If Omicron had been the first Covid strain to emerge in Wuhan in 2020, there could have been significantly more deaths worldwide, an eminent immunologist has said.
Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at the University of Oxford, said the impact of the pandemic “could have been a lot worse” with the highly infectious variant.
He was speaking after comments by former Chinese government scientist Prof George Gao, who said the possibility the coronavirus leaked from a laboratory should not be ruled out.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Sir John said he did not think the evidence of whether it emerged from a lab, or naturally, was conclusive either way.
“I would put it to you that it actually doesn’t make any difference,” he said. “We know historically that we do get pathogens that come from the animal kingdom that get into man that cause these sorts of outbreaks.
“And we also know that labs that look after these very pathogenic viruses do leak.”
How the world responds to be ready for another pandemic is most important, he said.
Sir John said he had recently held a meeting attended by Prof Gao, at which Covid modelling by a company called Airfinity was discussed.
“They did the modelling around the idea that if the first virus that appeared in Wuhan had not been the Wuhan strain, but had been the Omicron strain, which we all know is much, much more infectious,” he said. “And that had hit an immunologically naive population, in other words a population that had never seen the virus before.
“The peak mortality in the UK would have been about five times what it was with the originally Wuhan strain. Remember those were pretty dark times during April and May of 2020 and I don’t think we would have wanted five times the number of people dying.
“And had it been Avian flu it would have been 15 times [higher]. So I think when we hear that there is a great pandemic coming, if either one of those things were to happen, it would be a great deal worse than what we saw.”
In an interview with the BBC, Prof Gao told Radio 4 podcast Fever: The Hunt for Covid's Origin: “You can always suspect anything. That's science. Don't rule out anything.”
Prof Gao is now vice president of the National Natural Science Foundation of China after retiring last year from the CDC, where he played a key role in the pandemic response and efforts to trace how it started.
The theory that Covid leaked accidentally from a Chinese lab resurfaced in February when the FBI's director Christopher Wray said this was where the virus had “most likely” originated, although there is no consensus among US intelligence agencies on the matter.
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
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The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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MATCH INFO
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Man of the Match: Erik Pieters (Stoke)
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.0-litre, twin-turbocharged W12
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 626bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh1,050,000
On sale: now
SPECS
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BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
Brief scores:
Toss: Nepal, chose to field
UAE 153-6: Shaiman (59), Usman (30); Regmi 2-23
Nepal 132-7: Jora 53 not out; Zahoor 2-17
Result: UAE won by 21 runs
Series: UAE lead 1-0
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Directed: Smeep Kang
Produced: Soham Rockstar Entertainment; SKE Production
Cast: Rishi Kapoor, Jimmy Sheirgill, Sunny Singh, Omkar Kapoor, Rajesh Sharma
Rating: Two out of five stars
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
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Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
