New economic modelling by the world's leading insurance market, Lloyd's of London, has shown extreme weather events that lead to food and water supply shocks could cost the global economy $5 trillion over a five-year period.
The modelling takes hypothetical extreme, but plausible, weather events, such as severe drought or flooding, and predicts how the scenarios might play out across the global economy and how the damage and crop loss would promote significant shifts in geopolitics and consumer behaviour.
The research was carried out by Lloyd’s Futureset, in partnership with the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, and aims to help businesses, governments and insurers understand how exposed they are to the risks of extreme weather events linked to climate change.
The $5 trillion is an average cost across three levels of severity for an extreme event, which range from $3 trillion for the lowest severity to $17.6 trillion for the most extreme weather calamity.
Within the modelling, the weather events are ranked by the probability of them occurring, with a major event having a once-in-50-year chance of happening, a severe event a once-in-100-year chance and an extreme event a once-in-300-year probability.
“Lloyd’s is committed to building society’s understanding and resilience around systemic risk and protecting our customers against increasing climate threats,” said John Neal, chief executive at Lloyd’s.
“It is critical that our market continues to collaborate with the public and private sectors to address this challenge at scale and ensure a sustainable future for all.”
'Systemic threats'
The complex economic modelling can be applied at the regional level as well.
For example, the research postulates that if an extreme event occurred in Greater China, it would lead to $4.6 trillion in economic losses over five years.
If something like an extreme hurricane hit the Caribbean, the modelling calculates that countries in the region could collectively lose 19 per cent of their gross domestic products over a five-year period.
“The global economy is becoming more complex and increasingly subject to systemic threats,” said Trevor Maynard, executive director of Systemic Risks at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies.
The Lloyd's research highlights a gap between insurance and possible economic losses, because it is estimated that only a third of the global economic losses that could be caused by extreme weather and climate-related risks are currently insured.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
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Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Healthcare spending to double to $2.2 trillion rupees
Launched a 641billion-rupee federal health scheme
Allotted 200 billion rupees for the recapitalisation of state-run banks
Around 1.75 trillion rupees allotted for privatisation and stake sales in state-owned assets
RESULT
Bayern Munich 5 Eintrracht Frankfurt 2
Bayern: Goretzka (17'), Müller (41'), Lewandowski (46'), Davies (61'), Hinteregger (74' og)
Frankfurt: Hinteregger (52', 55')
RESULTS
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (Dirt) 1.600m
Winner: Miller’s House, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Kanood, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
7.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Gervais, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: The Garhoud Sprint Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Important Mission, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.50pm: The Entisar Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Firnas, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Zhou Storm, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
Brief scores:
Liverpool 3
Mane 24', Shaqiri 73', 80'
Manchester United 1
Lingard 33'
Man of the Match: Fabinho (Liverpool)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
What She Ate: Six Remarkable Women & the Food That Tells Their Stories
Laura Shapiro
Fourth Estate
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster who has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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MATCH INFO
Norwich City 1 (Cantwell 75') Manchester United 2 (Aghalo 51' 118') After extra time.
Man of the match Harry Maguire (Manchester United)
