The dynamics of Russian politics and the war in Ukraine may have been profoundly changed by the Wagner Group mutiny.
It was one of the most extraordinary days in Russia's recent history where, had Wagner’s boss Yevgeny Prigozhin not lost his nerve, Moscow could have been in flames and President Vladimir Putin’s rule may have collapsed.
Exactly how Saturday 24 June will affect the Kremlin hierarchy and Ukraine’s front line will become more apparent in the coming days and weeks.
What is immediately apparent is that the Russian leader’s political position has been severely undermined, but the extent of this remains unclear.
There has certainly been an emasculation of the Russian military, with the Wagner Group's 30,000 fighters, including a hard core of 5,000 veterans, having been withdrawn from operations.
These have been among Russia's most effective troops, responsible for the eventual capture of Bakhmut. Their loss as a reserve to block any Ukrainian breakthrough could prove costly.
An inescapable fact that will now dog Mr Putin is that hostile forces got the closest to Moscow since the Nazi invasion in 1941.
That an armoured column was able to travel with near impunity to within 300km of the capital will be seen as a serious failure of the internal security forces, including the Rosgvardia national guard.
The incident added weight to the argument that, with so many troops committed to Ukraine, Russia’s armed forces have very little in reserve.
This could well prove pivotal in Ukraine’s counter-offensive planning, knowing that all they need is a breakthrough, with Russian forces having few resources to stop them.
Furthermore, frontline morale among Moscow’s troops must have been shaken by events on Saturday, and their questioning of the war’s legitimacy enhanced by Mr Prigozhin’s widely broadcast comments that the invasion was launched to reward Russian generals.
Ukraine’s information operations will look to use the damage to Mr Putin’s reputation to undermine his troops’ confidence in their leaders. The image of Wagner tanks in Rostov-on-Don and armoured columns on the road to Moscow will prove hard to banish.
Putin’s aura
The war was instigated on the orders of one man and has been continued at his command. That Mr Putin’s aura of authority has been so demonstrably challenged is likely to have an impact on the battlefield.
To add further humiliation, Mr Putin was forced to rely on Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko, who took a direct hand in persuading Mr Prigozhin to stop his advance on Moscow.
But it is still early days, and the situation remains complex. Laurie Bristow, a former British diplomat in Russia, has suggested that there are “several more acts of this to play out”.
“One of the things that we're all struggling with is trying to make sense of what actually happened in the last 24 hours,” he told the BBC. “We don't understand fully why the Russian response was so weak. This is a Russian crisis made in Russia by the failures of the Russian leadership.”
But the West should not get ahead of itself and assume that Saturday’s events meant that “Mr Putin will be leaving power anytime soon”, he added.
Furthermore, very real danger remains over the transition of power if Mr Putin is removed, particularly with Russia possessing the world largest number of nuclear warheads.
Frontline impact
That the mutiny happened in Rostov, the headquarters and main logistics centre of the war in Ukraine, and that its population welcomed Wagner, will have an impact.
While a reported seven helicopters and aircraft were shot down, allegedly by Wagner, commanders did not, at least, have to pull back their few reserves from Ukraine, after it was rumoured that Russian paratroopers were being readied to be sent to defend Moscow.
But Ukraine did also appear to take some advantage of the chaos, making advances to a village within 14 kilometres of Donetsk.
The friction already present within Russia’s high command could well worsen. There will also now be political difficulties in mobilising more conscripts for the next year of war.
“Who would want to fight on for a Russian regime which has shown such weakness, declaring a mutiny and then rowing back within the day?” said John Foreman, a former British defence attaché in Moscow.
Independent political analyst Konstantin Kalachev suggested there was now a “crisis in trust” in Russia’s institutions.
“Putin’s position is weakened,” he told AFP. “Putin underestimated Prigozhin, just as he underestimated Zelenskyy before that."
"He could have stopped this with a phone call to Prigozhin, but he did not.”
Putin positives
One positive for Mr Putin will be that, for now, the Ministry of Defence will no longer suffer the bitter criticism that Mr Prigozhin has levelled at its commanders for the last four months.
Questions remain over whether the deal struck on Saturday will lead to the removal of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and armed forces chief Gen Valery Gerasimov.
But given that the Russian military has proved ineffective under their command, a younger, more vibrant leadership could energise its campaign.
Despite Saturday’s disorder, Russia still managed to carry out its biggest strike in months, sending 53 cruise missiles into Kyiv and elsewhere.
During his 23-year reign, Mr Putin has faced challenges to his power before, but nothing as grave as the Wagner mutiny.
Having overcome the challenge, his strategy will likely be to refocus on Ukraine in the hope that Kyiv’s current offensive will founder.
If that happens, the West’s support could weaken, more so if the US elects a new president next year.
Mr Putin will continue to play the long game, hoping for victory in Ukraine. But his future could well be determined by the "securocrats" and oligarchs who cement his authority, and whose confidence in his leadership could now have been undermined to the point of change.
Under such circumstances, he may be scapegoated for the war, prompting rapid regime change with the potential of an ultra-nationalist leader taking his place.
What is clear is that 24 June 2023 could well prove a pivotal day in the history of Russia.
'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 1 Chelsea 0
De Bruyne (70')
Man of the Match: Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City)
If you go...
Etihad flies daily from Abu Dhabi to Zurich, with fares starting from Dh2,807 return. Frequent high speed trains between Zurich and Vienna make stops at St. Anton.
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
Roll of honour 2019-2020
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership
UAE Premiership
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes
UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II
UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby
'The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window'
Director:Michael Lehmann
Stars:Kristen Bell
Rating: 1/5
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
TALE OF THE TAPE
Manny Pacquiao
Record: 59-6-2 (38 KOs)
Age: 38
Weight: 146lbs
Height: 166cm
Reach: 170cm
Jeff Horn
Record: 16-0-1 (11 KOs)
Age: 29
Weight: 146.2lbs
Height: 175cm
Reach: 173cm
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur (3.30pm)
Burnley v Huddersfield Town (7pm)
Everton v Bournemouth (7pm)
Manchester City v Crystal Palace (7pm)
Southampton v Manchester United (7pm)
Stoke City v Chelsea (7pm)
Swansea City v Watford (7pm)
Leicester City v Liverpool (8.30pm)
Sunday
Brighton and Hove Albion v Newcastle United (7pm)
Monday
Arsenal v West Bromwich Albion (11pm)
COMPANY%20PROFILE%3A
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
'Munich: The Edge of War'
Director: Christian Schwochow
Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons
Rating: 3/5
JERSEY INFO
Red Jersey
General Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the leader of the General Classification by time.
Green Jersey
Points Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the fastest sprinter, who has obtained the best positions in each stage and intermediate sprints.
White Jersey
Young Rider Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the best young rider born after January 1, 1995 in the overall classification by time (U25).
Black Jersey
Intermediate Sprint Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the rider who has gained the most Intermediate Sprint Points.
The%20specs
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Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, Group C
Liverpool v Red Star Belgrade
Anfield, Liverpool
Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
THE SPECS
Engine: six-litre W12 twin-turbo
Transmission: eight-speed dual clutch auto
Power: 626bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh940,160 (plus VAT)
On sale: Q1 2020
more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
Fifa Club World Cup:
When: December 6-16
Where: Games to take place at Zayed Sports City in Abu Dhabi and Hazza bin Zayed Stadium in Al Ain
Defending champions: Real Madrid
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
