Voters in Ohio during a 2022 local election. Getty Images / AFP
Voters in Ohio during a 2022 local election. Getty Images / AFP
Voters in Ohio during a 2022 local election. Getty Images / AFP
Voters in Ohio during a 2022 local election. Getty Images / AFP

What will happen in the 2024 US presidential election?


Thomas Watkins
  • English
  • Arabic

The 2024 presidential election promises to be as consequential as any other, with everything from the economy, the future of Ukraine, the US stance on climate change and America's role in the Middle East ultimately on the ballot.

Beyond these far-reaching issues, some observers also see another crucial issue at stake: the future of American democracy itself.

And whatever happens on November 5, next year is shaping up to be a particularly odd election season, even by the wacky standards of US politics.

Donald Trump, the current front-runner to become the Republican nominee, faces dozens of state and federal felony charges for allegedly mishandling state secrets, trying to overturn the 2020 election results and a host of other charges that he denies.

But this alleged misconduct only appears to have galvanised his supporters. He is polling neck and neck with President Joe Biden who, barring an unforeseen event that would force him to exit the race, will be running as the Democratic candidate for a second term in the White House.

Here is a preview of 2024's election season:

The candidates

The two main US political parties will dominate the elections, as is always the case, but Green or independent candidates could siphon votes in key states and affect results.

Mr Biden announced in April he is seeking a second term and no serious challenger from the Democratic Party has emerged, despite concerns about his viability as a candidate.

The Republican field is more competitive. Mr Trump holds a commanding lead over his challengers, but former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is making inroads, including in New Hampshire, home to the first primary race of 2024.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was once seen as the next Republican leader, but his disastrous campaign has been punctuated with unforced errors including a perception that he wears high heels inside his cowboy boots to appear taller.

Mr Biden, 81, is the oldest president in US history and frequent stumbles have led critics to say he is declining. But at 77, Mr Trump is no youngster and he has made several verbal gaffes at rallies.

Few Americans are excited about a 2020 rematch between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. AP
Few Americans are excited about a 2020 rematch between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. AP

The primaries

In US politics, presidential hopefuls must win the backing of their political party through a series of state primary elections and more informal caucuses.

The first of these is on January 15 in Iowa, where Republicans will hold caucus meetings to decide who should represent the party. Democrats are caucusing by mail in Iowa and the results won't be released until March.

Iowa holds outsize influence because it is the first caucus location in any election cycle, meaning politicians spend big bucks there. The predominantly white Midwestern state is not seen as a true litmus test however.

New Hampshire voters will select their candidate on January 24. The pace picks up ahead of Super Tuesday on March 5 when almost a third of all available delegates will decide who they want to run.

What do the polls say?

Opinion polls consistently tie Mr Biden and Mr Trump, or else giving the former president the lead.

But US polls are not always reliable, particularly in capturing the intent of younger voters.

Mr Trump has done little to make himself more appealing to the general electorate, and he lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020, while his party underperformed in the 2022 midterms.

He also faces federal and state prosecutions for his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election and for his handling of state secrets, some of which he allegedly kept in a bathroom at his Florida mansion.

How those charges play out is a big unknown for 2024. And Mr Trump has already been barred from the ballot in Colorado under a Civil War-era insurrection clause, though that ruling will probably be overturned by the US Supreme Court.

What are the main issues?

“It's the economy, stupid,” was a phrase coined by Bill Clinton adviser James Carville during Mr Clinton's run for the White House in 1992. Ronald Reagan asked a similar question in 1980 when he challenged Jimmy Carter, asking voters if they thought they were “better off” than they had been four years earlier.

In 2024, too, the economy will be a defining issue for US voters.

Since Mr Biden came into office in 2021, the US economy saw rapid inflation and soaring food and petrol prices. But wages have also grown and inflation is under control, thanks to aggressive rate increases by the Federal Reserve that have also led to mortgage and loan rates hitting 8 per cent.

Financial markets are touching record highs and job growth is better under Mr Biden than under Mr Trump. The question is whether voters will feel good about the economy on Election Day.

Other domestic issues include immigration across the southern US border, abortion and culture war fights.

The Israel-Gaza war is also emerging as a key issue.

Most Americans disapprove of how the Biden administration has handled the conflict and many Arab Americans have vowed not to vote for Mr Biden. But a Trump administration would be even more hawkish for Israel and the former president famously issued a ban on travellers from Muslim countries.

Ukraine's future is also on the line. Mr Biden has vowed to support Kyiv for “as long as it takes”, whereas Mr Trump has repeatedly attacked the war effort and the Nato alliance.

On energy, Republicans have pledged to expand oil and gas production in the US, already the world's second-biggest emitter of carbon dioxide after China. If Mr Trump is elected, he will probably look to reduce America's commitments to reduce greenhouse gases.

Democracy in the US

Mr Trump, who never conceded his 2020 loss to Mr Biden and who allegedly conspired to overturn the election results, has said he will rule like a dictator during the first day of a second term.

Mr Biden has portrayed his rival as an existential threat to US democracy and cited that as one reason he is running again.

Donald Trump’s legal woes – in pictures

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

Reputation

Taylor Swift

(Big Machine Records)

How to vote

Canadians living in the UAE can register to vote online and be added to the International Register of Electors.

They'll then be sent a special ballot voting kit by mail either to their address, the Consulate General of Canada to the UAE in Dubai or The Embassy of Canada in Abu Dhabi

Registered voters mark the ballot with their choice and must send it back by 6pm Eastern time on October 21 (2am next Friday) 

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The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

Pharaoh's curse

British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
While you're here
What the law says

Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.

“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.

“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”

If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.

While you're here
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Price: From Dh801,800
The specs

Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors

Power: Combined output 920hp

Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic

Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km

On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025

Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000

Updated: December 21, 2023, 3:00 AM`