Barbara Leaf, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, speaks to reporters at a media roundtable in Kuwait City on October 19, 2022. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
Barbara Leaf, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, speaks to reporters at a media roundtable in Kuwait City on October 19, 2022. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
Barbara Leaf, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, speaks to reporters at a media roundtable in Kuwait City on October 19, 2022. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
Barbara Leaf, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, speaks to reporters at a media roundtable in Kuwait City on October 19, 2022. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)

World

US

Senior US official says Iran protests ‘most serious’ since 1979

Barbara Leaf also says Lebanon could face a worst-case scenario of disintegration if it fails to address political crisis

Joyce Karam
Joyce Karam
Washington

November 04, 2022

  • English
  • Arabic

The protests in Iran are the most serious display of unrest in the country since the current regime came to power in 1979, a senior US official said on Friday.

US Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Barbara Leaf said the demonstrations that began in mid-September present a serious challenge to the regime.

“It's certainly by any judgment the most serious unrest of an organic nature that the regime has seen since the revolution,” Ms Leaf said during an event at the Woodrow Wilson Centre in Washington.

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Protests erupted across Iran following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who died in police custody. In confronting the protests, Tehran has resorted to violence, intimidation and mass arrests but has not been able to silence dissent.

She assessed that “the regime has a very difficult time understanding or contending with [the protests]".

Human rights organisations have estimated that more than 200 protesters have been killed in the crackdown by security forces and hundreds have been detained.

Iranians protest in Tehran after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September. AP Photo
Iranians protest in Tehran after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the morality police in September. AP Photo
Protests have intensified despite a vicious government crackdown that has left as many as 200 people dead, although estimates of the toll by rights groups vary. AP Photo
Protests have intensified despite a vicious government crackdown that has left as many as 200 people dead, although estimates of the toll by rights groups vary. AP Photo
At least eight members of the security forces have also been killed or wounded during the unrest and there are signs that violent resistance could be intensifying. AP Photo
At least eight members of the security forces have also been killed or wounded during the unrest and there are signs that violent resistance could be intensifying. AP Photo
A fire burns at the office of the governor of Mahabad, in the West Azerbaijan province of Iran. AFP
A fire burns at the office of the governor of Mahabad, in the West Azerbaijan province of Iran. AFP
Protesters gather in the a courtyard of Chitgar complex in western Tehran. AFP
Protesters gather in the a courtyard of Chitgar complex in western Tehran. AFP
Iranian protesters continue to defy a deadly crackdown by security forces. AFP
Iranian protesters continue to defy a deadly crackdown by security forces. AFP
A woman cuts her hair at the grave site of Nika Shahkarami in the city of Khorramabad, during a reported memorial held to mark 40 days since the death of the 16-year-old. AFP
A woman cuts her hair at the grave site of Nika Shahkarami in the city of Khorramabad, during a reported memorial held to mark 40 days since the death of the 16-year-old. AFP
A woman not wearing a headscarf stands on top of a vehicle as thousands make their way towards Saqez, Mahsa Amini's home town, to mark 40 days since her death in police custody. AFP
A woman not wearing a headscarf stands on top of a vehicle as thousands make their way towards Saqez, Mahsa Amini's home town, to mark 40 days since her death in police custody. AFP
Iranian riot police prepare to confront protesters the capital, Tehran. AFP
Iranian riot police prepare to confront protesters the capital, Tehran. AFP
Iranian protesters surge forward amid clashes with riot police in Tehran. AFP
Iranian protesters surge forward amid clashes with riot police in Tehran. AFP
A crowd blocks an intersection during a protest to mark 40 days since Amini's death in custody. AP Photo
A crowd blocks an intersection during a protest to mark 40 days since Amini's death in custody. AP Photo
Iranian police arrive to disperse a protest in Tehran. AP Photo
Iranian police arrive to disperse a protest in Tehran. AP Photo
Protesters chant at a vigil for Amini at the Khajeh Nasir Toosi University of Technology in Tehran. Reuters
Protesters chant at a vigil for Amini at the Khajeh Nasir Toosi University of Technology in Tehran. Reuters
Students at Sharif University of Technology attend a protest. AP Photo
Students at Sharif University of Technology attend a protest. AP Photo
Police outside Sharif University during a student protest. AP Photo
Police outside Sharif University during a student protest. AP Photo
Students at the university protest over the death of Amini, who was in 'morality police' custody for allegedly breaking strict rules on head coverings for women. AP Photo
Students at the university protest over the death of Amini, who was in 'morality police' custody for allegedly breaking strict rules on head coverings for women. AP Photo
The students' banner says: 'No to mandatory hijab'. AP Photo
The students' banner says: 'No to mandatory hijab'. AP Photo

But Ms Leaf said that the worst may still be to come.

“The Iranian regime has not turned on the worst of its security forces yet on the public — it can still do worse,” she said.

The US official reiterated that Washington’s attention is solely focused on the protests and not on reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

“Our focus is on calling out and supporting [and] lifting up the voices of Iranian women and others who support them in their quest,” she said.

Talks over the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, signed between Iran and world powers in 2015 to place limits on Tehran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, have stalled and western officials are not optimistic over the deal's future.

Asked about Lebanon and the power vacuum that has developed following the resignation of former president Michel Aoun, Ms Leaf said the administration of US President Joe Biden has prepared for a set of chaotic scenarios that could unfold.

“I can see a scenario where there is disintegration, that [would be] the worst, where there's just an unravelling,” she said.

Stopgap measures such as payments the US has made to the country's armed forces may not be enough in such an event.

“They lose control of things. There's mass migrations … and I somehow imagine a lot of the same parliamentarians packing their bags and going off to places in Europe or elsewhere where they have property,” she said.

But the US official framed that as the worst-case scenario and that there are many in between that could occur before the parliament agrees on a new president.

“Things will have to get worse before the public pressure mounts in such a way that they feel that we are putting pressure directly on political leaders to do their work,” she said.

Ms Leaf, who recently completed a trip to the Gulf, expected a bigger assisting role for Saudi Arabia in Lebanon to mitigate the crisis.

“At different intervals, the Saudis stepped back but I think they will step back in,” she said.

On the maritime deal between Lebanon and Israel, Ms Leaf did not expect Israel's new prime minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu to withdraw from it, which he has threatened to do in the past.

“Hopefully”, she said, the new Israeli leader will not scupper the historic deal that defined the maritime border between the two countries, which are technically at war.

Israel elections 2022 — in pictures

Former Israeli prime minister and leader of the Likud party Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara greet supporters in Jerusalem as Israelis went to the polls on Tuesday. EPA
Former Israeli prime minister and leader of the Likud party Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara greet supporters in Jerusalem as Israelis went to the polls on Tuesday. EPA
Mr Netanyahu greets supporters after the end of voting for the national elections. AFP
Mr Netanyahu greets supporters after the end of voting for the national elections. AFP
Prime Minister Yair Lapid addresses supporters at his campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv. EPA
Prime Minister Yair Lapid addresses supporters at his campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv. EPA
The prime minister's wife Lihi Lapid, centre, cheers her husband. AFP
The prime minister's wife Lihi Lapid, centre, cheers her husband. AFP
The leader of the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) far-right party Itamar Ben Gvir at his party's campaign headquarters in Jerusalem. AFP
The leader of the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) far-right party Itamar Ben Gvir at his party's campaign headquarters in Jerusalem. AFP
Otzma Yehudit party members in upbeat mood. AFP
Otzma Yehudit party members in upbeat mood. AFP
A Likud party supporter responds to favourable exit polls. Getty
A Likud party supporter responds to favourable exit polls. Getty
Supporters of Mr Netanyahu react as early exit polls suggest a comeback for the former leader. EPA
Supporters of Mr Netanyahu react as early exit polls suggest a comeback for the former leader. EPA
An Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israeli selects his ballot paper on the day of Israel's general election at a polling station in Jerusalem. Reuters
An Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israeli selects his ballot paper on the day of Israel's general election at a polling station in Jerusalem. Reuters
Mr Netanyahu and his wife Sara cast their ballot at a polling station in Jerusalem in the country's fifth election in less than four years. AFP
Mr Netanyahu and his wife Sara cast their ballot at a polling station in Jerusalem in the country's fifth election in less than four years. AFP
A man kisses his dog after casting his ballot in Tel Aviv during the Israeli elections. AP
A man kisses his dog after casting his ballot in Tel Aviv during the Israeli elections. AP
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid smiles as he casts his vote at a polling station in Israel's coastal city of Tel Aviv. Mr Lapid urged the electorate to cast their ballot after voting in an election that might lead to veteran leader Benjamin Netanyahu making a comeback alongside far-right allies. Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid smiles as he casts his vote at a polling station in Israel's coastal city of Tel Aviv. Mr Lapid urged the electorate to cast their ballot after voting in an election that might lead to veteran leader Benjamin Netanyahu making a comeback alongside far-right allies. Reuters
Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz, right, head of the new centre-right National Unity Party, and his wife Revital Gantz vote at a polling station in the city of Rosh Haayin in central Israel. AFP
Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz, right, head of the new centre-right National Unity Party, and his wife Revital Gantz vote at a polling station in the city of Rosh Haayin in central Israel. AFP
Ultra-Orthodox Jews watch their Rabbi Israel Hager vote during Israeli elections in Bnei Brak. AP
Ultra-Orthodox Jews watch their Rabbi Israel Hager vote during Israeli elections in Bnei Brak. AP
An Ultra-Orthodox Jewish man votes in Israel's parliamentary election at a polling station in Bnei Brak. AP
An Ultra-Orthodox Jewish man votes in Israel's parliamentary election at a polling station in Bnei Brak. AP
An Israeli man walks with a little girl towards the ballot box to cast his vote. AP
An Israeli man walks with a little girl towards the ballot box to cast his vote. AP
A little girl helps her mother cast her ballot on the day of Israel's general election at a polling station in Taibe, northern Israel. Reuters
A little girl helps her mother cast her ballot on the day of Israel's general election at a polling station in Taibe, northern Israel. Reuters
Israelis queue to cast their ballots on the day of Israel's general election at a polling station in Tel Aviv. Reuters
Israelis queue to cast their ballots on the day of Israel's general election at a polling station in Tel Aviv. Reuters
Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis wait to cast their ballots at a polling station in Jerusalem. Reuters
Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis wait to cast their ballots at a polling station in Jerusalem. Reuters
An Israeli man casts his ballot at a drive-through polling station for people quarantined as a result of Covid-19 in Jerusalem. Reuters
An Israeli man casts his ballot at a drive-through polling station for people quarantined as a result of Covid-19 in Jerusalem. Reuters
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