When Guillaume Faury, chief executive of Airbus, publicly voiced his concerns over Germany's “damaging” foot-dragging on a new batch of sales of the Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet this week, he was speaking as much for the British defence giant BAE as his own interests.
For decades, the Typhoon has symbolised BAE's strongest Middle East relationship but sales of a batch of 48 aircraft are subject to a German veto and caught up in that country's coalition politics.
Whereas the issue might once have dogged BAE's stock market standing, the rising tide of global defence sales mean its relentless share price has been barely trimmed.
“BAE sales are diversified across several arenas including electronic systems, maritime related equipment, cyber and intelligence and aircraft sales,” Keith Bowman, investment analyst at Interactive Investor told The National.
The latest strong run seems to have its origins in the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022
Russ Mould,
investment director, AJ Bell
“During 2022, aircraft-related profit proved its biggest earner, followed closely by electronic systems, with maritime equipment a clear third.
“As such, sales to Saudi matter, although must be taken within the context of the diverse bigger picture.”
Overall, economists tend to agree that wars are not good for economies. They mess with demand, redirect resources that would otherwise be gainfully employed and destroy economic infrastructure.
Modern conflicts mess with economic demand and destroy prewar business, apart from inflicting more wide-reaching effects, such as on the price of oil.
One industrial sector that does well in times of heightened geopolitical tension is defence, a fact that has been reflected in the recent share price performance of the UK's largest defence company, BAE Systems.
Geopolitical tension and conflicts such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Gaza conflict and any potential China-Taiwan tension have fed a rising tide for the sector.
Shares in BAE Systems have soared in value by 151 per cent in the past three years and have gained about 10 per cent in the last month alone.
With a market capitalisation of about £33 billion, BAE Systems coffers are, for the most part, filled by the earnings from fighter jet programmes, which include the Eurofighter Typhoon and F-35 Lightning.
Last year, BAE Systems' largest markets were the US, the UK and Saudi Arabia.
'Indirect beneficiary'
The UK government defence budget has been increasing for some time, especially following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when there were renewed calls for an increase to defence spending.
In 2021-2022, the UK spent £45.9 billion on defence. In his budget back in the Spring of this year, UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced an additional £5 billion to defence spending over the next two years, and a further £2 billion a year in subsequent years up to 2028.
This increases defence spending by a total of £11 billion over this five-year period.
“BAE is directly impacted by the Ukraine war, because various countries are providing Ukraine with arms and BAE is a key government contractor,” Jamie Murray at Shore Capital told The National.
“With respect to Israel, I would view BAE as an indirect beneficiary. It doesn’t have a material exposure to Israel’s defence supply chain, but the conflict is ratcheting up geopolitical tensions, which in turn typically leads to higher defence spending which does benefit BAE."
But even though BAE Systems may have no "material exposure to Israel’s defence supply chain", hundreds of trade union activists blockaded the company's factory in Kent on Friday, under the banner "Workers for a Free Palestine", accusing BAE of supplying parts for the aircraft being used in the bombardment of Gaza.
BAE Systems shares are up 26 per cent so far this year and their earnings per share (EPS) have grown by 19 per cent, which compares favourably to a FTSE 100 index loss of about 2 per cent so far this year.
“BAE Systems’ share price stands at an all-time high for a variety of reasons, but the latest strong run seems to have its origins in the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022,” Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, told The National.
“A new conflict in the Middle East is also reminding investors of the potential value of defence stocks after a long period when environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns and screens saw many portfolio builders intentionally exclude them from consideration.
“Those investors with long memories may also hark back to the 1970s, when defence stocks were one of the very few groupings to thrive during a time of conflict in the Middle East, oil price shocks, sticky inflation and soaring interest rates.
“That performance owed much to the [regrettably] consistent nature of demand for their products, which also conferred a degree of pricing power, a useful facet when input costs were rising,” he added.
For Mr Bowman, BAE’s performance so far this year has been “rewarding”.
“A 26 per cent gain in the price during 2023 compares to 0.5 per cent loss for the FTSE 100 and a 1.15 per cent retreat for the FTSE-All Share index,” he told The National.
“That said, other defence exposed companies Rolls-Royce and Babcock have generated gains of 137 per cent and 43 per cent year-to-date.”
There is no doubt that geopolitical tension and conflict have provided the support for BAE Systems soaring share price in recent years, but what of the future?
At least some of the increase in defence spending by governments, including the UK, will find its way into BAE Systems' sales ledger and then to the profit and loss account. But have those investors who do not currently hold BAE Systems shares missed the boat?
As a mathematical rule, when share prices rise, their dividend yields drop, meaning that those who invest late in a share make less money back as the price rises.
In BAE Systems' half-year results back in August, the company made two announcements that perked up yet more interest in the shares: An 11 per cent rise in the share dividend and an order book backlog worth a record £66.2 billion.
Given those figures, some analysts argue that even given its impressive share price rise, BAE Systems remains a solid invest for many.
“BAE has a track record of delivering a consistent and progressive dividend, which is highly valued by income investors,” Mr Murray told The National. “If there is an impact on income investors, I would argue it is immaterial.”
The current average price target of BAE shares among its analysts is 1,202.33 pence with a high forecast of 1,285.13-pence and a low forecast of 1,121.00 pence. That would be pretty impressive, given the shares started 2023 around the 860-pence mark and five years ago were hovering around 500-pence.
Saudi Arabia deal
The Saudi relationship remains lucrative for BAE and the Germans have not fully slammed the door on the Typhoon G5 sale. Mr Murray believes there may be some small uplift to the shares, should Germany decide not to use its veto in the final instance.
“Exposure to Saudi Arabia is a key risk factor that investors consider,” he told The National.
“If Germany get rid of their veto, it would mean this risk factor is slightly reduced, which makes the investment case slightly more appealing.
“However, it won’t have any impact on forecasts because analysts currently assume business as usual in Saudi Arabia.”
China and Taiwan
Defence stocks in general are coming back in vogue, as the world starts to feel a less safe place than perhaps it was seven or eight years ago, and governments refocus attention on their armed forces.
“The investment case for defence stocks rests upon consistent demand for their products, and the pricing power this confers, especially once service revenues are taken into account,” said Mr Mould.
“Fat order backlogs can provide good visibility, too, although contractors must then deliver to specification on time and avoid cost overruns.
“Wars and conflicts can be reminders of these potential attractions and the world does feel a less stable place now than it did 10 or 20 years ago, especially as China-Taiwan remains a potential flashpoint in the future, given the technological cold war that is playing out between the West and Beijing right now.”
Experts predict that the current geopolitical tension is not expected to be reduced any time soon, and, if anything, more could be added into the mix within the coming years.
“Even in times of ‘relative’ peace, there are always global tensions and, as such, defence companies benefit as governments work on upgrading existing equipment or start developing the next generation of weapons,” Mr Cole told The National.
“This is certainly the case in Europe, the US and Russia where there is a constant battle to keep ahead of your rivals, and now China is very much joining this race too.
“Globally, most governments spend on defence every year, and so there will always be money to be made in the defence industry.”
Chris%20Jordan%20on%20Sanchit
%3Cp%3EChris%20Jordan%20insists%20Sanchit%20Sharma%20will%20make%20an%20impact%20on%20the%20ILT20%2C%20despite%20him%20starting%20the%20campaign%20on%20Gulf%20Giants'%20bench.%3Cbr%3EThe%20young%20UAE%20seamer%20was%20an%20instant%20success%20for%20the%20side%20last%20season%2C%20and%20remained%20part%20of%20the%20XI%20as%20they%20claimed%20the%20title.%3Cbr%3EHe%20has%20yet%20to%20feature%20this%20term%20as%20the%20Giants%20have%20preferred%20Aayan%20Khan%20and%20Usman%20Khan%20as%20their%20two%20UAE%20players%20so%20far.%3Cbr%3EHowever%2C%20England%20quick%20Jordan%20is%20sure%20his%20young%20colleague%20will%20have%20a%20role%20to%20play%20at%20some%20point.%3Cbr%3E%22Me%20and%20Sanchit%20have%20a%20great%20relationship%20from%20last%20season%2C%22%20Jordan%20said.%3Cbr%3E%22Whenever%20I%20am%20working%20with%20more%20inexperienced%20guys%2C%20I%20take%20pleasure%20in%20sharing%20as%20much%20as%20possible.%3Cbr%3E%22I%20know%20what%20it%20was%20like%20when%20I%20was%20younger%20and%20learning%20off%20senior%20players.%3Cbr%3E%22Last%20season%20Sanchit%20kick-started%20our%20season%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi%20with%20a%20brilliant%20man-of-the-match%20performance.%3Cbr%3E%22Coming%20into%20this%20one%2C%20I%20have%20seen%20a%20lot%20of%20improvement.%20The%20focus%20he%20is%20showing%20will%20only%20stand%20him%20in%20good%20stead.%22%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
From: Ras Al Khaimah
Age: 50
Profession: Electronic engineer, worked with Etisalat for the past 20 years
Hobbies: 'Anything that involves exploration, hunting, fishing, mountaineering, the sea, hiking, scuba diving, and adventure sports'
Favourite quote: 'Life is so simple, enjoy it'
HER%20FIRST%20PALESTINIAN
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Saeed%20Teebi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20256%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%C2%A0House%20of%20Anansi%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Indika
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2011%20Bit%20Studios%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Odd%20Meter%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%205%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20series%20X%2FS%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
The years Ramadan fell in May
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ENGLAND SQUAD
Joe Root (captain), Dom Sibley, Rory Burns, Dan Lawrence, Ben Stokes, Ollie Pope, Ben Foakes (wicketkeeper), Moeen Ali, Olly Stone, Chris Woakes, Jack Leach, Stuart Broad
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
HOW TO WATCH
Facebook: TheNationalNews
Twitter: @thenationalnews
Instagram: @thenationalnews.com
TikTok: @thenationalnews
More on Quran memorisation:
Quick%20facts
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EStorstockholms%20Lokaltrafik%20(SL)%20offers%20free%20guided%20tours%20of%20art%20in%20the%20metro%20and%20at%20the%20stations%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20tours%20are%20free%20of%20charge%3B%20all%20you%20need%20is%20a%20valid%20SL%20ticket%2C%20for%20which%20a%20single%20journey%20(valid%20for%2075%20minutes)%20costs%2039%20Swedish%20krone%20(%243.75)%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ETravel%20cards%20for%20unlimited%20journeys%20are%20priced%20at%20165%20Swedish%20krone%20for%2024%20hours%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAvoid%20rush%20hour%20%E2%80%93%20between%209.30%20am%20and%204.30%20pm%20%E2%80%93%20to%20explore%20the%20artwork%20at%20leisure%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sly%20Cooper%20and%20the%20Thievius%20Raccoonus
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sucker%20Punch%20Productions%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sony%20Computer%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%202%20to%205%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
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The bio
Favourite book: Kane and Abel by Jeffrey Archer
Favourite quote: “The world makes way for the man who knows where he is going.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson, American essayist
Favourite Authors: Arab poet Abu At-Tayyib Al-Mutanabbi
Favourite Emirati food: Luqaimat, a deep-fried dough soaked in date syrup
Hobbies: Reading and drawing
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELong-range%20dual%20motor%20with%20400V%20battery%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E360kW%20%2F%20483bhp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E840Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20touring%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20628km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.7sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20210kph%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh360%2C000%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
Profile of Whizkey
Date founded: 04 November 2017
Founders: Abdulaziz AlBlooshi and Harsh Hirani
Based: Dubai, UAE
Number of employees: 10
Sector: AI, software
Cashflow: Dh2.5 Million
Funding stage: Series A
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Race%20card
%3Cp%3E6pm%3A%20Al%20Maktoum%20Challenge%20Round%201%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(PA)%20%2450%2C000%20(Dirt)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E6.35pm%3A%20Dubai%20Racing%20Club%20Classic%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20%24100%2C000%20(D)%202%2C410m%3Cbr%3E7.10pm%3A%20Dubawi%20Stakes%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(TB)%20%24150%2C000%20(D)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3E7.45pm%3A%20Jumeirah%20Classic%20Trial%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(TB)%20%24150%2C000%20(Turf)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E8.20pm%3A%20Al%20Maktoum%20Challenge%20Round%201%20%E2%80%93%20Group%202%20(TB)%20%24250%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E8.55pm%3A%20Al%20Fahidi%20Fort%20%E2%80%93%20Group%202%20(TB)%20%24180%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E9.30pm%3A%20Ertijaal%20Dubai%20Dash%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20%24100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C000m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Where can I submit a sample?
Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.
Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:
- Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
- Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
- Al Towayya in Al Ain
- NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
- Bareen International Hospital
- NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
- NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
- NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Veere di Wedding
Dir: Shashanka Ghosh
Starring: Kareena Kapoo-Khan, Sonam Kapoor, Swara Bhaskar and Shikha Talsania
Verdict: 4 Stars
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz
Director: Kushan Nandy
Starring: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Bidita Bag, Jatin Goswami
Three stars
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
