A key US senator who chairs the Intelligence Committee expressed doubts that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been “getting all the facts” as he weighs a potential invasion of Ukraine, which American and European leaders say could happen as soon as this week.
Democrat Mark Warner questioned Mr Putin’s analysis of the situation in remarks to reporters after National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan briefed the Senate on the current situation behind closed doors on Monday.
Mr Warner told The National that inputs from western leaders to Mr Putin have been “very limited” in the “last 12 to 18 months during Covid.”
However, the senator noted that he thinks the array of European leaders visiting Russia and Ukraine could have an impact on Mr Putin’s decision whether to invade.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz, who is in Ukraine, is scheduled to visit Moscow on Tuesday.
His visit follows a similar trip to Moscow by French President Emmanuel Macron last week.
“He’s got to get some of this information penetrating because he’s talking on a regular basis to western leaders,” Mr Warner told The National.
“My hope is that the images of Ukrainians young and old training for an insurgency, the fact that western intelligence services are pre-warning if you see a Russian false flag operation will let the world know that this is not what it appears to be,” Mr Warner said.
He raised the possibility of a long-term Ukrainian insurgency in the wake of any Russian invasion as well as a potential spillover effect that could bring Moscow into conflict with Nato by activating the Article 5 mutual self-defence clause.
“The idea of something that could be an all-out cyberattack against the physical infrastructure in Ukraine could have ramifications in Poland,” said Mr Warner. “Does that raise the challenge of Article 5 in Nato?”
Both Mr Warner and Republican Marco Rubio referred to the situation as “dangerous".
And Mr Rubio, a staunch critic of President Joe Biden, cautioned his colleagues against using the tenuous security situation against the Democratic administration for partisan political gains – a rare sentiment in today's Washington.
“This is a very serious matter that really is a pretty significant challenge of global security,” said Mr Rubio. “If ever there was a moment where we should not be seeking immediate political advantage, this is probably one of those."
The briefing comes as weeks-long negotiations between Democrats and Republicans in Congress on a Russia sanctions package continue to drag on.
The Biden administration and Democrats have pushed back against Republican requests to apply penalties before any potential Russian invasion of Ukraine as well as sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.
But the Biden administration’s projections that a Russian invasion could begin at any moment, coupled with the fact that the House of Representatives is not holding votes this week could render some of the debate over sanctions legislation a moot issue.
“The administration has the power under the law to impose every sanction they need to impose, so I wouldn’t fixate too much on that at this point,” said Mr Rubio.
