After confounding expectations this year, the US economy is poised to play a central role in American politics in 2024 even as the battle to tame inflation appears to be won.
Economic growth has exceeded projections, inflation has significantly moderated, job gains are strong while unemployment is at a near-historic low, and consumer spending is still healthy.
Compare this to the UK and Europe, where recession fears persist, or to economic rival China, which is staring at deflation.
Indeed, the US economy was resilient this year.
And it will play a defining role in 2024, with momentous implications for borrowers, markets, the global economy – and the US presidential election.
Sticking the soft landing
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is on the verge of accomplishing something exceptionally rare: achieving a soft landing.
Fears of a recession dominated the earlier part of the year, but those have since given way to growing optimism that the Fed can achieve the much-fabled scenario of bringing inflation down without a steep downturn.
“My baseline is that we'll achieve a soft landing,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNBC before the Fed's December 12-13 policy meeting.
The Fed's preferred inflation metric has climbed down significantly since last year to its current 2.9 per cent level, and the central bank expects this to drop further.
Part of what has made the Fed's tightening cycle remarkable is that much of it occurred without widespread job losses. The unemployment rate still sits below 4 per cent, and employers are still adding a healthy number of jobs.
“Everything indicates that inflation has gone down and that the Fed has accomplished its task of lowering inflation,” said Brenda Samaniego de la Parra, assistant professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz's Economics Department.
With interest rates at their peak, they are expected to be a further burden for consumers next year. Borrowing costs will hurt consumers even more with pandemic-era savings used up. Economic growth will slow – although still be healthy – and consumer spending will dip.
Meanwhile, the labour market is expected to cool and wage growth to fall closer in line to inflation. All of this points to the probability of a soft landing.
“Everything seems fairly sustainable right now, in terms of the likelihood of a soft landing,” Ms de la Parra said.
A surprise twist?
Those who expect everything to neatly fall into place for the US economy next year are likely to be disappointed.
If this year has proven anything, it is how unpredictable the economy can be. When placed against the backdrop of geopolitics, it only complicates things further.
Forecasters largely believed the US was heading for a recession this year. That did not happen – in fact, the economy showed remarkable strength.
And the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank sparked fears of a new global financial crisis that roiled markets and caused the Fed to slightly alter course in its tightening cycle.
The outbreak of war in Gaza also brought fears that it could have ripple effects across the global economy, although so far it is proving less consequential to inflation than the war in Ukraine did.
There is also the possibility that the Fed will keep rates too high for too long, which could create a steep economic downturn. That alongside the simultaneous threat of not raising them high enough creates what officials call a “two-sided risk”.
“I think I think it's fair to say there is a lot of uncertainty about going forward. We've seen the economy move in surprising directions,” Jerome Powell told reporters during a news conference this month.
This uncertainty will be felt as soon as January, when the federal government faces a potential shutdown.
Sour on the economy, voters head to polls
Expect the economy to be a determining factor in the 2024 US presidential election.
For all the progress made in lowering inflation this year, there remains a disconnect as voters believe their financials are worse off than before President Joe Biden assumed office.
With a majority of Americans disapproving of Mr Biden's handling of the economy, expect the incumbent to tour across the US touting his “Bidenomics” agenda and continue to go after junk fees such as exorbitant hotel surcharges.
And with voters believing economy-related issues to be the biggest problem facing the US today, Mr Biden has a tall task ahead of him.
Expect former president Donald Trump – the Republican Party's likely candidate – to hammer Mr Biden on the economy that he would say has left Americans behind.
On November 5, voters will vote with their wallets on whom they can best trust to safeguard their financial futures. And while markets will rejoice at Mr Trump's promised tax cuts should he return to power, the global economy must brace for a return to his isolationist agenda.
America's foes and allies will be holding their breath.
TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%208
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041mm%2C%20352%20x%20430%3B%2045mm%2C%20396%20x%20484%3B%20Retina%20LTPO%20OLED%2C%20up%20to%201000%20nits%2C%20always-on%3B%20Ion-X%20glass%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20S8%2C%20W3%20wireless%2C%20U1%20ultra-wideband%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2032GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20watchOS%209%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EHealth%20metrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203rd-gen%20heart%20rate%20sensor%2C%20temperature%20sensing%2C%20ECG%2C%20blood%20oxygen%2C%20workouts%2C%20fall%2Fcrash%20detection%3B%20emergency%20SOS%2C%20international%20emergency%20calling%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GPS%2FGPS%20%2B%20cellular%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20LTE%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP6X%2C%20water%20resistant%20up%20to%2050m%2C%20dust%20resistant%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20308mAh%20Li-ion%2C%20up%20to%2018h%2C%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20eSIM%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinishes%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Aluminium%20%E2%80%93%20midnight%2C%20Product%20Red%2C%20silver%2C%20starlight%3B%20stainless%20steel%20%E2%80%93%20gold%2C%20graphite%2C%20silver%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Watch%20Series%208%2C%20magnetic-to-USB-C%20charging%20cable%2C%20band%2Floop%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Starts%20at%20Dh1%2C599%20(41mm)%20%2F%20Dh1%2C999%20(45mm)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
RESULT
Arsenal 1 Chelsea 2
Arsenal: Aubameyang (13')
Chelsea: Jorginho (83'), Abraham (87')
Results
1. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) 1hr 32mins 03.897sec
2. Max Verstappen (Red Bull-Honda) at 0.745s
3. Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes) 37.383s
4. Lando Norris (McLaren) 46.466s
5.Sergio Perez (Red Bull-Honda) 52.047s
6. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) 59.090s
7. Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren) 1:06.004
8. Carlos Sainz Jr (Ferrari) 1:07.100
9. Yuki Tsunoda (AlphaTauri-Honda) 1:25.692
10. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin-Mercedes) 1:26.713,
TWISTERS
Director: Lee Isaac Chung
Starring: Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos
Rating: 2.5/5
Terminator: Dark Fate
Director: Tim Miller
Starring: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Hamilton, Mackenzie Davis
Rating: 3/5
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Everybody%20Loves%20Touda
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nabil%20Ayouch%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nisrin%20Erradi%2C%20Joud%20Chamihy%2C%20Jalila%20Talemsi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Racecard
5.25pm: Etihad Museum – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,200m
6pm: Al Shindaga Museum – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (Dirt) 1,200m
6.35pm: Poet Al Oqaili – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
7.10pm: Majlis Ghurfat Al Sheif – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,600m
7.45pm: Hatta – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m
8.20pm: Al Fahidi – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m
8.55pm: Zabeel Trophy – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (T) 1,600m
9.30pm: Coins Museum – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
10.05pm: Al Quoz Creative – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HyveGeo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abdulaziz%20bin%20Redha%2C%20Dr%20Samsurin%20Welch%2C%20Eva%20Morales%20and%20Dr%20Harjit%20Singh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECambridge%20and%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESustainability%20%26amp%3B%20Environment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24200%2C000%20plus%20undisclosed%20grant%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVenture%20capital%20and%20government%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
UK%20record%20temperature
%3Cp%3E38.7C%20(101.7F)%20set%20in%20Cambridge%20in%202019%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMaly%20Tech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mo%20Ibrahim%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%20International%20Financial%20Centre%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.6%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2015%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%2C%20planning%20first%20seed%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20GCC-based%20angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Match info
Liverpool 4
Salah (19'), Mane (45 2', 53'), Sturridge (87')
West Ham United 0
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Wenger's Arsenal reign in numbers
1,228 - games at the helm, ahead of Sunday's Premier League fixture against West Ham United.
704 - wins to date as Arsenal manager.
3 - Premier League title wins, the last during an unbeaten Invincibles campaign of 2003/04.
1,549 - goals scored in Premier League matches by Wenger's teams.
10 - major trophies won.
473 - Premier League victories.
7 - FA Cup triumphs, with three of those having come the last four seasons.
151 - Premier League losses.
21 - full seasons in charge.
49 - games unbeaten in the Premier League from May 2003 to October 2004.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
LOVE%20AGAIN
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Jim%20Strouse%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Priyanka%20Chopra%20Jonas%2C%20Sam%20Heughan%2C%20Celine%20Dion%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
Barbie
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Greta%20Gerwig%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Margot%20Robbie%2C%20Ryan%20Gosling%2C%20Will%20Ferrell%2C%20America%20Ferrera%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
FULL%20FIGHT%20CARD
%3Cp%3EFeatherweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Abdullah%20Al%20Qahtani%20v%20Taha%20Bendaoud%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Ali%20Taleb%20v%20Nawras%20Abzakh%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Xavier%20Alaoui%20v%20Rachid%20El%20Hazoume%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Islam%20Reda%20v%20Adam%20Meskini%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Tariq%20Ismail%20v%20Jalal%20Al%20Daaja%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Elias%20Boudegzdame%20v%20Hassan%20Mandour%0D%3Cbr%3EAmateur%20Female%20Atomweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Hattan%20Al%20Saif%20v%20Nada%20Faheem%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Maraoune%20Bellagouit%20v%20Motaz%20Askar%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Ahmed%20Tarek%20v%20Abdelrahman%20Alhyasat%0D%3Cbr%3EShowcase%20Featherweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Mido%20Mohamed%20v%20Yazeed%20Hasanain%0D%3Cbr%3EShowcase%20Flyweight%20Bout%3A%0D%20Malik%20Basahel%20v%20Harsh%20Pandya%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food