The speed and extent of the Afghan military collapse has stunned many observers including US President Joe Biden's administration, which has ordered the Pentagon to pull an about-face and temporarily deploy 3,000 troops to Kabul right as America was supposed to be ending its longest war.
But the cascading losses for Afghanistan’s security forces and a seemingly imminent Taliban march on Kabul were largely predictable and underscore the shortcomings of western counterinsurgency doctrine, experts say.
A similar rout occurred in Iraq in 2014 -- three years after the US had ended operations there -- when ISIS rampaged across the country, committing sectarian atrocities as they went.
Iraqi security forces had benefited from years of western training and equipping as well as billions of dollars in funding, yet they failed their first big battlefield test, often giving up without ever firing a shot as ISIS attacked. The US military had to return to Iraq to help vanquish the extremists.
“The collapse of the Iraqi security forces in 2014 should have been a warning to the US and Nato that it was very possible the same thing would happen in Afghanistan -- but they never internalised the lessons,” said Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies.
US-led military efforts in both Iraq and Afghanistan focused on trying to build national forces that loosely mirrored western militaries, with a centralised command structure and ground units that were often reliant on close-air support.
The Pentagon would boast of the nascent armies’ growing effectiveness while understating their reliance on western trainers, air power and cash to spur them on.
“We gave them weapons, we gave them an organisation and all the trappings of a western military, but they weren't prepared to fight like a western military," Mr Roggio said.
In its push to build mini, US-style militaries, the Pentagon gave Black Hawk helicopters to the Afghan air force and M1 Abrams tanks to Iraq, even though such gear is notoriously tough to maintain without regular servicing from US troops or contractors.
ISIS seized donated US Humvees and military gear from Iraqi security forces; now the Taliban are doing the same thing in Afghanistan.
Dan Grazier, a former Marine Corps captain who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, wrote a paper in 2020 in which he argued that providing a foreign government with security forces it cannot support independently or that do not match its security needs sets that country up for failure.
He pointed to Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan as wars in which US efforts to build local militaries fell short.
“The United States does not have a very good track record of doing this,” Mr Grazier, who is now a defence researcher at the nonpartisan Project On Government Oversight, told The National.
“We’ve already seen the Iraqi army collapse and now we are in the process of watching the Afghan army collapse, so if that isn’t evidence of why we should stay out of these things, I don’t know what is.”
Another major driver of Iraqi and Afghan militaries' failure has been the endemic corruption in both countries. On paper, Afghanistan's 300,000 troops and police vastly outnumber the Taliban's 75,000 or so fighters, but numerical advantages matter little when soldiers won't fight.
Afghanistan analysts have warned of the corrosive impacts of corruption for years. Foot soldiers would go months with no pay while commanders pocketed their salaries and that of “ghost soldiers” who didn't exist.
The central government in Kabul has been woefully ineffective at provisioning Afghan forces with food and ammunition, and has repeatedly failed to send backup to units under attack.
In recent years, young recruits were often sent to remote posts where they became sitting ducks for Taliban attacks just so a local politician could fly the Afghan flag over his fiefdom.
All of this eroded the motivation of Afghan forces to stand up to the Taliban advance.
Charles Lister, a senior fellow and director of the Syria and counter-terrorism programmes at the Middle East Institute, said the key factor in the Afghan military's collapse is the rapid withdrawal by US and Nato forces.
“The most underappreciated element here is the morale boost, the confidence that came with knowing that US and Nato forces were on the ground, they had the back of Afghan security forces," Mr Lister said.
"When that’s not there anymore, the only source of morale that Afghan forces can rely on is their central government and clearly we are seeing that that is not enough.”
Another factor to consider is the "unifying power of jihadist ideology", Mr Lister added. It "repeatedly proves itself more capable as a mobiliser when facing a corrupt, disunited government."
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was first agreed to last year by then-president Donald Trump, who signed off on a pullout by May of this year.
Mr Biden pushed the date back by only a few months and the withdrawal was on track to finish by the end of August.
So far, Mr Biden has appeared resolute in his decision to quit Afghanistan, even as political blowback grows and reports of potential Taliban war crimes proliferate.
An additional 3,000 US troops are due to arrive in Kabul at the weekend but the Pentagon and State Department have stressed they are only there temporarily to help extract stranded US diplomats, personnel and some of the tens of thousands of Afghans who worked with America over the years and now face Taliban reprisals.
How to help
Donate towards food and a flight by transferring money to this registered charity's account.
Account name: Dar Al Ber Society
Account Number: 11 530 734
IBAN: AE 9805 000 000 000 11 530 734
Bank Name: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank
To ensure that your contribution reaches these people, please send the copy of deposit/transfer receipt to: juhi.khan@daralber.ae
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
- Parasite – 4
- 1917– 3
- Ford v Ferrari – 2
- Joker – 2
- Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood – 2
- American Factory – 1
- Bombshell – 1
- Hair Love – 1
- Jojo Rabbit – 1
- Judy – 1
- Little Women – 1
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – 1
- Marriage Story – 1
- Rocketman – 1
- The Neighbors' Window – 1
- Toy Story 4 – 1
Specs
Engine: 3.0L twin-turbo V6
Gearbox: 10-speed automatic
Power: 405hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 562Nm at 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.2L/100km
Price: From Dh292,845 (Reserve); from Dh320,145 (Presidential)
On sale: Now
SERIE A FIXTURES
Saturday (All UAE kick-off times)
Lecce v SPAL (6pm)
Bologna v Genoa (9pm)
Atlanta v Roma (11.45pm)
Sunday
Udinese v Hellas Verona (3.30pm)
Juventus v Brescia (6pm)
Sampdoria v Fiorentina (6pm)
Sassuolo v Parma (6pm)
Cagliari v Napoli (9pm)
Lazio v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
Monday
AC Milan v Torino (11.45pm)
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
Overview
What: The Arab Women’s Sports Tournament is a biennial multisport event exclusively for Arab women athletes.
When: From Sunday, February 2, to Wednesday, February 12.
Where: At 13 different centres across Sharjah.
Disciplines: Athletics, archery, basketball, fencing, Karate, table tennis, shooting (rifle and pistol), show jumping and volleyball.
Participating countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar and UAE.
Dubai World Cup Carnival Card:
6.30pm: Handicap US$135,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.05pm: Handicap $135,000 (Dirt) 1,200m
7.40pm: Zabeel Turf Listed $175,000 (T) 2,000m
8.15pm: Cape Verdi Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,600m
8.50pm: Handicap $135,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap $175,000 (T) 1,600m
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Rashford 36')
Liverpool 1 (Lallana 84')
Man of the match: Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)
JERSEY INFO
Red Jersey
General Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the leader of the General Classification by time.
Green Jersey
Points Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the fastest sprinter, who has obtained the best positions in each stage and intermediate sprints.
White Jersey
Young Rider Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the best young rider born after January 1, 1995 in the overall classification by time (U25).
Black Jersey
Intermediate Sprint Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the rider who has gained the most Intermediate Sprint Points.
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch
Power: 710bhp
Torque: 770Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 2.9 seconds
Top Speed: 340km/h
Price: Dh1,000,885
On sale: now
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Born: High Wycombe, England
Favourite vehicle: One with solid axels
Favourite camping spot: Anywhere I can get to.
Favourite road trip: My first trip to Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan. The desert they have over there is different and the language made it a bit more challenging.
Favourite spot in the UAE: Al Dhafra. It’s unique, natural, inaccessible, unspoilt.
Profile of Tamatem
Date started: March 2013
Founder: Hussam Hammo
Based: Amman, Jordan
Employees: 55
Funding: $6m
Funders: Wamda Capital, Modern Electronics (part of Al Falaisah Group) and North Base Media
Martin Sabbagh profile
Job: CEO JCDecaux Middle East
In the role: Since January 2015
Lives: In the UAE
Background: M&A, investment banking
Studied: Corporate finance
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RACE CARD
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Turf) 2,200m
5.30pm: Khor Al Baghal – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
6pm: Khor Faridah – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
7pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
7.30pm: Khor Laffam – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Result:
1. Cecilie Hatteland (NOR) atop Alex - 31.46 seconds
2. Anna Gorbacheva (RUS) atop Curt 13 - 31.82 seconds
3. Georgia Tame (GBR) atop Cash Up - 32.81 seconds
4. Sheikha Latifa bint Ahmed Al Maktoum (UAE) atop Peanuts de Beaufour - 35.85 seconds
5. Miriam Schneider (GER) atop Benur du Romet - 37.53 seconds
6. Annika Sande (NOR) atop For Cash 2 - 31.42 seconds (4 penalties)
Stormy seas
Weather warnings show that Storm Eunice is soon to make landfall. The videographer and I are scrambling to return to the other side of the Channel before it does. As we race to the port of Calais, I see miles of wire fencing topped with barbed wire all around it, a silent ‘Keep Out’ sign for those who, unlike us, aren’t lucky enough to have the right to move freely and safely across borders.
We set sail on a giant ferry whose length dwarfs the dinghies migrants use by nearly a 100 times. Despite the windy rain lashing at the portholes, we arrive safely in Dover; grateful but acutely aware of the miserable conditions the people we’ve left behind are in and of the privilege of choice.
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
How to join and use Abu Dhabi’s public libraries
• There are six libraries in Abu Dhabi emirate run by the Department of Culture and Tourism, including one in Al Ain and Al Dhafra.
• Libraries are free to visit and visitors can consult books, use online resources and study there. Most are open from 8am to 8pm on weekdays, closed on Fridays and have variable hours on Saturdays, except for Qasr Al Watan which is open from 10am to 8pm every day.
• In order to borrow books, visitors must join the service by providing a passport photograph, Emirates ID and a refundable deposit of Dh400. Members can borrow five books for three weeks, all of which are renewable up to two times online.
• If users do not wish to pay the fee, they can still use the library’s electronic resources for free by simply registering on the website. Once registered, a username and password is provided, allowing remote access.
• For more information visit the library network's website.
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Recent winners
2002 Giselle Khoury (Colombia)
2004 Nathalie Nasralla (France)
2005 Catherine Abboud (Oceania)
2007 Grace Bijjani (Mexico)
2008 Carina El-Keddissi (Brazil)
2009 Sara Mansour (Brazil)
2010 Daniella Rahme (Australia)
2011 Maria Farah (Canada)
2012 Cynthia Moukarzel (Kuwait)
2013 Layla Yarak (Australia)
2014 Lia Saad (UAE)
2015 Cynthia Farah (Australia)
2016 Yosmely Massaad (Venezuela)
2017 Dima Safi (Ivory Coast)
2018 Rachel Younan (Australia)
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
The biog
Name: Younis Al Balooshi
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Doctorate degree in forensic medicine at the University of Bonn
Hobbies: Drawing and reading books about graphic design
PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
