The speed and extent of the Afghan military collapse has stunned many observers including US President Joe Biden's administration, which has ordered the Pentagon to pull an about-face and temporarily deploy 3,000 troops to Kabul right as America was supposed to be ending its longest war.
But the cascading losses for Afghanistan’s security forces and a seemingly imminent Taliban march on Kabul were largely predictable and underscore the shortcomings of western counterinsurgency doctrine, experts say.
A similar rout occurred in Iraq in 2014 -- three years after the US had ended operations there -- when ISIS rampaged across the country, committing sectarian atrocities as they went.
Iraqi security forces had benefited from years of western training and equipping as well as billions of dollars in funding, yet they failed their first big battlefield test, often giving up without ever firing a shot as ISIS attacked. The US military had to return to Iraq to help vanquish the extremists.
“The collapse of the Iraqi security forces in 2014 should have been a warning to the US and Nato that it was very possible the same thing would happen in Afghanistan -- but they never internalised the lessons,” said Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies.
US-led military efforts in both Iraq and Afghanistan focused on trying to build national forces that loosely mirrored western militaries, with a centralised command structure and ground units that were often reliant on close-air support.
The Pentagon would boast of the nascent armies’ growing effectiveness while understating their reliance on western trainers, air power and cash to spur them on.
“We gave them weapons, we gave them an organisation and all the trappings of a western military, but they weren't prepared to fight like a western military," Mr Roggio said.
In its push to build mini, US-style militaries, the Pentagon gave Black Hawk helicopters to the Afghan air force and M1 Abrams tanks to Iraq, even though such gear is notoriously tough to maintain without regular servicing from US troops or contractors.
ISIS seized donated US Humvees and military gear from Iraqi security forces; now the Taliban are doing the same thing in Afghanistan.
Dan Grazier, a former Marine Corps captain who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, wrote a paper in 2020 in which he argued that providing a foreign government with security forces it cannot support independently or that do not match its security needs sets that country up for failure.
He pointed to Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan as wars in which US efforts to build local militaries fell short.
“The United States does not have a very good track record of doing this,” Mr Grazier, who is now a defence researcher at the nonpartisan Project On Government Oversight, told The National.
“We’ve already seen the Iraqi army collapse and now we are in the process of watching the Afghan army collapse, so if that isn’t evidence of why we should stay out of these things, I don’t know what is.”
Another major driver of Iraqi and Afghan militaries' failure has been the endemic corruption in both countries. On paper, Afghanistan's 300,000 troops and police vastly outnumber the Taliban's 75,000 or so fighters, but numerical advantages matter little when soldiers won't fight.
Afghanistan analysts have warned of the corrosive impacts of corruption for years. Foot soldiers would go months with no pay while commanders pocketed their salaries and that of “ghost soldiers” who didn't exist.
The central government in Kabul has been woefully ineffective at provisioning Afghan forces with food and ammunition, and has repeatedly failed to send backup to units under attack.
In recent years, young recruits were often sent to remote posts where they became sitting ducks for Taliban attacks just so a local politician could fly the Afghan flag over his fiefdom.
All of this eroded the motivation of Afghan forces to stand up to the Taliban advance.
Charles Lister, a senior fellow and director of the Syria and counter-terrorism programmes at the Middle East Institute, said the key factor in the Afghan military's collapse is the rapid withdrawal by US and Nato forces.
“The most underappreciated element here is the morale boost, the confidence that came with knowing that US and Nato forces were on the ground, they had the back of Afghan security forces," Mr Lister said.
"When that’s not there anymore, the only source of morale that Afghan forces can rely on is their central government and clearly we are seeing that that is not enough.”
Another factor to consider is the "unifying power of jihadist ideology", Mr Lister added. It "repeatedly proves itself more capable as a mobiliser when facing a corrupt, disunited government."
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was first agreed to last year by then-president Donald Trump, who signed off on a pullout by May of this year.
Mr Biden pushed the date back by only a few months and the withdrawal was on track to finish by the end of August.
So far, Mr Biden has appeared resolute in his decision to quit Afghanistan, even as political blowback grows and reports of potential Taliban war crimes proliferate.
An additional 3,000 US troops are due to arrive in Kabul at the weekend but the Pentagon and State Department have stressed they are only there temporarily to help extract stranded US diplomats, personnel and some of the tens of thousands of Afghans who worked with America over the years and now face Taliban reprisals.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: SimpliFi
Started: August 2021
Founder: Ali Sattar
Based: UAE
Industry: Finance, technology
Investors: 4DX, Rally Cap, Raed, Global Founders, Sukna and individuals
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Race card
1.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
2pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 84,000 (D) 1,400m
2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,200m
3pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1.950m
3.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,800m
4pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 68,000 (D) 1,000m
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
South Africa's T20 squad
Duminy (c), Behardien, Dala, De Villiers, Hendricks, Jonker, Klaasen (wkt), Miller, Morris, Paterson, Phangiso, Phehlukwayo, Shamsi, Smuts.
The Bio
Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder MHEV
Power: 360bhp
Torque: 500Nm
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Price: from Dh282,870
On sale: now
FIGHT CARD
Bantamweight Hamza Bougamza (MAR) v Jalal Al Daaja (JOR)
Catchweight 67kg Mohamed El Mesbahi (MAR) v Fouad Mesdari (ALG)
Lighweight Abdullah Mohammed Ali (UAE) v Abdelhak Amhidra (MAR)
Catchweight 73kg Mostafa Ibrahim Radi (PAL) v Yazid Chouchane (ALG)
Middleweight Yousri Belgaroui (TUN) v Badreddine Diani (MAR)
Catchweight 78kg Rashed Dawood (UAE) v Adnan Bushashy (ALG)
Middleweight Sallaheddine Dekhissi (MAR) v Abdel Emam (EGY)
Catchweight 65kg Rachid Hazoume (MAR) v Yanis Ghemmouri (ALG)
Lighweight Mohammed Yahya (UAE) v Azouz Anwar (EGY)
Catchweight 79kg Omar Hussein (PAL) v Souhil Tahiri (ALG)
Middleweight Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Laid Zerhouni (ALG)
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Non-oil%20trade
%3Cp%3ENon-oil%20trade%20between%20the%20UAE%20and%20Japan%20grew%20by%2034%20per%20cent%20over%20the%20past%20two%20years%2C%20according%20to%20data%20from%20the%20Federal%20Competitiveness%20and%20Statistics%20Centre.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%2010%20years%2C%20it%20has%20reached%20a%20total%20of%20Dh524.4%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECars%20topped%20the%20list%20of%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20re-exported%20to%20Japan%20in%202022%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh1.3%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJewellery%20and%20ornaments%20amounted%20to%20Dh150%20million%20while%20precious%20metal%20scraps%20amounted%20to%20Dh105%20million.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERaw%20aluminium%20was%20ranked%20first%20among%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20exported%20to%20Japan.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETop%20of%20the%20list%20of%20commodities%20imported%20from%20Japan%20in%202022%20was%20cars%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh20.08%20billion.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Match info
Liverpool 3
Hoedt (10' og), Matip (21'), Salah (45 3')
Southampton 0
