With Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week indicating a possible ground operation into Syria, attention has turned to Russia and the US to restrain Ankara from such an escalation.
Mr Erdogan, speaking after he returned from the World Cup opening in Qatar on Sunday, made it clear that Turkey’s response to the November 13 bombing in Istanbul and rocket attacks on its territory, will not be limited to aerial bombardment, which the Turkish military carried out in Northern Syria at the weekend.
"This is not limited to just an air operation," he said, adding that he would be consulting with his military and national security advisers on further steps.
“If someone disturbs our country and lands, we will make them pay the price."
While this is not the first time this year Mr Erdogan has threatened a ground invasion into Syria, experts say a shift in circumstances and an election campaign in Turkey could tip the balance in favour of an incursion for the first time since 2019.
Aaron Stein, a Turkey policy expert and author, said it would be prudent to take the Turkish president at his word.
“I tend to just listen to Erdogan and not make this too complicated. So yes, a ground invasion is possible,” Mr Stein told The National.
Key to Turkey’s thinking would be Russia’s reaction, he said.
Moscow controls the airspace and has observers in that region of Syria, but has been preoccupied with its own invasion of Ukraine.
“The first evidence we have is that Turkish jets did not cross into Syria [over the weekend], which would suggest Russia has not signed off on any invasion,” said Mr Stein, author of The US War Against ISIS.
“Turkey can always choose to ignore Russia, but they have not done so thus far.”
Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International and a Syria scholar, saw some ambiguity in Mr Erdogan’s remarks.
“Erdogan has been talking about a ground operation to seize terrain in northern Syria since May," Mr Lund said.
"Over the summer, his plan seemed to get stuck in negotiations with Russia.
"Now when the air strikes came, that seemed almost de-escalatory in the sense that Ankara had not opted to exploit the Istanbul bombing to justify a full-scale offensive.
“But now with Erdogan signalling that ground troops might be used, all bets are off."
Increasing the volatility of the situation were rocket attacks against southern Turkey on Monday in response to the Turkish bombardment.
Mr Lund, author of two books on Syria, said Russia’s position may end up deciding the fate of such invasion.
He said the key questions were: “Will Moscow oppose an attack, or what would it demand in return for facilitating one? Will the Russians yield if Erdogan goes ahead anyway?”
The personal rapport between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Mr Erdogan will also play a role, Mr Lund said.
“They do not see eye to eye on lots of things, Syria among them, but they do have a solid, well-tested relationship and have successfully negotiated difficult deals before,” Mr Lund said.
As for a US role, Mr Stein and Mr Lund expressed opposing views on its influence and willingness to interfere.
“The US isn’t really engaged [in northern Syria] and won’t be," said Mr Stein. "Ankara can basically do what it wants. The US has moved on."
At the Manama Dialogue on Saturday, White House Co-ordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk repeated the US position "to make sure that nothing is done to further destabilise that very difficult situation in north-east Syria".
Mr McGurk said Washington wanted “the border with Turkey is secure".
But Mr Lund saw an essential behind-the-scenes role for the US administration of President Joe Biden, “both in and of itself and as a potential reinforcement of a Russian ‘nyet'" [no].
Last summer, Mr Lund said Washington and Moscow “flashed a red light and that ended up dissuading Erdogan” from a ground invasion.
But with US-Turkey relations strained over arms and trade deals with Moscow and Congressional sanctions against Ankara, Mr Lund said Mr Erdogan, who is facing elections in June, “would not mind brushing US objections aside, which could play well into his re-election campaign".
But the aerial attacks in Syria are already infuriating members of Congress.
Congressman Frank Pallone tweeted on Sunday that Ankara’s bombardment “is yet another reason why I am working to block the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey".
The US state Department repeated its position, urging Ankara to “halt offensive operations in north-east Syria”, a US official told The National.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits Saudi Arabia - in pictures
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA
Opening Rugby Championship fixtures: Games can be watched on OSN Sports
Saturday: Australia v New Zealand, Sydney, 1pm (UAE)
Sunday: South Africa v Argentina, Port Elizabeth, 11pm (UAE)
Ad Astra
Director: James Gray
Stars: Brad Pitt, Tommy Lee Jones
Five out of five stars
%E2%80%98FSO%20Safer%E2%80%99%20-%20a%20ticking%20bomb
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What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
500 People from Gaza enter France
115 Special programme for artists
25 Evacuation of injured and sick
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Monster Hunter: World
Capcom
PlayStation 4, Xbox One
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
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THE SPECS
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
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Power: 710bhp
Torque: 770Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 2.9 seconds
Top Speed: 340km/h
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On sale: now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
