Central bankers in Europe "need to go and kill the beast" of inflation and stay the monetary policy course of raising interest rates to do it, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday.
If rate increases are paused, history is littered with examples where "you will need to have a second attempt" at bringing down inflation, inflicting more economic pain, the IMF's European department director Alfred Kammer said.
Mr Kammer's comments came as the IMF released a report that urged European central bankers to be nimble and not to stray from doing what needs to be done to combat inflation, especially if more turmoil emerges from the banking sector as a result of the continuing fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the urgent sale of Credit Suisse.
“High and potentially more persistent than expected, underlying inflation calls for tight monetary policy until core inflation is unambiguously on a path back to central bank inflation targets,” the IMF report said.
“Another factor pointing to inflation risks is evidence that economic slack in many European economies may be even smaller than estimated after back-to-back shocks.”
More interest-rate increases
Even the UK, where a recession is likely and consumer-price dangers are lower than they are in the eurozone, the IMF said the Bank of England needs to keep up the pressure on inflation.
“Monetary policy may need some further tightening to keep inflation expectations well anchored and bring inflation back to target, though risks to inflation are now more balanced,” the IMF said.
The IMF’s current outlook for the European Central Bank forecasts 0.75 per cent in interest rate rises to 3.75 per cent.
“Further increases in policy rates are required in the euro area, while central banks in emerging European economies should stand ready to tighten further where real rates are low, labour markets are tight, and underlying inflation persistence is high,” the IMF's report said.
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The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
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Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
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Transplants from the deceased have been carried out in hospitals across the globe for decades, but in some countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, the practise was banned until relatively recently.
Opinion has been divided as to whether organ donations from a deceased person is permissible in Islam.
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One school of thought viewed the removal of organs after death as equally impermissible.
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Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
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The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
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The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
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- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Also on December 7 to 9, the third edition of the Gulf Car Festival (www.gulfcarfestival.com) will take over Dubai Festival City Mall, a new venue for the event. Last year's festival brought together about 900 cars worth more than Dh300 million from across the Emirates and wider Gulf region – and that first figure is set to swell by several hundred this time around, with between 1,000 and 1,200 cars expected. The first day is themed around American muscle; the second centres on supercars, exotics, European cars and classics; and the final day will major in JDM (Japanese domestic market) cars, tuned vehicles and trucks. Individuals and car clubs can register their vehicles, although the festival isn’t all static displays, with stunt drifting, a rev battle, car pulls and a burnout competition.
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