Yemeni fighters loyal to the internationally-recognised president, Abdrabu Mansur Hadi, drive in convoy in the Yafa area some 180 kilometres north of the port city of Aden on August 9, 2016. Nabil Hassan/AFP
Yemeni fighters loyal to the internationally-recognised president, Abdrabu Mansur Hadi, drive in convoy in the Yafa area some 180 kilometres north of the port city of Aden on August 9, 2016. Nabil HasShow more

Yemen rebels’ new ‘government’ unlikely to gain legitimacy: analysts



Abu Dhabi // A “national salvation” government announced by Yemen’s rebel alliance is unlikely to gain international legitimacy and will undermine the prospects of negotiations, observers said on Monday.

The Iran-backed alliance of Houthi rebels and military and political forces loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh formed a “supreme political council” in July that was described as unconstitutional by the United Nations. The decision to set up the council in part led to the collapse of peace talks in August.

On Sunday that council appointed Abdel Aziz bin Habtoor, the former Aden governor, to form a government of “national salvation” aimed at rivalling the internationally-recognised administration of president Abdrabu Mansur Hadi, which is based in Aden.

The formation of a parallel rebel government in the north of the country comes after the Hadi government said it would move Yemen’s central bank from Sanaa to Aden.

“The move to form a government is the latest in a series of tit-for-tat escalatory steps taken by both sides as a result of the collapse of peace talks in Kuwait,” said April Longley Alley, the International Crisis Group’s Yemen analyst. “The decision is clearly unhelpful for the prospects of a compromise settlement.”

The UN special envoy to Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, is in Riyadh for consultations on the stalled talks. There had been some optimism around a plan presented privately by the US secretary of state John Kerry to other members of the so-called “quad” of countries that back Mr Hadi – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the United States and Britain.

The Houthi-Saleh delegation to the Kuwait talks had balked at a plan by Mr Ahmed based on a UN Security Council resolution that would have the rebels hand over heavy weapons and withdraw from territory ahead of the formation of a unity government. Mr Kerry’s plan would see the security measures and the political process take place simultaneously.

“At this point, there is a reasonable compromise solution on the table through the quad initiative ... This settlement could provide wins to both sides and end an increasingly devastating war,” Ms Alley said. “But, its shelf-life is limited, and could be overcome by the lack of diplomatic momentum and by events on the ground.”

As the Hadi government initiates an economic siege of the rebel-controlled north, and the rebel alliance attempts to bolster their claim to legitimacy, fighting has increased and the geographic split has widened.

“Now they’re going to appoint ministers, and they are going to take that government to the parliament for a vote a confidence, and try to take more steps toward having a superficial legitimacy within their territory,” said Mustapha Noman, a former deputy foreign minister of Yemen. “It’s just creating more of a mess rather than helping.”

The Houthi revolutionary councils that have acted as de facto administrators in territory outside government control could be dissolved and new councils with greater representation by Mr Saleh’s General People’s Congress party formed as a result of the move, Mr Noman said.

Mr Bin Habtoor, the man appointed to form the new rebel government, was chosen by Mr Hadi as governor of Aden in December 2014 – after the Houthis had taken Sanaa but before the Saudi-led coalition intervened in the war in late March of last year.

“There is a YouTube video making the rounds of an interview from March 2015 where [Bin Habtoor] said that there must be a foreign intervention in Yemen against the Houthis,” Mr Noman said.

After the Houthis were defeated in Aden by coalition and local forces last year, Mr Bin Habtoor was dismissed from his post and he moved to Sanaa. The fact that he does not have a power base in Sanaa, and is a southerner who can help give the appearance of a national government, were likely why he was chosen, Mr Noman said. “The so-called ‘chairman’ of the council is a northerner so they could not appoint another northerner in the post,” he added.

As fighting continued on Monday, the United Nations humanitarian operations chief visited rebel-controlled areas of Yemen, including the port of Hodeidah.

Stephen O’Brien, undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator, was shown infrastructure damaged by air strikes and met aid workers in the port, the biggest in northern Yemen.

tkhan@thenational.ae

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

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1947
Ferrari’s road-car company is formed and its first badged car, the 125 S, rolls off the assembly line

1962
250 GTO is unveiled

1969
Fiat becomes a Ferrari shareholder, acquiring 50 per cent of the company

1972
The Fiorano circuit, Ferrari’s racetrack for development and testing, opens

1976
First automatic Ferrari, the 400 Automatic, is made

1987
F40 launched

1988
Enzo Ferrari dies; Fiat expands its stake in the company to 90 per cent

2002
The Enzo model is announced

2010
Ferrari World opens in Abu Dhabi

2011
First four-wheel drive Ferrari, the FF, is unveiled

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2014
Fiat Chrysler announces the split of Ferrari from the parent company

2015
Ferrari launches on Wall Street

2017
812 Superfast unveiled; Ferrari celebrates its 70th anniversary

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The bio

Job: Coder, website designer and chief executive, Trinet solutions

School: Year 8 pupil at Elite English School in Abu Hail, Deira

Role Models: Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk

Dream City: San Francisco

Hometown: Dubai

City of birth: Thiruvilla, Kerala

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Rating: 1/5