NEW YORK // The withdrawal of US troops from Yemen has jeopardised Washington’s efforts to promote its counterterrorism strategy there as a template for success.
Just six months ago, the White House tried to present Yemen as a model for its two-pronged counterterrorism programme, with US drone strikes and commando raids coupled with the training and advising of local forces who provide vital intelligence and take ownership of the fight. However, the US withdrew 125 special operations troops – its last forces in Yemen – from Al Anad air base on Saturday. The decision came after Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula stormed the nearby southern city of Al Houta, threatening to push the country closer towards a sectarian war.
Until then, the US had been training and advising Yemeni military and tribal fighters.
The US lost its crucial base against Aqap, considered the greatest terrorist threat to the US homeland, just as the group is moving to exploit Yemen’s growing conflict to gain territory and support through local tribes. There are also signs ISIL hopes to use the power vacuum to expand, as it has done successfully in Libya.
The US counterterrorism model in Yemen was not without its critics, who said that while the frequent targeting of mid-level leadership may have disrupted its ability to attack the west, the unpopular drone strikes played into Aqap’s narrative and the group actually gained new adherents. But the deepening conflict and withdrawal of US forces jeopardises the many gains the US did make against the militants.
The US state department says the loss of special operators will not affect counterterrorism capabilities, and American drones have continued their controversial strikes since most personnel were pulled from Yemen last month.
“We continue to actively monitor threats and have resources prepared in the region to address them,” spokeswoman Marie Harf said on Monday. Drones flying from bases in Africa and the Gulf will still carry out strikes, and other assets can monitor electronic communications.
But security experts and US military officials say the withdrawal could have significant implications for counterterrorism operations efforts in Yemen such as on-the-ground intelligence networks, the capacity of local forces and relationships with southern tribes. The loss of such capabilities in Iraq has hampered the US-led coalition’s fight against ISIL.
“Any time you lose the ability to train and assist, it brings your counterterrorism programme to a screeching halt,” said Jim Reese, a retired Delta Force commander who served in the Middle East. “You lose momentum, you lose access, you lose a lot of things when you have to pull out.”
Yemen’s president Abdrabu Mansur Hadi was a close counterterrorism partner for the US, until he was forced to flee south to Aden after being ousted by Houthi rebels. Before that, US special forces were deeply involved in Yemeni ground operations against Aqap.
The US force acted as forward observers and combat advisers who provided tactical intelligence and even called in airstrikes, said Captain Robert A Newson, a US navy Seal who led the US Special Operations Command in Yemen from 2010 to 2012, told the US military’s Combating Terrorism Center journal last month.
US special operators, while not legally allowed to engage in combat, also picked up intelligence available only through sustained close interaction with local counterparts.
“We’re not getting face-to-face debriefs from Yemenis, communication becomes fewer and farther between now,” Mr Reese said.
“The US had a lot of partners in the Yemeni security apparatus, and most of those have been lost because of Ansar Allah,” said Charles Schmitz, a professor at Towson University and expert on Yemeni politics and counterterrorism policy, referring to the Houthis’ military arm.
As Yemeni forces opposed to the Houthis frame the conflict in increasingly sectarian terms – a narrative bolstered by Iran’s overt military and financial support for the rebels – Yemen experts fear that southern tribes may be persuaded to support Aqap. The provision of basic services by the terrorist group could also add to their appeal.
A double suicide bombing claimed by ISIL supporters killed nearly 150 Zaidi worshippers during Friday prayers last week.
Some Aqap commanders are reportedly considering a merger with ISIL, and a split within the Al Qaeda group would add yet another layer of complexity to the chaos.
Aqap has proven to be the most committed and capable Al Qaeda affiliate in terms of planning serious attacks against the West, and officials fear that civil war in Yemen could provide them more time and space to plot.
As Yemeni government forces crumble, the southern tribes could be Washington’s best potential ally in its fight against Aqap, the analysts said.
“When national coherence is declining, like we are currently seeing in Yemen, it sure would be a strategic asset, even a game changer, to have a relationship with the southern Yemeni tribes,” Captain Newson told the CTC Sentinel.
But without a US presence and relationships on the ground, dissuading Yemen’s southern tribes from allying with Aqap against the Houthis will be even more difficult.
However, the rise of Houthi power may work to America’s advantage. The Shiite rebels have already scored a major victory over Aqap in Bayda province, and shown they are willing to sustain heavy losses. Last Friday’s mosque bombings have only bolstered that resolve.
In the short term, it “spells trouble for Al Qaeda if the Houthis come pouring in” to gain control in the south, Mr Schmitz said. If there is a more protracted insurgency-style war waged by Aqap, “they would be too busy doing that than trying to hurt the United States”.
tkhan@thenational.ae
