In May 2019, the US Department of Energy wanted “molecules of US freedom to be exported to the world”, a Trump administration official said. Liquefied natural gas was part of the agenda of American “energy dominance”.
Last month, US energy envoy Amos Hochstein said that US LNG shipments to Europe were running at capacity and the gas crunch meant “people’s lives are at stake”.
With Europe facing the dual threat of Russia, which seems to be holding back gas, and China, which last week told its energy firms to secure winter fuel supplies “at all costs”, this rhetoric suggests the US would offer support in the face of two authoritarian rivals. The reality is very different.
The country’s LNG exports have risen sharply this year. Yet last month, the leading recipient of American LNG was China, with 17 per cent of the total. Other Asian countries mopped up 37 per cent. Latin America, suffering from low hydroelectric output because of drought, took 25 per cent, leaving Europe with the residue.
This is not surprising. Under the US’s free-market system, LNG goes to the highest bidder or where existing contracts dictate, not where diplomats might wish it.
The case of Russia is less clear. Gazprom, the monopoly pipeline exporter, has met its contractual commitments but not delivered additional gas, despite soaring prices. European storage sites run by Gazprom have remained near-empty, even while others have been filled as usual in expectation of winter. The gas major has concentrated on domestic storage to meet Russian demand.
Can Gazprom simply not produce more immediately, especially after a fire at a processing plant at the key Urengoy field in August? Is it running into pipeline bottlenecks in its home network? Is it maximising revenue by allowing prices to soar?
Or has the Kremlin taken a political decision not to send extra gas to pressure the EU into giving the final approvals for its Nord Stream II pipeline, which runs directly under the Baltic Sea to Germany to bypass Ukraine and Poland?
Another political worry is Algeria severing diplomatic relations with Morocco, which could stop the gas it flows to Spain transiting its Maghreb neighbour.
And a further, little-remarked driver of the crisis is the deliberate shutdown of the Netherlands’ Groningen field, the largest field in Europe and the mainstay of gas supply since 1963. It yielded almost 30 billion cubic metres in 2016, nearly a tenth of EU consumption, but because of production-related earth tremors, this will be cut to 3.9 billion cubic metres this year and stop entirely, except for emergencies, late next year.
This is not related to climate change but does vividly illustrate the danger of ceasing domestic fossil fuel output before the low-carbon replacements have caught up.
Europe’s need for gas imports will rise 10 per cent by 2025, to phase out coal and retire Germany’s and Belgium’s nuclear reactors.
The increasing take-up of battery cars and heat pumps for buildings will also increase electricity demand. Improved efficiency, especially in heating buildings, and more renewable generation will take longer to make a dent.
In the face of these contradictory trends, European gas policy seems to have hinged on three ideas: that Russia had ample gas production and transport capacity, that it would behave as a competitive supplier and not use its market power and that ample reasonably priced LNG would fill any gap.
Whether Germany should have encouraged Nord Stream II so strongly is one question. But having committed to it ... it was folly that US sanctions held pipeline completion hostage in the run-up to winter. The American side has shown that it can obstruct but not construct.
So Europe, including the UK, needs an energy policy that makes full use of interconnectivity, trade and free markets but is not dependent on any of the other leading power blocs.
First is the need to push ahead even faster with the renewable and energy efficiency programmes. These need greater diversity of geography and types of renewables and more interconnections. Batteries are helpful for a day or two, but too much reliance on north-west European offshore wind will fall foul of weeks-long dark, cold and still winter spells.
International links such as a proposed 10.5 gigawatt solar and wind project in Morocco, cabled up to Portugal, Spain, France and the UK, or the 1 gigawatt IceLink from Iceland’s geothermal and hydropower to the UK, might be future options.
Second is to rethink ideological opposition to nuclear and carbon capture in countries where that is a problem – notably Germany. If Germans do not want carbon dioxide safely stored under their offshore territory, their North Sea neighbours in Norway, the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands are willing.
That can keep a sustainable role for gas in the energy mix. It is probably too much to switch from demonising to encouraging European gas production. But more gas storage not under Gazprom’s thumb would help.
Thirdly, it is the need to create a market for hydrogen as a complement then replacement for gas and a way of storing energy. That will require governments, utilities and industries to commit to long-term purchases. Europe will generate hydrogen at home, but also import it as necessary from North Africa, the Arabian Gulf and other emerging suppliers.
And fourthly, to remember the dictum of the great economist Adam Smith, somewhat rephrased: “It is not from the benevolence of America, Russia or the Gulf that we expect our energy, but from their regard to their own interest.”
Robin Mills is the chief executive of Qamar Energy and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
How to vote in the UAE
1) Download your ballot https://www.fvap.gov/
2) Take it to the US Embassy
3) Deadline is October 15
4) The embassy will ensure all ballots reach the US in time for the November 3 poll
Zayed Sustainability Prize
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Normal People
Sally Rooney, Faber & Faber
Read more about the coronavirus
We Weren’t Supposed to Survive But We Did
We weren’t supposed to survive but we did.
We weren’t supposed to remember but we did.
We weren’t supposed to write but we did.
We weren’t supposed to fight but we did.
We weren’t supposed to organise but we did.
We weren’t supposed to rap but we did.
We weren’t supposed to find allies but we did.
We weren’t supposed to grow communities but we did.
We weren’t supposed to return but WE ARE.
Amira Sakalla
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE squad
Humaira Tasneem (c), Chamani Senevirathne (vc), Subha Srinivasan, NIsha Ali, Udeni Kuruppuarachchi, Chaya Mughal, Roopa Nagraj, Esha Oza, Ishani Senevirathne, Heena Hotchandani, Keveesha Kumari, Judith Cleetus, Chavi Bhatt, Namita D’Souza.
More coverage from the Future Forum
Getting there
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly to Johannesburg or Cape Town daily. Flights cost from about Dh3,325, with a flying time of 8hours and 15 minutes. From there, fly South African Airlines or Air Namibia to Namibia’s Windhoek Hosea Kutako International Airport, for about Dh850. Flying time is 2 hours.
The stay
Wilderness Little Kulala offers stays from £460 (Dh2,135) per person, per night. It is one of seven Wilderness Safari lodges in Namibia; www.wilderness-safaris.com.
Skeleton Coast Safaris’ four-day adventure involves joining a very small group in a private plane, flying to some of the remotest areas in the world, with each night spent at a different camp. It costs from US$8,335.30 (Dh30,611); www.skeletoncoastsafaris.com
Zayed Sustainability Prize
UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Results
United States beat UAE by three wickets
United States beat Scotland by 35 runs
UAE v Scotland – no result
United States beat UAE by 98 runs
Scotland beat United States by four wickets
Fixtures
Sunday, 10am, ICC Academy, Dubai - UAE v Scotland
Admission is free
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre, twin-turbocharged V8
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 630bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh810,000
Company name: Farmin
Date started: March 2019
Founder: Dr Ali Al Hammadi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: AgriTech
Initial investment: None to date
Partners/Incubators: UAE Space Agency/Krypto Labs
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Results
4pm: Maiden; Dh165,000 (Dirt); 1,400m
Winner: Solar Shower; William Lee (jockey); Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
4.35pm: Handicap; Dh165,000 (D); 2,000m
Winner: Thaaqib; Antonio Fresu; Erwan Charpy.
5.10pm: Maiden; Dh165,000 (Turf); 1,800m
Winner: Bila Shak; Adrie de Vries; Fawzi Nass
5.45pm: Handicap; Dh175,000 (D); 1,200m
Winner: Beachcomber Bay; Richard Mullen; Satish Seemar
6.20pm: Handicap; Dh205,000 (T); 1,800m
Winner: Muzdawaj; Jim Crowley; Musabah Al Muhairi
6.55pm: Handicap; Dh185,000 (D); 1,600m
Winner: Mazeed; Tadhg O’Shea; Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Handicap; Dh205,000 (T); 1,200m
Winner: Riflescope; Tadhg O’Shea; Satish Seemar.
Building boom turning to bust as Turkey's economy slows
Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage - hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle.
Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairytale for their investors.
The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry - a key sector - as the country's economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn.
After a long period of solid growth, Turkey's economy contracted 1.1 per cent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year.
The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 per cent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues.
The villas close to the town centre of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group's Burj Al Babas project.
But the development of 732 villas and a shopping centre - which began in 2014 - is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection.
It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure their debts.
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m
Winner: Arjan, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Jap Nazaa, Royston Ffrench, Irfan Ellahi.
6pm: Al Ruwais Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 1,200m
Winner: RB Lam Tara, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinal.
6.30pm: Shadwell Gold Cup Prestige Dh125,000 1,600m
Winner: AF Sanad, Bernardo Pinheiro, Khalifa Al Neyadi.
7pm: Shadwell Farm Stallions Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Patrick Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
7.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Canal, Harry Bentley, Satish Seemar.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
