Deutsche Bank has warned that the Middle East must expect higher inflation or a rise in interest rates as a consequence of trillions of dollars of central bank monetary intervention spilling over from developed markets.
Anshu Jain, the co-chairman of Deutsche Bank's board and executive committee, also told business leaders in Dubai that the next phase of the global economic downturn could hinge upon what triggers central banks to start raising interest rates, currently at historic lows.
"It's an issue that really concerns us. There's never been a period of such unprecedented liquidity injections, and what'll happen when that trigger comes?" he said.
"The slightly worrying answer is nobody really knows. History hasn't given us that chapter yet. We're writing it."
The Federal Reserve in the United States and the European Central Bank have all pledged to step up bond-buying programmes with potentially unlimited sums of capital in an effort to stabilise economies that are still showing signs of fragility after the global financial crisis.
The Bank of England and Bank of Japan have also increased quantitative easing since the start of this year. Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest lender and one of Europe's largest investment banks, expects interest rates in developed markets to remain low "for some time".
"My concern for the US and this region as well is that this money tends to flow into very specific asset classes," such as real estate, said Mr Jain. "We're seeing some of that in our home market, Germany, as well, but we haven't seen core inflation yet."
If widespread increases in consumer prices materialise, authorities may be unable to contain rising core inflation for a sustained period of time and would have to choose between boosting job creation and containing inflation. This would have an impact on dollar-pegged economies such as the UAE and other Arabian Gulf states.
With the exception of Kuwait, GCC central banks are obliged to import US monetary policy because of their currencies' dollar pegging, giving them limited scope to tighten money supply.
Western policymakers would be faced with a "very pernicious problem", added Mr Jain, because they would "have to choose between two evils", either lower job creation or higher consumer prices.
In the meantime, regulators' response to the financial crisis was doing little to address the issue of global banks becoming "too big to fail" - that is, lenders whose systemic importance is such that taxpayers are in effect forced to rescue them in the event of their collapse.
"Regulators want banks to get smaller and more competitive. The reverse is happening," said Mr Jain. He expected that regulators were forcing a greater degree of consolidation on to the banking sector, partly linked to higher capital requirements brought about by the stringent Basel III rules, which compel banks to build up bigger capital buffers.
UBS has announced layoffs equivalent to almost a sixth of its workforce as the Swiss bank divests from operations such as bond trading that bring increased capital requirements. Credit Suisse also restructured its global investment banking operations this week, in a move said to be "in alignment with the new regulatory reality".
With increased consolidation, the number of global banks could fall, said Mr Jain. "A number of our peers are signalling a desire to step off the world stage. I think by the time we're done, no more than five or six global universal banks will be left standing.
"Clearly Deutsche Bank wants to be one of them. But we're not taking our position for granted."
ghunter@thenational.ae
Dubai World Cup Carnival Card:
6.30pm: Handicap US$135,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.05pm: Handicap $135,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
7.40pm: Zabeel Turf Listed $175,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Cape Verdi Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,600m
8.50pm: Handicap $135,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,600m
Illegal%20shipments%20intercepted%20in%20Gulf%20region
%3Cp%3EThe%20Royal%20Navy%20raid%20is%20the%20latest%20in%20a%20series%20of%20successful%20interceptions%20of%20drugs%20and%20arms%20in%20the%20Gulf%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMay%2011%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUS%20coastguard%20recovers%20%2480%20million%20heroin%20haul%20from%20fishing%20vessel%20in%20Gulf%20of%20Oman%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMay%208%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20US%20coastguard%20vessel%20USCGC%20Glen%20Harris%20seizes%20heroin%20and%20meth%20worth%20more%20than%20%2430%20million%20from%20a%20fishing%20boat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMarch%202%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Anti-tank%20guided%20missiles%20and%20missile%20components%20seized%20by%20HMS%20Lancaster%20from%20a%20small%20boat%20travelling%20from%20Iran%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOctober%209%2C%202022%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERoyal%20Navy%20frigate%20HMS%20Montrose%20recovers%20drugs%20worth%20%2417.8%20million%20from%20a%20dhow%20in%20Arabian%20Sea%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESeptember%2027%2C%202022%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20US%20Naval%20Forces%20Central%20Command%20reports%20a%20find%20of%202.4%20tonnes%20of%20heroin%20on%20board%20fishing%20boat%20in%20Gulf%20of%20Oman%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 178hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 280Nm at 1,350-4,200rpm
Transmission: seven-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh209,000
On sale: now
Anxiety and work stress major factors
Anxiety, work stress and social isolation are all factors in the recogised rise in mental health problems.
A study UAE Ministry of Health researchers published in the summer also cited struggles with weight and illnesses as major contributors.
Its authors analysed a dozen separate UAE studies between 2007 and 2017. Prevalence was often higher in university students, women and in people on low incomes.
One showed 28 per cent of female students at a Dubai university reported symptoms linked to depression. Another in Al Ain found 22.2 per cent of students had depressive symptoms - five times the global average.
It said the country has made strides to address mental health problems but said: “Our review highlights the overall prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression, which may long have been overlooked."
Prof Samir Al Adawi, of the department of behavioural medicine at Sultan Qaboos University in Oman, who was not involved in the study but is a recognised expert in the Gulf, said how mental health is discussed varies significantly between cultures and nationalities.
“The problem we have in the Gulf is the cross-cultural differences and how people articulate emotional distress," said Prof Al Adawi.
“Someone will say that I have physical complaints rather than emotional complaints. This is the major problem with any discussion around depression."
Daniel Bardsley
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The most expensive investment mistake you will ever make
When is the best time to start saving in a pension? The answer is simple – at the earliest possible moment. The first pound, euro, dollar or dirham you invest is the most valuable, as it has so much longer to grow in value. If you start in your twenties, it could be invested for 40 years or more, which means you have decades for compound interest to work its magic.
“You get growth upon growth upon growth, followed by more growth. The earlier you start the process, the more it will all roll up,” says Chris Davies, chartered financial planner at The Fry Group in Dubai.
This table shows how much you would have in your pension at age 65, depending on when you start and how much you pay in (it assumes your investments grow 7 per cent a year after charges and you have no other savings).
|
Age
|
$250 a month
|
$500 a month
|
$1,000 a month
|
|
25
|
$640,829
|
$1,281,657
|
$2,563,315
|
|
35
|
$303,219
|
$606,439
|
$1,212,877
|
|
45
|
$131,596
|
$263,191
|
$526,382
|
|
55
|
$44,351
|
$88,702
|
$177,403
|
KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wes%20Ball%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Owen%20Teague%2C%20Freya%20Allen%2C%20Kevin%20Durand%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
ULTRA PROCESSED FOODS
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
Leaderboard
64 - Gavin Green (MAL), Graeme McDowell (NIR)
65 - Henrik Stenson (SWE), Sebastian Soderberg (SWE), Adri Arnaus (ESP), Victor Perez (FRA), Jhonattan Vegas (VEN)
66 - Phil Mickelson (USA), Tom Lewis (ENG), Andy Sullivan (ENG), Ross Fisher (ENG), Aaron Rai (ENG), Ryan Fox (NZL)
67 - Dustin Johnson (USA), Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez (ESP), Lucas Herbert (AUS), Francesco Laporta (ITA), Joost Luiten (NED), Soren Kjeldsen (DEN), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
68 - Alexander Bjork (SWE), Matthieu Pavon (FRA), Adrian Meronk (POL), David Howell (ENG), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (RSA), Fabrizio Zanotti (PAR), Sean Crocker (USA), Scott Hend (AUS), Justin Harding (RSA), Jazz Janewattananond (THA), Shubhankar Sharma (IND), Renato Paratore (ITA)
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Results
2.15pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Arrab, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Mahaleel, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel.
3.15pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum handicap (TB) Dh200,000 2,000m; Winner: Dolmen, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
3.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Amang Alawda, Sandro Paiva, Bakhit Al Ketbi.
4.15pm: The Crown Prince of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 1,200m; Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
4.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m; Winner: Al Jazi, Jesus Rosales, Eric Lemartinel.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Guardians%20of%20the%20Galaxy%20Vol%203
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJames%20Gunn%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chris%20Pratt%2C%20Zoe%20Saldana%2C%20Dave%20Bautista%2C%20Vin%20Diesel%2C%20Bradley%20Cooper%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
RACE CARD
4pm Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
4.35pm Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m
5.10pm Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m
5.45pm Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m
6.20pm Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m
6.55pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m
7.30pm Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National
The biog
Name: Younis Al Balooshi
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Doctorate degree in forensic medicine at the University of Bonn
Hobbies: Drawing and reading books about graphic design
Who is Allegra Stratton?
- Previously worked at The Guardian, BBC’s Newsnight programme and ITV News
- Took up a public relations role for Chancellor Rishi Sunak in April 2020
- In October 2020 she was hired to lead No 10’s planned daily televised press briefings
- The idea was later scrapped and she was appointed spokeswoman for Cop26
- Ms Stratton, 41, is married to James Forsyth, the political editor of The Spectator
- She has strong connections to the Conservative establishment
- Mr Sunak served as best man at her 2011 wedding to Mr Forsyth
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Courses%20at%20Istituto%20Marangoni%2C%20Dubai
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUndergraduate%20courses%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EInterior%20Design%3B%20Product%20Design%3B%20Visual%20Design%3B%20Fashion%20Design%20%26amp%3B%20Accessories%3B%20Fashion%20Styling%20%26amp%3B%20Creative%20Direction%3B%20Fashion%20Business%3B%20Foundation%20in%20Fashion%3B%20Foundation%20in%20Design%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EProfessional%20courses%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFashion%20e-Commerce%20%26amp%3B%20Digital%20Marketing%3B%20Fashion%20Entrepreneurship%3B%20Fashion%20Luxury%20Retail%20and%20Visual%20Merchandising%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EShort%20courses%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFashion%20design%3B%20Fashion%20Image%20%26amp%3B%20Styling%3B%20Fashion%20Trend%20Forecasting%3B%20Interior%20Design%3B%20Digital%20Art%20in%20Fashion%3Cbr%3EMore%20information%20is%20at%20%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.istitutomarangoni.com%2Fen%3Futm_source%3DLocal%26utm_medium%3Dorganic%26utm_campaign%3Dgmb%26utm_content%3Ddubai%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3Ewww.istitutomarangoni.com%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The National photo project
Chris Whiteoak, a photographer at The National, spent months taking some of Jacqui Allan's props around the UAE, positioning them perfectly in front of some of the country's most recognisable landmarks. He placed a pirate on Kite Beach, in front of the Burj Al Arab, the Cheshire Cat from Alice in Wonderland at the Burj Khalifa, and brought one of Allan's snails (Freddie, which represents her grandfather) to the Dubai Frame. In Abu Dhabi, a dinosaur went to Al Ain's Jebel Hafeet. And a flamingo was taken all the way to the Hatta Mountains. This special project suitably brings to life the quirky nature of Allan's prop shop (and Allan herself!).
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
UAE SQUAD FOR ASIAN JIU-JITSU CHAMPIONSHIP
Men’s squad: Faisal Al Ketbi, Omar Al Fadhli, Zayed Al Kathiri, Thiab Al Nuaimi, Khaled Al Shehhi, Mohamed Ali Al Suwaidi, Farraj Khaled Al Awlaqi, Muhammad Al Ameri, Mahdi Al Awlaqi, Saeed Al Qubaisi, Abdullah Al Qubaisi and Hazaa Farhan
Women's squad: Hamda Al Shekheili, Shouq Al Dhanhani, Balqis Abdullah, Sharifa Al Namani, Asma Al Hosani, Maitha Sultan, Bashayer Al Matrooshi, Maha Al Hanaei, Shamma Al Kalbani, Haya Al Jahuri, Mahra Mahfouz, Marwa Al Hosani, Tasneem Al Jahoori and Maryam Al Amri
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
