Qinhuangdao, a city on the Yellow Sea, is China's largest coal shipping port. Huge mounds of coal are now clearly visible on satellite images.
Are gluts from coal to copper to cotton a harbinger of the end of the "commodities super-cycle"?
The super-cycle theory became popular around the middle of the past decade, as economic growth and urbanisation in Asia drove the prices of metals, food and energy to record levels.
In turn, this helped to fuel booms in the Middle East, Russia, Australia, Brazil and Canada. Today, stockpiles of key materials and other indicators, such as lower electricity consumption and idle shipyards, suggest a slowdown in Chinese growth.
Zhang Hongxia, the chief of the largest cotton textile maker in China, observed last week, "The Chinese economy is only at the beginning of a harsh winter. Everything from coal to steel inventories are piling up".
Meanwhile, Australia's resources minister, Martin Ferguson, says "the resources boom is over". His country is a major supplier of coal, iron, copper, uranium and gas to China.
And the head of investor relations at Vale, the world's leading iron ore producer, says: "We are not going to see the spectacular growth rates. The golden years are gone."
The iron-ore price dropped below US$100 per tonne for the first time since December 2009.
In the short term, China is suffering from a tepid recovery in the United States, and the continuing crisis in Europe, two of its main export markets.
Close trading partners South Korea and Taiwan would be heavily affected by a fall in Chinese growth.
India and Brazil are also struggling with slowing economies, as are smaller Asian tigers such as Vietnam. Without radical reform, currently mired in messy domestic politics, the Indian miracle seems to be over, for now at least.
In the longer term, China faces the difficult transition from an export-driven economy to relying more on domestic demand. Its working-age population will begin shrinking by 2018, a function of its "one-child" policy, and wages are rising 15 to 20 per cent per year.
For all the talk about "Chindia", the boom, at least in oil, was largely a Chinese phenomenon. China made up 45 per cent of new global oil demand this century; the Middle East, whose consumption was driven by high prices for its main export, an additional 26 per cent. India represented a further 10 per cent, while demand in developed economies has been falling steadily since 2005.
As it did during the global economic crisis, China could launch another massive stimulus package.
However, this is unlikely to come before the new leadership is installed before the 18th party congress in October.
The oil-exporting countries thus have to contend with a much less favourable external environment than they enjoyed in the first decade of this century. In retrospect, they allowed oil prices to go too high in mid-2008, and again this year, by investing insufficiently in new production capacity.
If the world economy and oil demand does slow, the GCC countries have sufficient financial resources to cut production to defend prices.
Sanctions on Iran also continue to buoy oil markets. But that does not address the longer-term problem, that a slower world economy and more measured Asian growth may not sustain the record oil prices on which they have planned their budgets.
If it is any comfort, should oil prices drop sharply, Iran, Russia and Venezuela will run into severe economic trouble before the GCC does.
Those countries should hope that those terrifying, teetering mounds of copper ingots in Chinese warehouses and car parks are not a metaphor for a commodities boom about to come to a crashing end.
Robin Mills is the head of consulting at Manaar Energy, and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis and Capturing Carbon
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War on waste
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
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Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
US tops drug cost charts
The study of 13 essential drugs showed costs in the United States were about 300 per cent higher than the global average, followed by Germany at 126 per cent and 122 per cent in the UAE.
Thailand, Kenya and Malaysia were rated as nations with the lowest costs, about 90 per cent cheaper.
In the case of insulin, diabetic patients in the US paid five and a half times the global average, while in the UAE the costs are about 50 per cent higher than the median price of branded and generic drugs.
Some of the costliest drugs worldwide include Lipitor for high cholesterol.
The study’s price index placed the US at an exorbitant 2,170 per cent higher for Lipitor than the average global price and the UAE at the eighth spot globally with costs 252 per cent higher.
High blood pressure medication Zestril was also more than 2,680 per cent higher in the US and the UAE price was 187 per cent higher than the global price.
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
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Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
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The White Lotus: Season three
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RedCrow Intelligence Company Profile
Started: 2016
Founders: Hussein Nasser Eddin, Laila Akel, Tayeb Akel
Based: Ramallah, Palestine
Sector: Technology, Security
# of staff: 13
Investment: $745,000
Investors: Palestine’s Ibtikar Fund, Abu Dhabi’s Gothams and angel investors
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GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
Tomorrow 2021
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Real Madrid 2
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- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
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- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
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Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Match info
Karnataka Tuskers 110-3
J Charles 35, M Pretorius 1-19, Z Khan 0-16
Deccan Gladiators 111-5 in 8.3 overs
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Pools
A – Dubai College, Deira International School, Al Ain Amblers, Warriors
B – Dubai English Speaking College, Repton Royals, Jumeirah College, Gems World Academy
C – British School Al Khubairat, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Yasmina Academy
D – Dubai Exiles, Jumeirah English Speaking School, English College, Bahrain Colts
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2018 – Dubai College
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Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
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Director Ashutosh Gowariker
Produced Ashutosh Gowariker, Rohit Shelatkar, Reliance Entertainment
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Nickname: Mama Nadia to children, staff and parents
Education: Bachelors degree in English Literature with Social work from UAE University
As a child: Kept sweets on the window sill for workers, set aside money to pay for education of needy families
Holidays: Spends most of her days off at Senses often with her family who describe the centre as part of their life too
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What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
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• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
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The biog
Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
