US President Joe Biden may not bring home any term-defining wins from his historic Middle East tour, but the visit may be enough to assure regional leaders he still values America's partners in the Gulf.
Over four days, the US leader met counterparts from more than a dozen countries as he travelled to Israel, the occupied West Bank and Saudi Arabia. He was looking to shore up support, patch strained ties and tout the benefits of further integrating Israel with Arab states.
At Saturday's Jeddah Security and Development Summit, which brought together leaders of the GCC as well as Jordan, Egypt and Iraq, Mr Biden said he didn't always get things right but was “committed” to being an “engaged partner in the Middle East.”
The president's mere presence in Saudi Arabia, a country he once said he would make a “pariah” following the murder of Saudi dissident and US resident Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, has drawn rebuke in the US ― even though he said his stance was aimed at "reorienting" America's relationship with the kingdom, not "rupturing" it.
His fist bump with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, upon arriving at Al Salam Palace here, was on the front page of every major US newspaper on Saturday.
“I think it’s a big win for the Saudis, no question,” said Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University. “A big win for the crown prince.”
The fact that Biden chose to come to Jeddah “signals that the president and the United States are going to be much more present, much more active in the Middle East,” Professor Haykel told The National.
The president is currently lagging in the polls, with his approval rating in the low 30s.
But this trip is unlikely to win him any favour with voters, although he may have improved the US relationship and standing in the region and put Washington on a stronger footing going forward.
“I do think he should have gone,” said Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, a UK-based think tank that focuses on international affairs. “I do believe that bringing the Gulf on-side is important.”
While in the Middle East, the president helped to convince Saudi Arabia to open its airspace to all civilian flights, meaning Israeli planes will be able to fly over the kingdom. In return, the US agreed to remove its long-established peacekeeping force from a remote Red Sea island, allowing Saudi Arabia to take full control of the coveted Tiran Island, which it seeks to develop as a tourist hub.
While not earth-shattering achievements, the president hopes they are incremental steps to bringing Saudi Arabia and Israel closer together and help build a more unified front against Iran.
“I think they're very important, practical and symbolic steps that will over time, when Saudi Arabia is ready, set the countries for normalisation,” Ms Vakil told The National. “But the kingdom isn't going to normalise without having its own sort of package of demands and incentives.”
After the Abraham Accords gave rise to the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco establishing ties with Israel, the kingdom reiterated that it was still committed to the 2000 Arab Initiative that sets a two-state peace agreement for Palestinians, with their capital in occupied East Jerusalem, as a condition for relations with Israel.
The US president also made it clear that he wanted the region to look West before it looks East.
“We will not walk away and leave a vacuum filled by China, Russia or wherever,” he said to the GCC+3 leaders.
Professor Haykel believes it may be too late for such binary geopolitics.
“What we’re seeing is structural. I think the world is moving away from one that is unipolar, where the Americans are, as the French say, the hyperpower,” he said.
While that could well be the case, Mr Biden may have done enough to reset or even advance US interests in the region.
Speaking to The National, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al Jubeir said “everything is as it is supposed to be'' in terms of relations between the countries.
“But at the leadership level, because this is the first visit by President Biden as president, symbolically it's important,” he added.
Ms Vakil believes while the trip may not be a “panacea” it may “set up processes” that help lead to “greater confidence between the Biden administration and the Gulf states”.
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
No_One Ever Really Dies
N*E*R*D
(I Am Other/Columbia)
'Panga'
Directed by Ashwiny Iyer Tiwari
Starring Kangana Ranaut, Richa Chadha, Jassie Gill, Yagya Bhasin, Neena Gupta
Rating: 3.5/5
Zayed Sustainability Prize
So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
Shooting Ghosts: A U.S. Marine, a Combat Photographer, and Their Journey Back from War by Thomas J. Brennan and Finbarr O’Reilly
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Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
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Athletic Bilbao 1
Williams (14')
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now
There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:
1. Rising US interest rates
The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.
Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”
At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.
2. Stronger dollar
High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.”
3. Global trade war
Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”
4. Eurozone uncertainty
Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”
The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
The Orwell Prize for Political Writing
Twelve books were longlisted for The Orwell Prize for Political Writing. The non-fiction works cover various themes from education, gender bias, and the environment to surveillance and political power. Some of the books that made it to the non-fiction longlist include:
- Appeasing Hitler: Chamberlain, Churchill and the Road to War by Tim Bouverie
- Some Kids I Taught and What They Taught Me by Kate Clanchy
- Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men by Caroline Criado Perez
- Follow Me, Akhi: The Online World of British Muslims by Hussein Kesvani
- Guest House for Young Widows: Among the Women of ISIS by Azadeh Moaveni
The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
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