Ankara bought the S-400s believing the US was behind the failed 2016 coup attempt.
Unfortunately, Mr Erdogan’s decision cost the Turkish defence industry an estimated $12bn in income after it was thrown out as an F35 project partner.
It also means that Turkey’s air force is without an aircraft that could dominate the skies.
Ankara had restored some good will in Washington with the resistance by Turkish troops in Idlib against Russian-backed Syrian forces.
Signs that Turkey’s financial situation has further deteriorated come after it approached G20 countries, including the US, for currency swap agreements after a severe drop in foreign reserves as a result of Covid-19.
The pro-government media has remained silent on the S-400 suggesting that the lethal virus has influenced Mr Erdogan’s thinking not to drive the Turkish economy over the precipice.
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David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
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Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
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Rating: 1/5
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
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- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
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Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
OIL PLEDGE
At the start of Russia's invasion, IEA member countries held 1.5 billion barrels in public reserves and about 575 million barrels under obligations with industry, according to the agency's website. The two collective actions of the IEA this year of 62.7 million barrels, which was agreed on March 1, and this week's 120 million barrels amount to 9 per cent of total emergency reserves, it added.
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WBO Light Welterweight champion - 2004-06
WBA Welterweight champion – 2006-08
WBO Welterweight champion – Feb 2009-Nov 2009
WBA Light Middleweight champion – 2010-12
WBC Middleweight champion – 2014-15
WBO Light Middleweight champion – Aug 2017-Dec 2017
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
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Dialysis is a way of cleaning your blood when your kidneys fail and can no longer do the job.
It gets rid of your body's wastes, extra salt and water, and helps to control your blood pressure. The main cause of kidney failure is diabetes and hypertension.
There are two kinds of dialysis — haemodialysis and peritoneal.
In haemodialysis, blood is pumped out of your body to an artificial kidney machine that filter your blood and returns it to your body by tubes.
In peritoneal dialysis, the inside lining of your own belly acts as a natural filter. Wastes are taken out by means of a cleansing fluid which is washed in and out of your belly in cycles.
It isn’t an option for everyone but if eligible, can be done at home by the patient or caregiver. This, as opposed to home haemodialysis, is covered by insurance in the UAE.
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
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Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Biography
Favourite drink: Must have karak chai and Chinese tea every day
Favourite non-Chinese food: Arabic sweets and Indian puri, small round bread of wheat flour
Favourite Chinese dish: Spicy boiled fish or anything cooked by her mother because of its flavour
Best vacation: Returning home to China
Music interests: Enjoys playing the zheng, a string musical instrument
Enjoys reading: Chinese novels, romantic comedies, reading up on business trends, government policy changes
Favourite book: Chairman Mao Zedong’s poems
