Has the international response to the Sudan crisis been too little, too late?

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Two weeks ago, western powers were focused on helping Sudan transition to a civilian-led government that had been promised since the 2019 removal of long-time president Omar Al Bashir.

But now, countries are scrambling to evacuate their citizens and avert an all-out civil war that could undermine the stability of the wider region.

Critics say the international community was too slow to recognise the risks in Sudan, where fighting erupted on April 15 as the country's two main military groups began to jockey for power.

“The US has woken up to the high stakes in Sudan belatedly,” said Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University, whose research focuses on Sudan and the Horn of Africa.

Mr de Waal said the US has only recently given the situation the attention it deserves after neglecting Sudan under a "low-wattage" approach to diplomacy and politics.

The country file was handled by the Africa Bureau at the State Department, "whose approach has been half-hearted at best", he said.

The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces led by Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary organisation headed by his former deputy Gen Mohamed Dagalo, has resulted in the deaths of more than 450 people, with thousands more injured.

Despite a US-Saudi Arabia-brokered ceasefire, the sound of gunfire continues to ring out in the streets of Khartoum and any truce seems aimed at allowing people to flee Sudan rather than ending the conflict itself.

The conflict hinges on the proposed integration of the RSF into the regular army.

“The army seems to be hell-bent on disbanding the RSF by force and seemingly forcing the RSF to fight an existential war," explained Shewit Woldemichael, a senior analyst on Sudan for the International Crisis Group.

Street battles have been fought throughout Khartoum and the fighting has begun to spread to other parts of the country, including the already restive Darfur region.

“The airport, the presidential palace, the headquarters of both the army and RSF, a number of different logistic bases, the bridges connecting Khartoum have all seen a lot of fighting,” Ms Woldemichael said.

Many countries, including the US, UK and France, have pulled out their diplomatic staff, a move that further complicates peace efforts.

“At a moment where there is a tremendous fire that needs all of the water and expertise and capacity to respond to this humanitarian catastrophe that's developing, people are running away from it,” Susan Stigant, director of Africa Programmes at the United States Institute for Peace, told The National.

The US has said it hopes to reopen its embassy in Sudan soon.

But neither faction seems ready to parley, UN envoy to Sudan Volker Perthes told a Security Council meeting in New York City on Tuesday.

“There is yet no unequivocal sign that either is ready to seriously negotiate,” Mr Perthes said.

Daniel Forti, a senior UN analyst at Crisis Group, said now that most countries have evacuated their personnel, they can engage fully in international diplomatic efforts.

“The one downside, however, is that these governments no longer have personnel on the ground who could otherwise provide firsthand accounts of what's happening and serve as direct interlocutors with the parties," he said.

Washington plays a crucial role in Sudan, noted Timothy Carney, who served as US ambassador to Sudan from 1995 to 1997.

“The US role, first of all, is as a convener”, bringing various factions to the negotiating table, Mr Carney told The National.

“Second, on the economic side, to help alleviate Sudan's massive debt, and third, to provide humanitarian assistance, of which the US has provided hundreds of millions of dollars already for some time, and finally the US will be providing development assistance for the Sudanese economy including its agriculture.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has had several conversations with both Gen Burhan and Gen Dagalo, according to the State Department.