A money vendor counts US banknotes next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange in Beirut. Inflation in the country surged to 206 per cent last month. Reuters
A money vendor counts US banknotes next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange in Beirut. Inflation in the country surged to 206 per cent last month. Reuters
A money vendor counts US banknotes next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange in Beirut. Inflation in the country surged to 206 per cent last month. Reuters
A money vendor counts US banknotes next to Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange in Beirut. Inflation in the country surged to 206 per cent last month. Reuters

Business

Economy

Lebanon needs credible reforms to avoid destruction of economy, World Bank says

'Cost of inaction is colossal' for future of country's people

Sarmad Khan
Sarmad Khan

May 31, 2022

  • English
  • Arabic

Lebanon will have to adopt a credible, comprehensive and equitable macro-financial stabilisation programme if it wants to avoid the complete destruction of the country's social and economic networks, the World Bank has warned the country's leaders.

The struggling nation, facing its worst economic crisis, needs to stop the irreversible loss of human capital immediately, the lender said in a statement on Tuesday.

“Despite early warnings, Lebanon has lost precious time and numerous opportunities to adopt a path to reform its economic and financial system,” said Saroj Kumar Jha, the World Bank’s director of Mashreq Region.

“The cost of inaction is colossal, not only on daily lives of citizens but also on the future of the Lebanese people.”

Lebanon's economy collapsed after it defaulted on about $31 billion of Eurobonds in March 2020, with its currency sinking more than 90 per cent against the US dollar on the black market. Political bickering and indecision by the previous parliament forced the economy into a tailspin.

Inflation in the country has continued to surge and reached 206 per cent in April as the country elected a new parliament, which will have to put in place reforms to secure $3bn from the International Monetary Fund.

Lebanon’s economy contracted about 58 per cent between 2019 and 2021, with gross domestic product plummeting to $21.8bn in 2021, from about $52bn in 2019, said the World Bank.

The depression is among the world's worst economic collapses since the 1850s, the Washington lender said in January. It is the largest contraction on a list of 193 countries.

“The private sector is severely constrained by a paralysed financial system,” the bank said on Tuesday. "Lower firm productivity and revenue generation have caused widespread layoffs and bankruptcies.

“Assuming continued no policy reform, real GDP is projected to contract by 6.5 per cent in 2022.”

The World Bank urged Lebanese authorities to adopt a new monetary policy framework that would instil confidence and stability in the exchange rate and make progress on a debt-restructuring programme that would achieve short-term fiscal space and medium-term debt sustainability.

A baker holds up a seeded white loaf of bread at a bakery in Beirut, Lebanon, which faces a food crisis because of war in Europe. All photos: Bloomberg
A baker holds up a seeded white loaf of bread at a bakery in Beirut, Lebanon, which faces a food crisis because of war in Europe. All photos: Bloomberg
A worker opens a sack of flour to prepare bread dough in Beirut. Lebanon's wheat importers are already rationing flour sales to counter panic buying.
A worker opens a sack of flour to prepare bread dough in Beirut. Lebanon's wheat importers are already rationing flour sales to counter panic buying.
Lebanon, already suffering from years of financial crisis, has faced new problems since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.
Lebanon, already suffering from years of financial crisis, has faced new problems since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.
Lebanon normally buys 96 per cent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
Lebanon normally buys 96 per cent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
The war between two of the world's biggest wheat exporters has sparked fears of a food crisis in many Middle Eastern countries.
The war between two of the world's biggest wheat exporters has sparked fears of a food crisis in many Middle Eastern countries.
Lebanese importers are struggling to get dollars from a subsidy programme to buy wheat from new suppliers.
Lebanese importers are struggling to get dollars from a subsidy programme to buy wheat from new suppliers.
As countries try to secure new sources of wheat, cash-strapped Lebanon's small market of 6 million people could go without.
As countries try to secure new sources of wheat, cash-strapped Lebanon's small market of 6 million people could go without.
Lebanon lacks grain storage after silos were destroyed in the 2020 Beirut Port blast.
Lebanon lacks grain storage after silos were destroyed in the 2020 Beirut Port blast.
The country needs 50,000 tonnes of wheat to feed its people for a month.
The country needs 50,000 tonnes of wheat to feed its people for a month.
Subsidies keep the price of bread in Lebanon artificially low.
Subsidies keep the price of bread in Lebanon artificially low.
But a loaf now costs on average 10,000 Lebanese pounds, or $0.45, more than six times the price in 2019.
But a loaf now costs on average 10,000 Lebanese pounds, or $0.45, more than six times the price in 2019.
Millers estimate that without subsidies, prices could more than double.
Millers estimate that without subsidies, prices could more than double.
Analysts fear that could cause social unrest in a country where three quarters of the population now live in poverty.
Analysts fear that could cause social unrest in a country where three quarters of the population now live in poverty.

The multilateral lender also called for comprehensive restructuring of the financial sector to ensure solvency of the country’s banking, reframe fiscal policy and implement growth-enhancing reform.

Mr Jha said that two-and-a-half years into the crisis, "Lebanon has yet to embark on a comprehensive reform-and-recovery programme to stop the country from further sinking”.

“Continued deliberate delay in addressing drivers of the crisis represents a threat not only at the socio-economic level but also a risk of a systemic failing of state institutions and pressure on an already fragile social peace," he said.

The World Bank board also approved Lebanon’s Performance and Learning Review, which summarises implementation progress under the lender’s Lebanon Country Partnership Framework — a tool that guides the lender's support for a member country — over fiscal years 2017 to 2022.

The PLR also extended the CPF period by another year to advance urgently needed socioeconomic recovery programmes, aimed at the poor, and support macroeconomic and structural reforms in the country, it said.

The lender has restructured its portfolio by cancelling underperforming projects and allocated resources to newly identified priorities that include Covid-19 emergency support and vaccine distribution, and a targeted cash-transfer programme to support vulnerable households, among others.

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1. Julian Alaphilippe (FRA) Deceuninck-QuickStep  4:39:05

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3. Primoz Roglic (SLV) Jumbo-Visma same time 

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Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

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• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.

• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.

• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.

• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.

• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases -  but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.

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Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor

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The biog

Age: 46

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Hobby: Reading history books

Loves: Sports

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20front-axle%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E218hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20touring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E402km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh215%2C000%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
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4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
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Director: Shahad Ameen

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Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

Power: 254hp

Torque: 390Nm

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7.40pm Zabeel Turf – Listed (TB) $88,000 (Turf) 2,000m

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  • By 2040, global cancer cases are on track to reach 30 million 
  • 70 per cent of cancer deaths occur in low and middle-income countries 
  • This rate is expected to increase to 75 per cent by 2030 
  • At least one third of common cancers are preventable 
  • Genetic mutations play a role in 5 per cent to 10 per cent of cancers 
  • Up to 3.7 million lives could be saved annually by implementing the right health
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Travelling before 7am on a Sunday could save up to four hours per year on a 30-minute commute.

The day was the least congestion in Abu Dhabi in 2019 was Tuesday, August 13.

The highest levels of traffic were found on Sunday, November 10.

Drivers in Abu Dhabi lost 41 hours spent in traffic jams in rush hour during 2019

 

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What should do investors do now?

What does the S&P 500's new all-time high mean for the average investor? 

Should I be euphoric?

No. It's fine to be pleased about hearty returns on your investments. But it's not a good idea to tie your emotions closely to the ups and downs of the stock market. You'll get tired fast. This market moment comes on the heels of last year's nosedive. And it's not the first or last time the stock market will make a dramatic move.

So what happened?

It's more about what happened last year. Many of the concerns that triggered that plunge towards the end of last have largely been quelled. The US and China are slowly moving toward a trade agreement. The Federal Reserve has indicated it likely will not raise rates at all in 2019 after seven recent increases. And those changes, along with some strong earnings reports and broader healthy economic indicators, have fueled some optimism in stock markets.

"The panic in the fourth quarter was based mostly on fears," says Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. "The fundamentals have mostly held up, while the fears have gone away and the fears were based mostly on emotion."

Should I buy? Should I sell?

Maybe. It depends on what your long-term investment plan is. The best advice is usually the same no matter the day — determine your financial goals, make a plan to reach them and stick to it.

"I would encourage (investors) not to overreact to highs, just as I would encourage them not to overreact to the lows of December," Mr Schutte says.

All the same, there are some situations in which you should consider taking action. If you think you can't live through another low like last year, the time to get out is now. If the balance of assets in your portfolio is out of whack thanks to the rise of the stock market, make adjustments. And if you need your money in the next five to 10 years, it shouldn't be in stocks anyhow. But for most people, it's also a good time to just leave things be.

Resist the urge to abandon the diversification of your portfolio, Mr Schutte cautions. It may be tempting to shed other investments that aren't performing as well, such as some international stocks, but diversification is designed to help steady your performance over time.

Will the rally last?

No one knows for sure. But David Bailin, chief investment officer at Citi Private Bank, expects the US market could move up 5 per cent to 7 per cent more over the next nine to 12 months, provided the Fed doesn't raise rates and earnings growth exceeds current expectations. We are in a late cycle market, a period when US equities have historically done very well, but volatility also rises, he says.

"This phase can last six months to several years, but it's important clients remain invested and not try to prematurely position for a contraction of the market," Mr Bailin says. "Doing so would risk missing out on important portfolio returns."

Global state-owned investor ranking by size

1.

United States

2.

China

3.

UAE

4.

Japan

5

Norway

6.

Canada

7.

Singapore

8.

Australia

9.

Saudi Arabia

10.

South Korea
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Evacuations to France hit by controversy
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Specs

Engine: 51.5kW electric motor

Range: 400km

Power: 134bhp

Torque: 175Nm

Price: From Dh98,800

Available: Now

The bio

Studied up to grade 12 in Vatanappally, a village in India’s southern Thrissur district

Was a middle distance state athletics champion in school

Enjoys driving to Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah with family

His dream is to continue working as a social worker and help people

Has seven diaries in which he has jotted down notes about his work and money he earned

Keeps the diaries in his car to remember his journey in the Emirates

GAC GS8 Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh149,900

MO
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What sanctions would be reimposed?

Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:

  • An arms embargo
  • A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
  • A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
  • A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
  • Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
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UAE currency
FIXTURES

All times UAE ( 4 GMT)

Friday
Saint-Etienne v Montpellier (10.45pm)

Saturday
Monaco v Caen (7pm)
Amiens v Bordeaux (10pm)
Angers v Toulouse (10pm)
Metz v Dijon (10pm)
Nantes v Guingamp (10pm)
Rennes v Lille (10pm)

Sunday
Nice v Strasbourg (5pm)
Troyes v Lyon (7pm)
Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain (11pm)

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THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

Torque: 780Nm

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Price: From Dh1,350,000

On sale: Available for preorder now

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Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors

Power: Combined output 920hp

Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic

Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km

On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025

Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000

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Director: Kaouther Ben Hania

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Normcore explained

Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.

The specs: 2019 Infiniti QX50

Price, base: Dh138,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 268hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm @ 4,400rpm
Fuel economy: 6.7L / 100km (estimate)

Updated: June 01, 2022, 10:39 AM`
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