Rarely has a superpower with its military might massed near the shores of a weaker adversary looked so politically ineffective.
While the US seeks to constrain Iran, its "maximum pressure" policy faces hurdles.
Domestic divisions, sharp differences with Europe and Russia regarding Tehran, Qatar's reluctance to ostracise its neighbour, and general disinterest in Washington's plan for an 'Arab Nato' give Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei strategic solace, despite crippling blows to the economy from US sanctions.
Those sanctions are the most outwardly effective of Washington’s multifaceted strategy towards Iran. US officials say they have cut Iran’s oil revenue by tens of billions of dollars, contributing to a plummeting economy.
The Iranian rial was trading on the black market at about 134,000 to the dollar on Sunday, compared with 32,000 at the signing of the Iran nuclear deal in July 2015.
US President Donald Trump said this weekend that Washington would impose further sanctions on Tehran, to add to a series since last May, when the US unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal.
The Trump administration wants to force Iran to negotiate a broader agreement that includes its missile programme, its role in Iraq and in civil wars in Syria and Yemen.
But US officials privately acknowledge that the government in Tehran may survive its maximum pressure, even in a worst-case “North Korea scenario”, in which a police state maintains control over an impoverished population by crushing dissent.
North Korea is also suspected of supplying military hardware to Iran in contravention of an international ban, and backs Iran’s ally Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, who shows little concern about a collapsed economy as long as he controls the armed forces.
Despite grumbling about the lack of economic help from Europe and China, Tehran maintains economic and diplomatic ties with Beijing and European countries opposed to the US scrapping the nuclear deal.
These countries have resisted US efforts to cast Iran as a pariah state, despite Tehran’s suspected involvement in attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for oil to China and Europe.
US officials say Iran was behind attacks on at least six oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman in the past two months, as well as missile and drone attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia, including on an oil pipeline.
Germany, France and the UAE have not joined Washington in directly assigning responsibly to Tehran.
On Thursday, Iran downed a US Global Hawk surveillance drone, increasing the prospect of open conflict between the two states.
Tension has been progressively rising since Tehran suspended two of its commitments under the nuclear deal last month, just days after the anniversary of Washington’s withdrawal.
Visits to Tehran by the German and Japanese foreign ministers have failed to limit escalations.
Iran has taken advantage of criticism of Mr Trump’s “deal of the century” for the Palestine-Israel conflict to portray itself as a champion of the Palestinian cause.
Most Palestinian figures have said they will boycott a US-led economic incentives workshop in Bahrain later this week.
A Russian representative will attend the Bahrain meeting, helping to counter Iranian assertions about its insignificance. But Iran has reached an understanding with Moscow over Syria, Russian commentators say.
Moscow will keep official Iranian forces away from Israel’s border while doing little to stop Israeli strikes on Iranian-backed militias, with Iran apparently not too concerned about casualties among its proxies.
US officials believe Russia is not happy with Iran’s growing power in Syria, although there are no official signs from Moscow about wanting Iran out.
US and Russian national security advisers are meeting in Israel this week to discuss Syria, in one of the highest level encounters relating to the civil war there since Mr Trump took office.
US State Department official Brian Hook, who is leading Washington’s diplomatic campaign against Iran, said Russia saw “diminishing value in Iran’s presence in Syria” and that there would be no stability if Iran were allowed to use Syria a “forward deployed missile base” against Israel.
In an interview in Abu Dhabi with The National, Mr Hook expressed dissatisfaction over the reluctance of Russia and other unnamed countries to support the US drive for Iran to "stop providing lethal assistance and funding to proxies around the Middle East".
“It is the right standard that the world needs to hold Iran accountable to,” he said.
Mr Hook said the world could not continue to let Iran get away with what he termed the status quo of an “acceptable level of violence".
But Dennis Ross, a former aide to president Barack Obama, said the Trump administration “seems to have few answers for the Iranian asymmetric responses to our pressure campaign”.
Writing in The Washington Post last week, Mr Ross said the US pursuit of deterrence against Tehran was compromised by the reluctance of European countries to blame Iran for the tanker attacks.
He said this was because they did not trust that Mr Trump would not use their endorsement to launch a war.
Mr Trump has repeatedly said he does not want war. He said he refrained from striking Iran after an American surveillance drone was shot down because it would not have been proportional.
But Mr Ross said European fears of US action could encourage Europe to join in providing international protection for Gulf tanker traffic that would “blunt Iranian sabotage without a war”.
While not excluding the possibility of more attacks that would disrupt the oil markets, Mr Ross said the presence of China in such an effort would have “a chilling effect on Iran”.
But he said it would need Mr Trump to embrace a multilateral approach and halt his trade war with Beijing.
For the immediate future, the status quo of “acceptable violence” seems likely to continue.
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
THE DETAILS
Deadpool 2
Dir: David Leitch
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Josh Brolin, Justin Dennison, Zazie Beetz
Four stars
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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Overview
What: The Arab Women’s Sports Tournament is a biennial multisport event exclusively for Arab women athletes.
When: From Sunday, February 2, to Wednesday, February 12.
Where: At 13 different centres across Sharjah.
Disciplines: Athletics, archery, basketball, fencing, Karate, table tennis, shooting (rifle and pistol), show jumping and volleyball.
Participating countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar and UAE.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE)
Matches can be watched on BeIN Sports
The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz GLE
Price, base / as tested Dh274,000 (estimate)
Engine 3.0-litre inline six-cylinder
Gearbox Nine-speed automatic
Power 245hp @ 4,200rpm
Torque 500Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.4L / 100km
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
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How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
The bio
Favourite food: Japanese
Favourite car: Lamborghini
Favourite hobby: Football
Favourite quote: If your dreams don’t scare you, they are not big enough
Favourite country: UAE
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
Kat Wightman's tips on how to create zones in large spaces
- Area carpets or rugs are the easiest way to segregate spaces while also unifying them.
- Lighting can help define areas. Try pendant lighting over dining tables, and side and floor lamps in living areas.
- Keep the colour palette the same in a room, but combine different tones and textures in different zone. A common accent colour dotted throughout the space brings it together.
- Don’t be afraid to use furniture to break up the space. For example, if you have a sofa placed in the middle of the room, a console unit behind it will give good punctuation.
- Use a considered collection of prints and artworks that work together to form a cohesive journey.
Company%20profile
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
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The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
