Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza
Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend has increased the likelihood of oil reaching $100 per barrel and potentially complicating efforts by central banks and politicians to rein in persistent inflation, analysts said.
Brent, which closed up 0.79 per cent at $90.45 per barrel on Friday, has already been rising on concerns of the geopolitical tensions worsening in the Middle East.
Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel on Saturday in retaliation for the killing of senior members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard in an air strike in Syria on April 1.
It marks the first direct attack by Tehran on Israel rather than through proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and other locations. Iran also seized a container ship with links to Israel in the Arabian Sea.
Oil prices surged in the wake of the Syria strike, with Brent climbing above $90 a barrel for the first time since October due to traders' concerns about potential retaliation from Tehran.
“The chances of $100 a barrel, which was already in sight over the next few months, has now increased and the timing has moved forward, in the current state of geopolitical risks,” Iman Nasseri, managing director Middle East at FGE told The National.
Brent crude, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, has gained about 17 per cent since the beginning of the year on geopolitical risks, Opec+ extending its supply cuts and expectations of robust fuel demand during the summer months.
While a potential disruption of Iranian crude shipments will affect oil prices, the biggest risk to energy markets comes from a possible blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil bottleneck, analysts said.
About 30 per cent of global oil trade transits the Strait of Hormuz, with 70 per cent going to Asia, according to the International Energy Agency.
Tehran has previously indicated it could close the maritime route if necessary.
“It's still unlikely, in my opinion, for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz as it will have much wider implications for the region and the world and is some sort of calling for a war with the West and Middle East neighbours,” Mr Nasser said.
“But it will have serious implications for the energy markets and if it were to happen, major powers will certainly get involved to open the energy choke point within weeks if not days.”
Iran’s mission to the UN said the attack would be “deemed concluded” if Israel doesn’t strike back. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned it would retaliate against the source of any attack from any country in the region.
“I wouldn’t assume a retaliatory attack by Israel on Iran as a certainty. Suddenly, the stakes are much higher – for the US as well as for the Arab countries – to double down on efforts to de-escalate the tensions,” Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, told The National.
“Any further escalation risks pushing the Middle East into a full-blown regional war, jeopardising the entire region’s oil and gas supply,” she said.
“The US’ military involvement is the worst-case scenario, and I expect that will be averted.”
Trade flow disruptions
Oil production in the Middle East amounted to about 30.7 million barrels per day in 2022, accounting for about a third of the global crude output.
The threat to oil exports in the Strait of Hormuz comes as several major energy companies and ship operators are already avoiding the Red Sea due to attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militant group.
Trade flow disruptions caused by the Red Sea attacks boosted bunker fuel use, and longer shipping routes and faster vessel speeds saw Singapore bunkering reach highs, the agency said in a report last month.
“Disruption in the Middle East is likely to remain contained to shipping in the Red Sea … rather than a lasting blockage of the Strait of Hormuz or major disruption to oil production and transport out of Iran, Saudi and the rest of the GCC,” said Hasnain Malik, emerging and frontier markets equity strategy at Tellimer.
“Global demand and supply is likely more important than geopolitical risk for the foreseeable future.”
The agency this month revised its prediction for oil demand growth this year, citing lower-than-expected consumption and a decline in industrial activity in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries.
Demand for 2024 was adjusted to 1.2 million bpd, about 100,000 bpd lower compared to March's estimates.
However, Opec has held firm to its forecasts for global oil demand and economic growth in 2024 and 2025, with expectations of “robust” summer months for the crude market.
The group has forecast oil demand growth of 2.2 million bpd for this year and 1.8 million bpd for 2025, sticking to its estimates since February.
“There is some geopolitical risk premium already in the price and the events overnight are still relatively contained. So prices may stay above $90 but not expecting a significant jump,” said Amrita Sen, co-founder and head of research at Energy Aspects.
“They may even retrace if the market believes the situation will not flare further and we have long said no oil supply is at risk. That said the situation is still fluid so nothing can be ruled out,” she said.
Inflationary pressure
A significant increase in oil prices will raise the possibility of prolonged inflation.
US inflation increased again last month, frustrating hopes that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June and also signalling higher-for-longer rates in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 per cent in March, unchanged from its monthly gain in February, the Labour Department reported. But it rose annually at 3.5 per cent, a larger increase than the 3.2 per cent yearly rise in February.
“This report highlights the challenges in reducing inflation, which continues to strain household budgets. It also suggests that any easing of monetary policy, like lowering interest rates, is unlikely to happen soon,” the National Bank of Kuwait said.
“The data significantly impacted expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments. Analysts predict that a rate cut in June is highly unlikely,” the bank said.
SPECS
Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR
Engine: 5.7-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 362hp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Places to go for free coffee
- Cherish Cafe Dubai, Dubai Investment Park, are giving away free coffees all day.
- La Terrace, Four Points by Sheraton Bur Dubai, are serving their first 50 guests one coffee and four bite-sized cakes
- Wild & The Moon will be giving away a free espresso with every purchase on International Coffee Day
- Orange Wheels welcome parents are to sit, relax and enjoy goodies at ‘Café O’ along with a free coffee
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group B
Barcelona v Tottenham Hotspur, midnight
The currency conundrum
Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell, says almost every major currency has challenges right now. “The US has a huge budget deficit, the euro faces political friction and poor growth, sterling is bogged down by Brexit, China’s renminbi is hit by debt fears while slowing Chinese growth is hurting commodity exporters like Australia and Canada.”
Most countries now actively want a weak currency to make their exports more competitive. “China seems happy to let the renminbi drift lower, the Swiss are still running quantitative easing at full tilt and central bankers everywhere are actively talking down their currencies or offering only limited support," says Mr Mould.
This is a race to the bottom, and everybody wants to be a winner.
Why are you, you?
Why are you, you?
From this question, a new beginning.
From this question, a new destiny.
For you are a world, and a meeting of worlds.
Our dream is to unite that which has been
separated by history.
To return the many to the one.
A great story unites us all,
beyond colour and creed and gender.
The lightning flash of art
And the music of the heart.
We reflect all cultures, all ways.
We are a twenty first century wonder.
Universal ideals, visions of art and truth.
Now is the turning point of cultures and hopes.
Come with questions, leave with visions.
We are the link between the past and the future.
Here, through art, new possibilities are born. And
new answers are given wings.
Why are you, you?
Because we are mirrors of each other.
Because together we create new worlds.
Together we are more powerful than we know.
We connect, we inspire, we multiply illuminations
with the unique light of art.
Ben Okri,
Mobile phone packages comparison
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The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Normcore explained
Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
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MATCH INFO
Real Madrid 2 (Benzema 13', Kroos 28')
Barcelona 1 (Mingueza 60')
Red card: Casemiro (Real Madrid)
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Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Trippier bio
Date of birth September 19, 1990
Place of birth Bury, United Kingdom
Age 26
Height 1.74 metres
Nationality England
Position Right-back
Foot Right
FA Cup quarter-final draw
The matches will be played across the weekend of 21 and 22 March
Sheffield United v Arsenal
Newcastle v Manchester City
Norwich v Derby/Manchester United
Leicester City v Chelsea
TALE OF THE TAPE
Manny Pacquiao
Record: 59-6-2 (38 KOs)
Age: 38
Weight: 146lbs
Height: 166cm
Reach: 170cm
Jeff Horn
Record: 16-0-1 (11 KOs)
Age: 29
Weight: 146.2lbs
Height: 175cm
Reach: 173cm
Turkish Ladies
Various artists, Sony Music Turkey
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'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
The bio
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite travel destination: Maldives and south of France
Favourite pastime: Family and friends, meditation, discovering new cuisines
Favourite Movie: Joker (2019). I didn’t like it while I was watching it but then afterwards I loved it. I loved the psychology behind it.
Favourite Author: My father for sure
Favourite Artist: Damien Hurst
Thanksgiving meals to try
World Cut Steakhouse, Habtoor Palace Hotel, Dubai. On Thursday evening, head chef Diego Solis will be serving a high-end sounding four-course meal that features chestnut veloute with smoked duck breast, turkey roulade accompanied by winter vegetables and foie gras and pecan pie, cranberry compote and popcorn ice cream.
Jones the Grocer, various locations across the UAE. Jones’s take-home holiday menu delivers on the favourites: whole roast turkeys, an array of accompaniments (duck fat roast potatoes, sausages wrapped in beef bacon, honey-glazed parsnips and carrots) and more, as well as festive food platters, canapes and both apple and pumpkin pies.
Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, The Address Hotel, Dubai. This New Orleans-style restaurant is keen to take the stress out of entertaining, so until December 25 you can order a full seasonal meal from its Takeaway Turkey Feast menu, which features turkey, homemade gravy and a selection of sides – think green beans with almond flakes, roasted Brussels sprouts, sweet potato casserole and bread stuffing – to pick up and eat at home.
The Mattar Farm Kitchen, Dubai. From now until Christmas, Hattem Mattar and his team will be producing game- changing smoked turkeys that you can enjoy at home over the festive period.
Nolu’s, The Galleria Mall, Maryah Island Abu Dhabi. With much of the menu focused on a California inspired “farm to table” approach (with Afghani influence), it only seems right that Nolu’s will be serving their take on the Thanksgiving spread, with a brunch at the Downtown location from 12pm to 4pm on Friday.
Company%20Profile
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Formula One top 10 drivers' standings after Japan
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 306
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 234
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 192
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 148
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 111
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 82
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 65
9. Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso 48
10. Nico Hulkenberg, Renault 34
Mission%3A%20Impossible%20-%20Dead%20Reckoning%20Part%20One
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Christopher%20McQuarrie%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tom%20Cruise%2C%20Hayley%20Atwell%2C%20Pom%20Klementieff%2C%20Simon%20Pegg%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Real Madrid 2
Vinicius Junior (71') Mariano (90 2')
Barcelona 0
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
