Global trade is showing signs of a recovery from a deep pandemic-induced slump, but a full rebound will take longer and may be disrupted by the ongoing effects of Covid-19, according to the World Trade Organisation.
The global trade body now estimates a 9.2 per cent decline in the volume of world merchandise for 2020, compared with a deeper 12.9 per cent downturn forecast in April. Global trade is now forecast to grow 7.2 per cent in 2021, compared with a previous estimate for a 21.3 per cent expansion. That still remains well below the pre-pandemic level.
“Current data suggests a projected decline for the current year that is less severe,” the WTO said. “Strong trade performance in June and July have brought some signs of optimism for overall trade growth in 2020".
However, the pace of expansion may slow sharply once pent up demand is exhausted and business inventories have been replenished, it said.
“More negative outcomes are possible if there is a resurgence of Covid‑19 in the fourth quarter,” the WTO said.
The world trade body’s revised outlook rhymes with the International Monetary Fund’s latest assessment of the global economy. In June, the IMF had projected a 4.9 per cent contraction. However, “the picture today is less dire,” IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said on Tuesday.
“We now estimate that developments in the second and third quarters were somewhat better than expected, allowing for a small upward revision to our global forecast for 2020.”
Although, the recovery is better than anticipated in some industries, it is a still a “partial and uneven recovery in 2021”, she said.
“We expect global output to remain well below our pre-pandemic projections over the medium term. For almost all countries, this will be a setback to the improvement of living standards.”
The IMF is set to release its latest projection next week during the annual meetings it holds with the World Bank. The WTO on Tuesday said global GDP will contract 4.8 per cent in 2020 before rising 4.9 per cent next year.
The Covid-19 pandemic has severely disrupted the travel and tourism industry and upended global trade.
Governments and central banks have so far put more than $12 trillion of fiscal and monetary stimulus into the world economy to stabilise financial markets and protect jobs. However, the fragile recovery is under threat as countries face second and third waves of Covid-19.
The pandemic has claimed more than 1 million lives, and infected over 36 million people globally, while 27.12 million have recovered as of Wednesday, according to Worldometre, which tracks the disease.
“Whether the recovery can be sustained over the medium term will depend on the strength of investment and employment. Both could be undermined if confidence is dented by new outbreaks of Covid-19, which might force governments to impose additional lockdowns,” the WTO said.
“Risks to the forecast are firmly on the downside.”
There’s “limited upside potential” if a vaccine or other medical treatments prove to be effective against the disease, however, their impact will not be immediate, it added.
Global merchandise trade recorded its "sharpest ever one-period decline" in the second quarter of this year, falling 14.3 per cent compared to the previous quarter.
The steepest declines were in Europe and North America, where exports fell 24.5 per cent and 21.8 per cent, respectively. Asian exports in comparison were relatively unaffected, dropping 6.1 per cent, according to WTO data.
Imports, during the same period, were down 14.5 per cent in North America and 19.3 per cent in Europe but just 7.1 per cent in Asia.
Trade in most manufactured goods bottomed out in April before starting to recover in May and June, but the recovery was partial and incomplete. Automotive products recorded the biggest decline of any category, contracting 70 per cent in April and 53 per cent in the second quarter.
Trade in personal protective equipment recorded “explosive growth” of 92 per cent in the second quarter and jumped 122 per cent in May, the WTO said.
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Founders: Michele Ferrario, Nino Ulsamer and Freddy Lim
Started: established in 2016 and launched in July 2017
Based: Singapore, with offices in the UAE, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand
Sector: FinTech, wealth management
Initial investment: $500,000 in seed round 1 in 2016; $2.2m in seed round 2 in 2017; $5m in series A round in 2018; $12m in series B round in 2019; $16m in series C round in 2020 and $25m in series D round in 2021
Current staff: more than 160 employees
Stage: series D
Investors: EightRoads Ventures, Square Peg Capital, Sequoia Capital India
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
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Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
Manchester City (0) v Liverpool (3)
Uefa Champions League, quarter-final, second leg
Where: Etihad Stadium
When: Tuesday, 10.45pm
Live on beIN Sports HD
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
RACE CARD
6.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh82.500 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.05pm Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m
7.40pm Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (Turf) 2,410m
8.15pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm Dubai Trophy (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (T) 1,200m
10pm Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (T) 1,400m
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BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
(All games 4-3pm kick UAE time) Bayern Munich v Augsburg, Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen, Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin, Wolfsburg v Mainz , Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg, Union Berlin v RB Leipzig, Cologne v Schalke , Werder Bremen v Borussia Monchengladbach, Stuttgart v Arminia Bielefeld
