The International Monetary Fund has made a U-turn on its prediction that the UK economy will fall into a recession this year.
A month ago, the IMF was forecasting a 0.3 per cent contraction for the UK economy this year, which itself was a revision of a prediction of a 0.6 per cent contraction from a few months earlier.
“Buoyed by resilient demand in the context of declining energy prices, the UK economy is expected to avoid a recession and maintain positive growth in 2023,” the IMF said.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: “Today’s IMF report shows a big upgrade to the UK’s growth forecast and credits our action to restore stability and tame inflation.
“It praises our childcare reforms, the Windsor Framework and business investment incentives. If we stick to the plan, the IMF confirm our long-term growth prospects are stronger than in Germany, France and Italy – but the job is not done yet.”
The less gloomy outlook comes after an IMF team held meetings last week with officials from the Treasury, the Bank of England and City regulator the Financial Conduct Authority, as well as with independent watchdogs at the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Economic growth in the UK will slow to 0.4 per cent in 2023, “held back by tighter monetary and fiscal policies needed to curb inflation, and lingering impacts of the terms-of-trade shock”, the IMF said.
“This latest forecast represents a 0.7 percentage point upgrade to the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook forecast of -0.3 per cent."
The IMF now predicts the UK economy will grow by 1 per cent next year and by 2 per cent in 2025 and 2026.
The IMF's upgraded growth forecast puts the UK ahead of Germany's economy, which is predicted to shrink by 0.1 per cent this year, meaning that Britain can shed the title of “worst-performer” in the G7 group of advanced economies.
"We are likely to see the UK performing better than Germany, for example," IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said in answer to a question from The National.
"One mistake that we often make is that we focus on one year and one year is not the very best way to judge performance of the country.
"If you look at the last three years, then actually the UK's performance is quite good vis-a-vis the rest of the G7.
"So, I think we have to recognise that there has been a very significant turnaround in policy and that is building benefits for the UK, and for the people of the UK."
Inflation still a worry
However, the IMF highlighted the continuing problem of inflation and while figures due out on Wednesday are expected to show inflation fell into single digits in April, the IMF warned against “premature celebrations” that price rises were being tamed.
The IMF forecast inflation would near the Bank of England's 2 per cent target by the middle of 2025, six months later than it had previously predicted. It also stressed the need for the Bank of England to keep monetary policy tight.
“Some further monetary tightening will likely be needed, and rates may have to remain high for longer to bring down inflation more assuredly,” the IMF said.
Ms Georgieva predicted that UK interest rates were unlikely to fall significantly any time soon and said the narrative around them had "somewhat shifted from 'how high?' to 'for how long?'"
Meanwhile, the IMF said UK authorities had dealt well with recent concerns regarding the banking industry, sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and the hurried sale of troubled Credit Suisse to Swiss rival UBS.
“The UK financial system has weathered the recent global banking stress well,” the IMF said.
“Continued strong oversight, including of smaller banks and the diverse non-bank financial sector, will be critical to preserve UK financial stability, which the IMF sees as a global public good.”
Overall, the IMF said while the UK was doing markedly better and was likely to avoid a recession this year, a degree of vigilance was required in fiscal and monetary policy to ensure inflation and other factors do not hamper future growth.
“Monetary policy will need to remain tight in order to keep inflation expectations well-anchored and bring inflation to target,” the IMF said.
“Fiscal policy should continue to be aligned with monetary policy in the fight against inflation, while protecting key public services and the vulnerable.”
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The specs: 2018 Mazda CX-5
Price, base / as tested: Dh89,000 / Dh130,000
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
Power: 188hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 251Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.1L / 100km
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
Getting%20there%20and%20where%20to%20stay
%3Cp%3EEtihad%20Airways%20operates%20seasonal%20flights%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi%20to%20Nice%20C%C3%B4te%20d'Azur%20Airport.%20Services%20depart%20the%20UAE%20on%20Wednesdays%20and%20Sundays%20with%20outbound%20flights%20stopping%20briefly%20in%20Rome%2C%20return%20flights%20are%20non-stop.%20Fares%20start%20from%20Dh3%2C315%2C%20flights%20operate%20until%20September%2018%2C%202022.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EThe%20Radisson%20Blu%20Hotel%20Nice%20offers%20a%20western%20location%20right%20on%20Promenade%20des%20Anglais%20with%20rooms%20overlooking%20the%20Bay%20of%20Angels.%20Stays%20are%20priced%20from%20%E2%82%AC101%20(%24114)%2C%20including%20taxes.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What's%20in%20my%20pazhamkootan%3F
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAdd%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EParippu%20%E2%80%93%20moong%20dal%20and%20coconut%20curry%3Cbr%3ESambar%20%E2%80%93%20vegetable-infused%20toor%20dal%20curry%3Cbr%3EAviyal%20%E2%80%93%20mixed%20vegetables%20in%20thick%20coconut%20paste%3Cbr%3EThoran%20%E2%80%93%20beans%20and%20other%20dry%20veggies%20with%20spiced%20coconut%3Cbr%3EKhichdi%20%E2%80%93%20lentil%20and%20rice%20porridge%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOptional%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EKootukari%20%E2%80%93%20stew%20of%20black%20chickpeas%2C%20raw%20banana%2C%20yam%20and%20coconut%20paste%3Cbr%3EOlan%20%E2%80%93%20ash%20gourd%20curry%20with%20coconut%20milk%3Cbr%3EPulissery%20%E2%80%93%20spiced%20buttermilk%20curry%3Cbr%3ERasam%20%E2%80%93%20spice-infused%20soup%20with%20a%20tamarind%20base%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvoid%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EPayasam%20%E2%80%93%20sweet%20vermicelli%20kheer%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
The five pillars of Islam
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?
Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Results
6.30pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (Dirt) 1,400m. Winner: Rio Angie, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
7.05pm: Handicap Dh170,000 (D) 1,600m. Winner: Trenchard, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
7.40pm: Maiden Dh165,000 (D) 1,600m. Winner: Mulfit, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
8.15pm: Handicap Dh210,000 (D) 1,200m. Winner: Waady, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Handicap Dh210,000 (D) 2,000m. Winner: Tried And True, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
9.25pm:Handicap Dh185,000 (D) 1,400m. Winner: Midnight Sands, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.
'Munich: The Edge of War'
Director: Christian Schwochow
Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons
Rating: 3/5
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (all kick-offs UAE time)
Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (10.30pm)
Saturday
Freiburg v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Paderborn v Hoffenheim (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund (5.30pm)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Sunday
Schalke v Augsburg (3.30pm)
Mainz v RB Leipzig (5.30pm)
Cologne v Fortuna Dusseldorf (8pm)
The view from The National
On the menu
First course
▶ Emirati sea bass tartare Yuzu and labneh mayo, avocado, green herbs, fermented tomato water
▶ The Tale of the Oyster Oyster tartare, Bahraini gum berry pickle
Second course
▶ Local mackerel Sourdough crouton, baharat oil, red radish, zaatar mayo
▶ One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest Quail, smoked freekeh, cinnamon cocoa
Third course
▶ Bahraini bouillabaisse Venus clams, local prawns, fishfarm seabream, farro
▶ Lamb 2 ways Braised lamb, crispy lamb chop, bulgur, physalis
Dessert
▶ Lumi Black lemon ice cream, pistachio, pomegranate
▶ Black chocolate bar Dark chocolate, dates, caramel, camel milk ice cream
HWJN
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Yasir%20Alyasiri%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Baraa%20Alem%2C%20Nour%20Alkhadra%2C%20Alanoud%20Saud%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Racecard:
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah (PA) | Group 2 | US$55,000 (Dirt) | 1,600 metres
7.05pm: Meydan Sprint (TB) | Group 2 | $250,000 (Turf) | 1,000m
7.40pm: Firebreak Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (D) | 1,600m
8.15pm: Meydan Trophy | Conditions (TB) | $100,000 (T) | 1,900m
8.50pm: Balanchine | Group 2 (TB) | $250,000 (T) | 1,800m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (D) | 1,200m
10pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,410m.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
Kanye%20West
%3Cp%3EYe%20%E2%80%94%20the%20rapper%20formerly%20known%20as%20Kanye%20West%20%E2%80%94%20has%20seen%20his%20net%20worth%20fall%20to%20%24400%20million%20in%20recent%20weeks.%20That%E2%80%99s%20a%20precipitous%20drop%20from%20Bloomberg%E2%80%99s%20estimates%20of%20%246.8%20billion%20at%20the%20end%20of%202021.%3Cbr%3EYe%E2%80%99s%20wealth%20plunged%20after%20business%20partners%2C%20including%20Adidas%2C%20severed%20ties%20with%20him%20on%20the%20back%20of%20anti-Semitic%20remarks%20earlier%20this%20year.%3Cbr%3EWest%E2%80%99s%20present%20net%20worth%20derives%20from%20cash%2C%20his%20music%2C%20real%20estate%20and%20a%20stake%20in%20former%20wife%20Kim%20Kardashian%E2%80%99s%20shapewear%20firm%2C%20Skims.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Fixtures (all times UAE)
Saturday
Brescia v Atalanta (6pm)
Genoa v Torino (9pm)
Fiorentina v Lecce (11.45pm)
Sunday
Juventus v Sassuolo (3.30pm)
Inter Milan v SPAL (6pm)
Lazio v Udinese (6pm)
Parma v AC Milan (6pm)
Napoli v Bologna (9pm)
Verona v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Monday
Cagliari v Sampdoria (11.45pm)
