After confounding expectations this year, the US economy is poised to play a central role in American politics in 2024 even as the battle to tame inflation appears to be won.
Economic growth has exceeded projections, inflation has significantly moderated, job gains are strong while unemployment is at a near-historic low, and consumer spending is still healthy.
Compare this to the UK and Europe, where recession fears persist, or to economic rival China, which is staring at deflation.
Indeed, the US economy was resilient this year.
And it will play a defining role in 2024, with momentous implications for borrowers, markets, the global economy – and the US presidential election.
Sticking the soft landing
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is on the verge of accomplishing something exceptionally rare: achieving a soft landing.
Fears of a recession dominated the earlier part of the year, but those have since given way to growing optimism that the Fed can achieve the much-fabled scenario of bringing inflation down without a steep downturn.
“My baseline is that we'll achieve a soft landing,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNBC before the Fed's December 12-13 policy meeting.
The Fed's preferred inflation metric has climbed down significantly since last year to its current 2.9 per cent level, and the central bank expects this to drop further.
Part of what has made the Fed's tightening cycle remarkable is that much of it occurred without widespread job losses. The unemployment rate still sits below 4 per cent, and employers are still adding a healthy number of jobs.
“Everything indicates that inflation has gone down and that the Fed has accomplished its task of lowering inflation,” said Brenda Samaniego de la Parra, assistant professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz's Economics Department.
With interest rates at their peak, they are expected to be a further burden for consumers next year. Borrowing costs will hurt consumers even more with pandemic-era savings used up. Economic growth will slow – although still be healthy – and consumer spending will dip.
Meanwhile, the labour market is expected to cool and wage growth to fall closer in line to inflation. All of this points to the probability of a soft landing.
“Everything seems fairly sustainable right now, in terms of the likelihood of a soft landing,” Ms de la Parra said.
A surprise twist?
Those who expect everything to neatly fall into place for the US economy next year are likely to be disappointed.
If this year has proven anything, it is how unpredictable the economy can be. When placed against the backdrop of geopolitics, it only complicates things further.
Forecasters largely believed the US was heading for a recession this year. That did not happen – in fact, the economy showed remarkable strength.
And the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank sparked fears of a new global financial crisis that roiled markets and caused the Fed to slightly alter course in its tightening cycle.
The outbreak of war in Gaza also brought fears that it could have ripple effects across the global economy, although so far it is proving less consequential to inflation than the war in Ukraine did.
There is also the possibility that the Fed will keep rates too high for too long, which could create a steep economic downturn. That alongside the simultaneous threat of not raising them high enough creates what officials call a “two-sided risk”.
“I think I think it's fair to say there is a lot of uncertainty about going forward. We've seen the economy move in surprising directions,” Jerome Powell told reporters during a news conference this month.
This uncertainty will be felt as soon as January, when the federal government faces a potential shutdown.
Sour on the economy, voters head to polls
Expect the economy to be a determining factor in the 2024 US presidential election.
For all the progress made in lowering inflation this year, there remains a disconnect as voters believe their financials are worse off than before President Joe Biden assumed office.
With a majority of Americans disapproving of Mr Biden's handling of the economy, expect the incumbent to tour across the US touting his “Bidenomics” agenda and continue to go after junk fees such as exorbitant hotel surcharges.
And with voters believing economy-related issues to be the biggest problem facing the US today, Mr Biden has a tall task ahead of him.
Expect former president Donald Trump – the Republican Party's likely candidate – to hammer Mr Biden on the economy that he would say has left Americans behind.
On November 5, voters will vote with their wallets on whom they can best trust to safeguard their financial futures. And while markets will rejoice at Mr Trump's promised tax cuts should he return to power, the global economy must brace for a return to his isolationist agenda.
America's foes and allies will be holding their breath.
Super heroes
Iron Man
Reduced risk of dementia
Alcohol consumption could be an issue
Hulk
Cardiac disease, stroke and dementia from high heart rate
Spider-Man
Agility reduces risk of falls
Increased risk of obesity and mental health issues
Black Panther
Vegetarian diet reduces obesity
Unknown risks of potion drinking
Black Widow
Childhood traumas increase risk of mental illnesses
Thor
He's a god
Tank warfare
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
Results
2.30pm: Expo 2020 Dubai – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 1,600m; Winner: Barakka, Ray Dawson (jockey), Ahmad bin Harmash (trainer)
3.05pm: Now Or Never – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: One Idea, Andrea Atzeni, Doug Watson
3.40pm: This Is Our Time – Handicap (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Perfect Balance, Tadhg O’Shea, Bhupat Seemar
4.15pm: Visit Expo 2020 – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Kaheall, Richard Mullen, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.50pm: The World In One Place – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1.900m; Winner: Castlebar, Adrie de Vries, Helal Al Alawi
5.25pm: Vision – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Shanty Star, Richard Mullen, Rashed Bouresly
6pm: Al Wasl Plaza – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Jadwal, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson
Read more about the coronavirus
The biog
Name: Timothy Husband
Nationality: New Zealand
Education: Degree in zoology at The University of Sydney
Favourite book: Lemurs of Madagascar by Russell A Mittermeier
Favourite music: Billy Joel
Weekends and holidays: Talking about animals or visiting his farm in Australia
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
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SPEC%20SHEET
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Hurricanes 31-31 Lions
Wellington Hurricanes:
Tries: Gibbins, Laumape, Goosen, Fifita tries, Barrett
Conversions: Barrett (4)
Penalties: Barrett
British & Irish Lions:
Tries: Seymour (2), North
Conversions: Biggar (2)
Penalties: Biggar (4)
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
STAY%2C%20DAUGHTER
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYasmin%20Azad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESwift%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ipaf in numbers
Established: 2008
Prize money: $50,000 (Dh183,650) for winners and $10,000 for those on the shortlist.
Winning novels: 13
Shortlisted novels: 66
Longlisted novels: 111
Total number of novels submitted: 1,780
Novels translated internationally: 66
FIGHT CARD
1. Featherweight 66kg
Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)
2. Lightweight 70kg
Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)
3. Welterweight 77kg
Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)
4. Lightweight 70kg
Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)
5. Featherweight 66kg
Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)
6. Catchweight 85kg
Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)
7. Featherweight 66kg
Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)
8. Catchweight 73kg
Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Abdipatta Abdizhali (KGZ)
9. Featherweight 66kg
Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)
10. Catchweight 90kg
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Watford v Leicester City (3.30pm)
Brighton v Arsenal (6pm)
West Ham v Wolves (8.30pm)
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace (10.45pm)
Sunday
Newcastle United v Sheffield United (5pm)
Aston Villa v Chelsea (7.15pm)
Everton v Liverpool (10pm)
Monday
Manchester City v Burnley (11pm)
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
The story of Edge
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, established Edge in 2019.
It brought together 25 state-owned and independent companies specialising in weapons systems, cyber protection and electronic warfare.
Edge has an annual revenue of $5 billion and employs more than 12,000 people.
Some of the companies include Nimr, a maker of armoured vehicles, Caracal, which manufactures guns and ammunitions company, Lahab
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20synchronous%20electric%20motors%20%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E646hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E830Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETwo-speed%20auto%20(rear%20axle)%3B%20single-speed%20auto%20(front)%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh552%2C311%3B%20Dh660%2C408%20(as%20tested)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Profile of Foodics
Founders: Ahmad AlZaini and Mosab AlOthmani
Based: Riyadh
Sector: Software
Employees: 150
Amount raised: $8m through seed and Series A - Series B raise ongoing
Funders: Raed Advanced Investment Co, Al-Riyadh Al Walid Investment Co, 500 Falcons, SWM Investment, AlShoaibah SPV, Faith Capital, Technology Investments Co, Savour Holding, Future Resources, Derayah Custody Co.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The cost of Covid testing around the world
Egypt
Dh514 for citizens; Dh865 for tourists
Information can be found through VFS Global.
Jordan
Dh212
Centres include the Speciality Hospital, which now offers drive-through testing.
Cambodia
Dh478
Travel tests are managed by the Ministry of Health and National Institute of Public Health.
Zanzibar
AED 295
Zanzibar Public Health Emergency Operations Centre, located within the Lumumba Secondary School compound.
Abu Dhabi
Dh85
Abu Dhabi’s Seha has test centres throughout the UAE.
UK
From Dh400
Heathrow Airport now offers drive through and clinic-based testing, starting from Dh400 and up to Dh500 for the PCR test.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE%20JERSEYS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERed%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EGeneral%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Fatima%20bint%20Mubarak%20Ladies%20Academy%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20leader%20of%20the%20General%20Classification.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGreen%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EPoints%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Bike%20Abu%20Dhabi%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20fastest%20sprinter.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWhite%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EYoung%20Rider%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Abu%20Dhabi%20360%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20best%20young%20rider%20(U25).%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBlack%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EIntermediate%20Sprint%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Experience%20Abu%20Dhabi%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20rider%20who%20has%20gained%20most%20Intermediate%20sprint%20points.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20101hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20135Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Six-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh79%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
