Sea ice could disappear during some summer days in the Arctic within the next few years, researchers have warned.
A study by scientists at the University of Colorado Boulder suggest the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur more than 10 years earlier than previous projections.
Greenhouse gas emissions are the main contributors to sea ice loss. As the amount of heat from the Sun absorbed by the ocean increases in the Arctic, warming and melting results.
Analysing sea-ice coverage data from computational climate models to predict how it may change, researchers suggest an ice-free Arctic is “inevitable”.
The team predicts there could be no sea ice in the Arctic Ocean for the first time on a late August or early September day, when levels are traditionally at a minimum, sometime by the beginning of the 2030s under all greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Under the world’s current path, which researchers refer to as an “intermediate emissions scenario”, the Arctic Ocean might become ice-free by mid-century from August to October.
But in the worst-case, highest-emissions scenario, the Arctic, which is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, could become ice-free nine months a year, including during some the winter.
“This would transform the Arctic into a completely different environment, from a white summer Arctic to a blue Arctic,” said Alexandra Jahn, associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and fellow at CU Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research.
"So even if ice-free conditions are unavoidable, we still need to keep our emissions as low as possible to avoid prolonged ice-free conditions."
An ice-free Arctic Ocean is not entirely free of ice but defined as having less than 1 million square km (386,000 square miles) of coverage.
That is less than 20 per cent of the region’s seasonal minimum ice cover in the 1980s.
And it is significantly less than in recent years, when the Arctic Ocean had about 3.3 million square km of sea ice at its minimum in the month of September.
“When it comes to communicating what scientists expect to happen in the Arctic, it is important to predict when we might observe the first ice-free conditions in the Arctic, which will show up in the daily satellite data,” Ms Jahn said.
Declining levels of sea ice have a significant impact on Arctic animals that rely on it for survival, such as seals and polar bears. In addition, as the ocean warms up, researchers are concerned that non-native fish could move into the Arctic Ocean causing an adverse effect on the ecosystem.
The loss of sea ice also poses a risk to the communities living near the coastal region.
Sea ice acts as a buffer to ocean waves crashing on to coastal land, Ms Jahn said.
As the ice retreats, ocean waves are set to get bigger, causing more coastal erosion.
While an ice-free Arctic may be inevitable, Ms Jahn said emission levels will still determine how often the conditions occur.
The researchers stress that Arctic sea ice is resilient and can return quickly if the atmosphere cools down.
“Unlike the ice sheet in Greenland that took thousands of years to build, even if we melt all the Arctic sea ice, if we can then figure out how to take C02 back out of the atmosphere in the future to reverse warming, sea ice will come back within a decade,” she said.
Nasa’s National Snow and Ice Data Centre warned that the average monthly Arctic sea ice in February was the 15th lowest in the satellite record, with temperatures above average but still well below freezing.
It said: ”Based on the linear trend, February has lost 1.84 million square km of ice since 1979. This is equivalent to the size of Alaska.”
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Recent winners
2002 Giselle Khoury (Colombia)
2004 Nathalie Nasralla (France)
2005 Catherine Abboud (Oceania)
2007 Grace Bijjani (Mexico)
2008 Carina El-Keddissi (Brazil)
2009 Sara Mansour (Brazil)
2010 Daniella Rahme (Australia)
2011 Maria Farah (Canada)
2012 Cynthia Moukarzel (Kuwait)
2013 Layla Yarak (Australia)
2014 Lia Saad (UAE)
2015 Cynthia Farah (Australia)
2016 Yosmely Massaad (Venezuela)
2017 Dima Safi (Ivory Coast)
2018 Rachel Younan (Australia)
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
School counsellors on mental well-being
Schools counsellors in Abu Dhabi have put a number of provisions in place to help support pupils returning to the classroom next week.
Many children will resume in-person lessons for the first time in 10 months and parents previously raised concerns about the long-term effects of distance learning.
Schools leaders and counsellors said extra support will be offered to anyone that needs it. Additionally, heads of years will be on hand to offer advice or coping mechanisms to ease any concerns.
“Anxiety this time round has really spiralled, more so than from the first lockdown at the beginning of the pandemic,” said Priya Mitchell, counsellor at The British School Al Khubairat in Abu Dhabi.
“Some have got used to being at home don’t want to go back, while others are desperate to get back.
“We have seen an increase in depressive symptoms, especially with older pupils, and self-harm is starting younger.
“It is worrying and has taught us how important it is that we prioritise mental well-being.”
Ms Mitchell said she was liaising more with heads of year so they can support and offer advice to pupils if the demand is there.
The school will also carry out mental well-being checks so they can pick up on any behavioural patterns and put interventions in place to help pupils.
At Raha International School, the well-being team has provided parents with assessment surveys to see how they can support students at home to transition back to school.
“They have created a Well-being Resource Bank that parents have access to on information on various domains of mental health for students and families,” a team member said.
“Our pastoral team have been working with students to help ease the transition and reduce anxiety that [pupils] may experience after some have been nearly a year off campus.
"Special secondary tutorial classes have also focused on preparing students for their return; going over new guidelines, expectations and daily schedules.”
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
If you go
- The nearest international airport to the start of the Chuysky Trakt is in Novosibirsk. Emirates (www.emirates.com) offer codeshare flights with S7 Airlines (www.s7.ru) via Moscow for US$5,300 (Dh19,467) return including taxes. Cheaper flights are available on Flydubai and Air Astana or Aeroflot combination, flying via Astana in Kazakhstan or Moscow. Economy class tickets are available for US$650 (Dh2,400).
- The Double Tree by Hilton in Novosibirsk ( 7 383 2230100,) has double rooms from US$60 (Dh220). You can rent cabins at camp grounds or rooms in guesthouses in the towns for around US$25 (Dh90).
- The transport Minibuses run along the Chuysky Trakt but if you want to stop for sightseeing, hire a taxi from Gorno-Altaisk for about US$100 (Dh360) a day. Take a Russian phrasebook or download a translation app. Tour companies such as Altair-Tour ( 7 383 2125115 ) offer hiking and adventure packages.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
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Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
The Bio
Favourite Emirati dish: I have so many because it has a lot of herbs and vegetables. Harees (oats with chicken) is one of them
Favourite place to go to: Dubai Mall because it has lots of sports shops.
Her motivation: My performance because I know that whatever I do, if I put the effort in, I’ll get results
During her free time: I like to drink coffee - a latte no sugar and no flavours. I do not like cold drinks
Pet peeve: That with every meal they give you a fries and Pepsi. That is so unhealthy
Advice to anyone who wants to be an ironman: Go for the goal. If you are consistent, you will get there. With the first one, it might not be what they want but they should start and just do it
UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
