The UK’s new anti-immigration law could ultimately end up costing the country billions because of the “half-baked” analysis of its effect, it is claimed.
The Illegal Migration Act prevents migrants who arrive in the UK by irregular means, such as crossing the English Channel in small boats, from claiming asylum. Instead the government wants to send them back to their home nation or a third country.
A deal is in place with Rwanda to take migrants and, alongside other measures, the government hopes this will deter enough asylum seekers to reduce the £6 million ($7.6 million) a day spent on hotel accommodation for them, one of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s five key pledges.
But the policy faces a legal battle after it was ruled unlawful and so far the government has yet to reach agreements with other safe, third countries to take asylum seekers who arrive in the UK in small boats.
In a new report, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford argues that if there is no deterrent effect and migrants cannot be removed then the “cost of detaining them would accrue each year for an indefinite period”.
Senior researcher Dr Peter Walsh told The National that the government “have put all their eggs in this deterrence basket, but it’s a basket that’s looking flimsy because it’s all relying on Rwanda”.
But, he said, “even if Rwanda goes ahead, there’s a question about whether the capacity will be big enough to accept tens of thousands, so in other words, if it doesn’t have the deterrent effect there’s this risk of a protracted legal limbo” for migrants.
He said there is also an “incentive to abscond” if people are housed in hotels, given the shortage of detention space.
“The impact assessment ignores some of the most important impacts of the Act, such as the effects of detaining or supporting people with no legal status indefinitely if they cannot be removed to Rwanda or another third country,” Dr Walsh said.
As well as sending migrants to third countries, the government hopes that detaining them in camps, such as Wethersfield in Essex, and on barges will act as a deterrent.
The Home Office says in its impact assessment each asylum seeker deterred from coming to the UK will save the taxpayer £106,000, which could reach £165,000 as accommodation costs rise.
But the department itself admits there is “little to no evidence suggesting changes in a destination country’s policies have an impact on deterring people from leaving their countries of origin or travelling without valid permission”.
Marley Morris, associate director of the Institute for Public Policy Research think tank, said the government’s policy is predicated on deterrence.
“It’s not out of the realm of possibility but it’s rather unlikely given what we know about how people behave,” said Mr Morris, who leads the think tank’s work on migration.
If there’s a large number of people being accommodated by the Home Office indefinitely then that’s considerably costly, which is a worse situation than we have now
Marley Morris,
Institute for Public Policy Research
“The likelihood is that there will still be large numbers of people crossing and the government won’t be able to remove them, because they can’t operationalise the Rwanda plan if it’s ruled unlawful. Or if it is lawful they can only realistically remove a few hundred a year.
“So there will be a build-up of people in limbo who can’t access asylum, so that means there will be a build-up of costs.
“If there’s a large number of people being accommodated by the Home Office indefinitely then that’s considerably costly, which is a worse situation than we have now.
“We’re talking billions. Already the asylum accommodation system costs billions but if we start to imagine we have tens of thousands of people arriving each year and very few people being removed, the additional costs could easily get into the billions before long,” Mr Morris said.
“There’s no clear way out of that situation unless they reverse the legislation or find other third countries to remove people to, but it’s hard to see what those countries would be.
“It’s very hard to negotiate with countries to remove large numbers of people to. Why would a country agree to that?”
Mr Morris described the assessment of the Act as being “half-baked” and “failing to take into account all the possibilities that are likely to happen, which most experts believe is likely to be a build-up of the migrant population”.
He also said that it is hard to estimate the cost of the Rwanda scheme given that the government has said it is “commercially sensitive”.
So far it has quoted only a figure of £169,000, the cost of sending a migrant to a third country, which includes supporting them when they get there.
That figure is partly based on a National Audit Office figure from 2016 of £106,000 for supporting a Syrian refugee in the UK for four years, a calculation Mr Morris describes as bizarre.
Tony Smith, a former head of the Border Force, has supported the need for an Illegal Immigration Act to end crossings by small boats, but agrees the government has staked a lot on third countries to take migrants.
“What we're saying to people is ‘you can’t have asylum’, but where are we going to put them?” he told The National.
He said there is no political agreement with the European Union on safe returns, so what is needed is a post-Brexit deal with Brussels to make the Act work in reality.
“Unless we can find a way of removing people and send people back so that there’s no point in getting in a little boat and coming across here from France or you will get removed, then you’re not going to reduce the flow significantly,” he said.
“They’ve bet their boots on Rwanda and unless they can do deals with other third countries or do something with the EU we might just find loads more migrants here who are just in limbo. The new Act has placed a duty on the Secretary of State to remove them all, but operationally, where to?
“We’ve not really planned for a scenario where we can’t send people back and I think the government needs to do a lot of work on international relations so we can start sending people back.”
The Deputy Prime Minister, Oliver Dowden, told the BBC that the govermemt is determined to press on with its policy “because at the moment we are having people in hotels costing us £6 million a day”|.
A Home Office representative said: “Our impact assessment on the Illegal Migration Act showed that doing nothing is not an option.
“We cannot allow the unacceptable strain that the asylum system places on the UK taxpayer, which is why the Act saves £165,000 for every illegal migrant deterred.
“As well as seeking permission to appeal the Court of Appeal’s ruling in relation to Rwanda’s asylum system, the UK has excellent long-standing migration relationships with many countries, which include operational arrangements through to formal agreements to facilitate return of their nationals.”
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Profile Idealz
Company: Idealz
Founded: January 2018
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Size: (employees): 22
Investors: Co-founders and Venture Partners (9 per cent)
if you go
The flights
Emirates flies to Delhi with fares starting from around Dh760 return, while Etihad fares cost about Dh783 return. From Delhi, there are connecting flights to Lucknow.
Where to stay
It is advisable to stay in Lucknow and make a day trip to Kannauj. A stay at the Lebua Lucknow hotel, a traditional Lucknowi mansion, is recommended. Prices start from Dh300 per night (excluding taxes).
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Results
4pm: Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m; Winner: Panadol, Mickael Barzalona (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)
4.35pm: Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m; Winner: Walton Street, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
5.10pm: Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Canvassed, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Midnight Sands, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m; Winner: Lord Glitters, Daniel Tudhope, David O’Meara
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
7.30pm: Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Final Song, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
SERIES SCHEDULE
First Test, Galle International Stadium
July 26-30
Second Test, Sinhalese Sports Club Ground
August 3-7
Third Test, Pallekele International Stadium
August 12-16
First ODI, Rangiri Dambulla Stadium
August 20
Second ODI, Pallekele International Stadium
August 24
Third ODI, Pallekele International Stadium
August 27
Fourth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
August 31
Fifth ODI, R Premadasa Stadium
September 3
T20, R Premadasa Stadium
September 6
ABU%20DHABI%20CARD
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3E5pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Al%20Rabi%20Tower%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(Turf)%201%2C400%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E5.30pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Championship%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(PA)%20Dh180%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6.30pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hili%20Tower%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7pm%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%20Arabian%20Derby%20%E2%80%93%20Prestige%20(PA)%20Dh150%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.30pm%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Championship%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20Dh380%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
TCL INFO
Teams:
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
When December 14-17
WITHIN%20SAND
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Moe%20Alatawi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Ra%E2%80%99ed%20Alshammari%2C%20Adwa%20Fahd%2C%20Muhand%20Alsaleh%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
2019 Asian Cup final
Japan v Qatar
Friday, 6pm
Zayed Sports City Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
match info
Chelsea 2
Willian (13'), Ross Barkley (64')
Liverpool 0
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Brief scores:
Southampton 2
Armstrong 13', Soares 20'
Manchester United 2
Lukaku 33', Herrera 39'
How Apple's credit card works
The Apple Card looks different from a traditional credit card — there's no number on the front and the users' name is etched in metal. The card expands the company's digital Apple Pay services, marrying the physical card to a virtual one and integrating both with the iPhone. Its attributes include quick sign-up, elimination of most fees, strong security protections and cash back.
What does it cost?
Apple says there are no fees associated with the card. That means no late fee, no annual fee, no international fee and no over-the-limit fees. It also said it aims to have among the lowest interest rates in the industry. Users must have an iPhone to use the card, which comes at a cost. But they will earn cash back on their purchases — 3 per cent on Apple purchases, 2 per cent on those with the virtual card and 1 per cent with the physical card. Apple says it is the only card to provide those rewards in real time, so that cash earned can be used immediately.
What will the interest rate be?
The card doesn't come out until summer but Apple has said that as of March, the variable annual percentage rate on the card could be anywhere from 13.24 per cent to 24.24 per cent based on creditworthiness. That's in line with the rest of the market, according to analysts
What about security?
The physical card has no numbers so purchases are made with the embedded chip and the digital version lives in your Apple Wallet on your phone, where it's protected by fingerprints or facial recognition. That means that even if someone steals your phone, they won't be able to use the card to buy things.
Is it easy to use?
Apple says users will be able to sign up for the card in the Wallet app on their iPhone and begin using it almost immediately. It also tracks spending on the phone in a more user-friendly format, eliminating some of the gibberish that fills a traditional credit card statement. Plus it includes some budgeting tools, such as tracking spending and providing estimates of how much interest could be charged on a purchase to help people make an informed decision.
* Associated Press
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Roll of honour 2019-2020
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership
UAE Premiership
}Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes
UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II
UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby
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