The global travel industry’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic risks being upended by a “nasty European recession” looming on the horizon, a tourism expert has said.
Speaking at the World Travel Market in London, Dave Goodger said no region is immune to economic downturn in specific areas of the world.
Britain’s central bank last week said the economy faces it longest recession in 100 years. It predicted the economic downturn that began in the summer could drag on until mid-2024.
The UK’s neighbours are also facing increasing uncertainty amid an energy crisis, rising fuel prices and the war in Ukraine.
Mr Goodger said gas rationing and blackouts across the continent could not be ruled out this winter.
He said such outcomes would have knock-on effects on airlines and tour operators, despite the fact that some countries have “managed to build up a gas storage”.
“It would be primarily felt in Europe,” he told The National.
“Germany and Italy are probably the two biggest gas-importing markets.”
“They’ve got policies in place to try and reduce their gas usage by 15 per cent,” he said.
“So with that in place, looking at curves for the normal winter, that should be okay. But if it’s a particularly cold winter, then there could be a situation with all of these reserves really running out. There would need to be rationing. Then you're getting into things such as blackouts, not able to heat homes. That will have a much larger impact.”
He predicted a “nasty European recession” that would force advanced economies across the globe to sink into recession over the next 12 months.
He said the problems facing countries in Europe have been exacerbated by supply chain issues, which were present before Russia invaded Ukraine in February.
The global travel industry’s bid to shake off the pandemic is also being challenged by China’s ongoing restrictive policies, designed to protect the country from the coronavirus.
While Travel Economics had initially expected authorities in Beijing to reopen borders this year, Mr Goodger said it is now more likely to happen in 2023.
The ongoing closure of China is being keenly felt by the Asia Pacific travel market compared to other regions, he said.
The Middle East is leading the pack in the recovery stakes, he noted, partly due to hosting major events that attract international audiences.
The director of Tourism Economics noted how the World Expo in Dubai and the upcoming World Cup in Qatar have offered a major boost to Gulf tourism, the effects of which would be felt for years to come.
“These are big draw factors putting these destinations at the window,” he said.
He said it is typical for regions to reap the “benefits of mega events happening in the years afterwards”.
Despite uncertainty and multiple challenges facing the industry, he struck a positive note on the overall post-pandemic recovery.
“It’s one of the things that's been really striking this year,” he explained. “People want to get out and travel. We're social animals. People want to meet they want to get new experiences. That hasn't changed.
“When people can afford to and are able to, they will travel.”
Tourism Economics, a leading travel research firm, is headquartered in Oxford, UK, and has offices in Dubai, Philadelphia, Buenos Aires among other locations.
BANGLADESH SQUAD
Mashrafe Mortaza (captain), Tamim Iqbal, Liton Das, Soumya Sarkar, Mushfiqur Rahim (wicketkeeper), Mahmudullah, Shakib Al Hasan (vice captain), Mohammad Mithun, Sabbir Rahaman, Mosaddek Hossain, Mohammad Saifuddin, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Rubel Hossain, Mustafizur Rahman, Abu Jayed (Reporting by Rohith Nair in Bengaluru Editing by Amlan Chakraborty)
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
DMZ facts
- The DMZ was created as a buffer after the 1950-53 Korean War.
- It runs 248 kilometers across the Korean Peninsula and is 4km wide.
- The zone is jointly overseen by the US-led United Nations Command and North Korea.
- It is littered with an estimated 2 million mines, tank traps, razor wire fences and guard posts.
- Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un met at a building in Panmunjom, where an armistice was signed to stop the Korean War.
- Panmunjom is 52km north of the Korean capital Seoul and 147km south of Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital.
- Former US president Bill Clinton visited Panmunjom in 1993, while Ronald Reagan visited the DMZ in 1983, George W. Bush in 2002 and Barack Obama visited a nearby military camp in 2012.
- Mr Trump planned to visit in November 2017, but heavy fog that prevented his helicopter from landing.
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
WEST ASIA RUGBY 2017/18 SEASON ROLL OF HONOUR
Western Clubs Champions League
Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners up: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Jebel Ali Dragons
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Jebel Ali Dragons
Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership Cup
Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners up: Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership
Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
'O'
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