The will be a “catastrophic ecosystem collapse” of UK forests within the next 50 years if action is not taken, experts have warned.
The country's forestation is under threat due to competition with society for water, as well as viral diseases and extreme weather affecting forest management.
A list of 15 issues likely to have a significant effect on Britain's forests over the next five decades has been compiled by a team of researchers from across Europe.
The study is the first horizon scanning exercise – a technique used to identify relatively unknown threats, opportunities and trends – of UK forests.
Its aim is to help researchers, practitioners, policymakers and society in general, to address threats before they become critical.
“The next 50 years will bring huge changes to UK forests: the threats they face, the way that we manage them and the benefits they deliver to society," said Dr Eleanor Tew, first author, visiting researcher at the University of Cambridge’s department of zoology, and head of forest planning at Forestry England.
A panel of 42 experts spoke to colleagues to ask about overlooked and emerging issues that were likely to affect forests over the next half a century.
A longlist of 180 items was then whittled down through a series of review s to a shortlist of 30.
The panel identified the top 15 issues likely to have the greatest impact on British forests in the next 50 years, though they were not ranked in order of importance or likelihood of occurrence.
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However, when scored individually “catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse” was the highest ranked issue, with 64 per cent of experts placing it as their top issue and 88 per cent ranking it within their top three.
The term “catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse” refers to numerous interrelated hazards that have a cascading effect on forests, leading to their total or partial collapse.
However, the precise definition of what constitutes forest collapse will vary according to local context.
The experts also suggest that not all emerging issues are threats – some are new opportunities.
They predict that "forest lungs" will be created thanks to an increased understanding of the benefits of trees for society.
“These results are both concerning and exciting," Dr Tew said.
“However, we should be optimistic, remembering that these are possibilities and not certainties.
“Crucially, we have time to act ‒ by responding to the threats and embracing the opportunities future generations can have resilient forests with all the benefits they offer.”
The research, published in the journal Forestry, was funded by Forestry England.
