BEIRUT // When two days of Syria peace talks arranged by Russia, Turkey and Iran wrapped up in Astana, they were quickly hailed as a success by their organisers.
The meeting saw the foreign powers draw closer together and agree to reinforce a ceasefire between rebel and government forces. Russia, which backs the government of Bashar Al Assad as a belligerent in the war, said it hoped the talks would bolster the stalled UN peace process in Geneva and that Kremlin officials would meet opposition representatives later this week.
But despite the optimism from its backers, the talks that ended on Tuesday produced no major breakthroughs and peace continues to remain distant for Syria’s warring parties.
Representatives of Syria’s government and opposition were in Astana, but remained too hostile to take part in face-to-face negotiations, leaving the actual deal making to Russia, Turkey and Iran. The three powers are all involved in Syria’s war with troops on the ground and Iran and Turkey also command proxy forces in the conflict.
But in a war where factions and even individual units on the same side can have diverging goals, the ability of the guarantors to control their allies can be limited.
Turkey’s hold on its proxies will soon be put to the test as Syrian government troops move near to Turkish-backed rebel units north-east of Aleppo.
Ankara intervened militarily in the war in August last year, with Turkish forces supporting rebels fighting against ISIL and the Kurdish YPG faction.
Turkey has deliberately kept its proxies out of the fight against government forces, despite the pleas for help by rebel forces who were besieged and ultimately driven from nearby Aleppo.
But stopping its proxies from fighting government forces might not be easy for Ankara as rebel and government lines start to meet near the ISIL-held town of Al Bab. Both forces are now pushing for the same territory.
While Turkey has not looked for a fight with Syrian government forces and is a major player in the peace process, Ankara appears ready to hold territory its proxies have captured. On Tuesday, Turkey’s deputy prime minister Numan Kurtmulus said his country will not hand over Al Bab after driving ISIL from the town.
If the fragile ceasefire in Syria holds, rebel and government negotiators are scheduled to meet in Geneva to continue with the United Nations peace process on February 8. But it remains difficult to see a solution emerging unless the sides actually sit down and negotiate with one another or at least make concession offers through their foreign backers.
Key issues have yet to be touched on. There have been no signs that the Syrian government is ready to talk about the future of Mr Al Assad, who the rebels want removed. And the government has continued to promise to drive its opponents from the country.
The rebels are also not in the best spot to negotiate. The loss of Aleppo last month was a major blow, depriving them of a key bargaining chip.
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Read: Staying alive inside besieged Aleppo: a reporter's notebook
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And as rebels find themselves increasingly cornered in Syria, their foreign backers seem to be abandoning them. While Turkey continues to support rebel proxy forces in northern Syria, it has also sidled closer to Russia, which has focused its war effort on rebel forces elsewhere in the country and been accused by the international community of carrying out war crimes in its efforts.
Russia and Turkey are now conducting joint air strikes against ISIL in the country as their relationship grows stronger.
The United States, which was a main representative of Syria's rebels at past negotiations, saw its role in talks sidelined during the final days of the Obama administration.
President Donald Trump has promised a different direction on Syria and appears to be open to co-operating with Russia against ISIL in the country. However, the US could also be turning its attention away from the conflict, with the Trump administration not sending any delegates to the Astana talks despite an invitation.
To Syria’s rebels, it likely feels like their friends are turning their backs on them and uniting with their enemy, Russia.
Finding peace through the new Russian, Turkish and Iranian-backed Astana process may also prove difficult given that some major factions in the war did not attend the talks.
By default, ISIL and Jabhat Fatah Al Sham were excluded from the meeting and from any potential settlement as they are extremist organisations.
But also excluded was the YPG, the dominant Kurdish faction, which controls much of Syria’s border with Turkey and has been the key US ally on the ground against ISIL. The YPG has actively tried to avoid conflict with the Syrian government, but is locked in combat with Turkey — which considers the YPG a terrorist group — and its proxy militias in northern Syria.
As the Astana talks got under way, the YPG made it clear they would not consider themselves bound by any agreements brokered at the meeting.
While Syrian rebels have long accused the YPG of colluding with the regime, the group has aspirations of post-war autonomy and has shown that it will confront any groups that try to roll back the territorial gains they have made. Any peace deal that sidelines Syria’s Kurds seems to ensure that fighting will continue.
jwood@thenational.ae