Live updates: follow the latest news on Russia-Ukraine
The US ban on Russian oil and gas imports is likely to leave more cargoes at sea with no buyers and the EU's decision to continue imports was unlikely to make much difference to to disarray in Russian oil trade, analysts say.
US President Joe Biden on Tuesday imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine and Britain said it would phase out imports through the end of 2022.
The EU did not join the ban because it is more dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies. Gas flows to Europe have so far been steady since the invasion, which Russia calls a “special military operation”, but Moscow on Monday said that sanctions on Russian oil could prompt it to close a major gas pipeline to Europe.
Existing disruption to oil trade, caused by traders steering clear of Russian supplies due to concern they may unwittingly fall foul of sanctions imposed on Russia, is likely to worsen after the US ban, traders said. Buyers will also be concerned about the kind of reputational hit that Shell took at the weekend for buying Russian oil.
Shell said earlier it would stop buying oil from Russia and cut links to the country entirely. Shell's decision came days after it faced a hail of criticism for buying Russian oil at a steep discount — a transaction that two weeks ago would have been routine — underlining how Moscow's pariah status is growing even in a market it used to dominate.
Russia exports about seven million barrels per day of crude and refined fuel — about 7 per cent of global supply.
“Redirecting trade flows takes time. It creates dislocation in the market,” said Roger Diwan, vice president of financial services at S&P Global. “The more you do have this type of rerouting and we don't know where the volumes are going, the physical world starts to get gummed up.”
The new sanctions could leave more cargoes already on the water struggling to find buyers, analysts said.
As Mr Biden announced the US ban, there were 34 cargoes of Russian oil aboard 26 ships headed to the US, most of which was fuel oil but included 3.2 million barrels of crude, said energy strategist Clay Seigle, citing Vortexa data.
One US trader said that when it comes to trading Russian oil, the situation was “getting untenable".
Goldman Sachs estimated that more than half of Russian oil exported from ports remained unsold.
“If sustained, this would represent a three million barrel per day decline in Russian crude and petroleum product seaborne exports,” it said on Tuesday.
JP Morgan estimated about 70 per cent of Russian seaborne oil was struggling to find buyers.
“Shipping disruptions in the Black Sea have brought trade deals with the country to a virtual standstill,” the bank said on Tuesday.
BCA Research analysts also said some private companies were boycotting Russian energy, but it saw less of an impact so far.
“Estimates vary but about 20 per cent of Russian oil exports could be affected so far,” BCA said and added that Russian crude could still make its way to markets such as China.
Kpler said there were signs a growing number of cargoes were going to sea unsold.
In 2021, energy was the most imported product by the EU from Russia, accounting for 62 per cent of total EU imports, or the equivalent of about $108 billion.
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
Manchester City transfers:
OUTS
Pablo Zabaleta, Bacary Sagna, Gael Clichy, Willy Caballero and Jesus Navas (all released)
INS
Ederson (Benfica) £34.7m, Bernardo Silva (Monaco) £43m
ON THEIR WAY OUT?
Joe Hart, Eliaquim Mangala, Samir Nasri, Wilfried Bony, Fabian Delph, Nolito and Kelechi Iheanacho
ON THEIR WAY IN?
Dani Alves (Juventus), Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal)
Getting there
The flights
Flydubai operates up to seven flights a week to Helsinki. Return fares to Helsinki from Dubai start from Dh1,545 in Economy and Dh7,560 in Business Class.
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Golden Crown Igloos in Levi offer stays from Dh1,215 per person per night for a superior igloo; www.leviniglut.net
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Arctic Treehouse Hotel in Rovaniemi offers stays from Dh1,379 per night based on two people sharing; www.arctictreehousehotel.com
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New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
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Centre Court (4pm UAE/12pm GMT)
Victoria Azarenka (BLR) v Heather Watson (GBR)
Rafael Nadal (ESP x4) v Karen Khachanov (RUS x30)
Andy Murray (GBR x1) v Fabio Fognini (ITA x28)
Court 1 (4pm UAE)
Steve Johnson (USA x26) v Marin Cilic (CRO x7)
Johanna Konta (GBR x6) v Maria Sakkari (GRE)
Naomi Osaka (JPN) v Venus Williams (USA x10)
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Aljaz Bedene (GBR) v Gilles Muller (LUX x16)
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UAE group fixtures (all in St Kitts)
- Saturday 15 January: UAE beat Canada by 49 runs
- Thursday 20 January: v England
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5.30pm: Wadi Sidr – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Fakhama, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
6.30pm: Wadi Shees – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mutaqadim, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 – Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Wadi Tayyibah – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Poster Paint, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar
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Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
