The UK economy did not grow in the last three months of 2022, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday.
The ONS numbers show that Britain may have narrowly avoided a technical recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter of last year.
“The economy contracted sharply in December, meaning, overall, there was no growth in the economy over the last three months of 2022,” said Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS.
“In December, public services were hit by fewer operations and GP visits, partly due to the impact of strikes, as well as notably lower school attendance. Meanwhile, the break in Premier League football for the World Cup and postal strikes also caused a slowdown.
“However, these falls were partially offset by a strong month for lawyers, growth in car sales and the cold snap increasing energy generation.
“Across 2022 as a whole, the economy grew 4 per cent. Despite recent squeezes in household incomes, restaurants, bars and travel agents had a strong year.
“Meanwhile, health and education also began to recover from the effects of the pandemic.”
“Not out of the woods yet”
UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned the UK was “not out the woods yet”.
“The fact the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year, as well as avoiding a recession, shows our economy is more resilient than many feared,” he said.
“However, we are not out the woods yet, particularly when it comes to inflation.”
“If we stick to our plan to halve inflation this year, we can be confident of having amongst the best prospects for growth of anywhere in Europe.”
Meanwhile, opposition Labour shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves called for “urgent measures” to be brought forward to alleviate the cost-of-living crisis.
“Today's figures show us how — despite Britain's great potential — our economy is stuck in the slow lane,” she said.
“We must bring in urgent measures to prevent yet more harm from the cost-of-living crisis, using a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants to stop the energy price cap going up in April so that people have more money in their pockets.”
Laura Suter, head of personal finance at AJ Bell, said that the UK had avoided a technical recession “by a hair’s breadth”.
“But while we can’t slap the badge of ‘recession’ on the economy, it’s clear the UK is struggling and everyone is feeling the effect of the malaise in the country’s economy,” she said.
“This economic no-man’s land of no contraction or no growth won’t have people celebrating in the street, particularly considering GDP [gross domestic product] is 0.8 per cent below its pre-pandemic level.”
Probable recession later this year
British business agreed with the Chancellor that the UK was “not out of the woods yet”.
“We may have avoided a technical recession late last year, but we probably won’t avoid one this year. While we expect that the downturn will be shallow, if we act now, we can make the recession even shorter than predicted,” said Ben Jones, lead economist at the Confederation of British Industry.
“All eyes are on the Chancellor’s March budget, when businesses will be looking for a bolder approach to tackling labour and skills shortages, and falling business investment.
“In particular, firms will be looking for a permanent replacement to the super-deduction, as well as a focus on innovation and the green economy, to help boost economic growth in the years ahead.”
The Bank of England predicted last week that the UK economy would shrink in each quarter of 2023.
"We suspect the drags from high inflation and high interest rates will trigger a recession this year," said Paul Dales at Capital Economics.
Revised figures
For many economists the fact that the UK has not fallen into recession now is a moot point, given that the GDP figures out on Friday were preliminary and could well be revised before the end of March.
"The UK avoided a recession last year but by the slimmest of margins. Going by recent data revisions, today's figures could well be revised downwards in a few months, painting a very different picture," said Debapratim De, an economist at Deloitte.
Economists are more concerned about the momentum of the UK economy.
"Out of 35 estimates for UK growth in the first quarter of 2023, 34 are negative, said Guy Foster, chief strategist at wealth manager RBC Brewin Dolphin.
"They are universally negative for Q2, the start of which will see tax increases hitting all UK workers, skewed towards higher earners. These estimates are probably a little stale with the external growth picture looking a little better," he added.
The GDP numbers follow a bleak prediction from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the UK would be the only country in the group of seven rich nations with negative growth in 2023.
In 2020, the UK suffered the biggest contraction among the G7 owing to economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. Britain is also the only G7 member that has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic level of output.
UK economic activity is 0.8 per cent below its 2019 level, the ONS said.
Across 2022 as a whole, Britain's economy grew by 4 per cent, after achieving 7.6 per cent growth in 2021, as it recovered from the Covid pandemic.
Business investment in the final quarter of 2022 was 13.2 per cent higher than a year earlier, and is now back to 2019 levels, before the pandemic.
A Cat, A Man, and Two Women
Junichiro Tamizaki
Translated by Paul McCarthy
Daunt Books
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
Frida%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECarla%20Gutierrez%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Frida%20Kahlo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
CHINESE GRAND PRIX STARTING GRID
1st row
Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)
2nd row
Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes-GP)
Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
3rd row
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing)
Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull Racing)
4th row
Nico Hulkenberg (Renault)
Sergio Perez (Force India)
5th row
Carlos Sainz Jr (Renault)
Romain Grosjean (Haas)
6th row
Kevin Magnussen (Haas)
Esteban Ocon (Force India)
7th row
Fernando Alonso (McLaren)
Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren)
8th row
Brendon Hartley (Toro Rosso)
Sergey Sirotkin (Williams)
9th row
Pierre Gasly (Toro Rosso)
Lance Stroll (Williams)
10th row
Charles Leclerc (Sauber)
arcus Ericsson (Sauber)
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
SQUAD
Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Adel Al Hosani, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Bandar Al Ahbabi, Mohammed Barghash, Salem Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Hassan Al Mahrami, Walid Abbas, Mahmoud Khamis, Yousef Jaber, Saeed Ahmed, Majed Sorour, Majed Hassan, Ali Salmeen, Abdullah Ramadan, Khalil Al Hammadi, Fabio De Lima, Khalfan Mubarak, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Ali Saleh, Caio Canedo, Muhammed Jumah, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
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Short-term let permits explained
Homeowners and tenants are allowed to list their properties for rental by registering through the Dubai Tourism website to obtain a permit.
Tenants also require a letter of no objection from their landlord before being allowed to list the property.
There is a cost of Dh1,590 before starting the process, with an additional licence fee of Dh300 per bedroom being rented in your home for the duration of the rental, which ranges from three months to a year.
Anyone hoping to list a property for rental must also provide a copy of their title deeds and Ejari, as well as their Emirates ID.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champioons League semi-final, first leg:
Liverpool 5
Salah (35', 45 1'), Mane (56'), Firmino (61', 68')
Roma 2
Dzeko (81'), Perotti (85' pen)
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
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