Liz Truss, the British Foreign Secretary, could be under threat of elimination from the Tory leadership race on Tuesday, with insiders suggesting tactical voting could be used to oust her.
Monday’s fourth-placed candidate Kemi Badenoch gained the most momentum in that poll, with an 18 per cent increase in her votes to 58 — just 13 behind Ms Truss on 71.
There is now speculation that for the fourth ballot some MPs will vote her in ahead of the Cabinet minister.
It is also understood that for this round only, some of the 31 supporters of Tom Tugendhat, who was knocked out on Monday, will “lend” their votes to Ms Badenoch in order to supplant Ms Truss.
They would then back Penny Mordaunt, with whom One Nation Tories ― followers of a form of Conservatism that favours preserving established institutions and traditional principles — are more politically aligned.
This would be in the fifth and final round on Wednesday, that will see the contest reduced to the final pair.
This is almost certain to feature the former chancellor, Rishi Sunak. He has already secured the backing of 115 Conservative MPs, just five short of the 120 required to clinch a place in the final run-off.
He would likely be joined by either Ms Truss or the early favourite, Ms Mordaunt. On Monday, Ms Mordaunt received 82 votes, one down on the previous round.
But before then there will be a few nervous moments for the remaining three women candidates.
One of the key players will be the International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan who was a key supporter to Mr Tugendhat. She is an ardent Brexiteer and influential within the Conservative parliamentary party, having served on the backbenches and as a parliamentary private secretary.
If she is able to move a large number of Mr Tugendhat’s votes to Ms Badenoch today, this would put Ms Truss in real danger of elimination.
There is a suggestion that because Ms Badenoch was a “true” Brexiteer rather than Ms Truss who originally voted remain, the former would be trusted more by the Brexit wing.
However, on Monday she appeared to back down on her arguments that it was not necessary to get Britain to net carbon zero by 2050, which would displease some supporters on the right.
But if, as likely, Ms Badenoch is eliminated on Tuesday, then there will be a major battle to pick up her block vote for Wednesday’s final round.
Mr Tugendhat’s block will likely take Ms Mordaunt to around 110 votes, just ten short of the 120 required to guarantee a place in the final pair.
But the former defence secretary suffered a blow after her supporter Tobias Ellwood had the whip removed — effectively expelled from the Conservative Party — for abstaining in the government's confidence vote on Monday.
He has been an outspoken critic of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government.
If Ms Badenoch is eliminated, Ms Truss, a fellow right-winger, would seek to pick up a large number of her votes to get past Ms Mordaunt.
But equally, Ms Badenoch’s caucus could divide, with a number going for Mr Sunak and a handful to Ms Mordaunt, leaving Ms Truss trailing in third and eliminated.
UK Conservatives on the leadership campaign trail - in pictures
Equally, Mr Sunak’s camp could “lend” a large chunk of votes to the candidate he would rather face in the final run-off. The 160,000 Conservative Party membership will vote on these final candidates, deciding who will become their next leader — and Britain's next prime minister.
In 2019, Jeremy Hunt just beat Michael Gove in the final round by two votes. Mr Hunt was seen as the weaker of the two candidates in the battle against Mr Johnson, leading to allegations that MPs in Mr Johnson’s camp voted for him for tactical reasons.
“There are weird things going on in Westminster and the next two days are going to be tense,” said a Conservative insider.
“This is a game of attrition and smoke and mirrors where the only certainty is the final ballot tally.”
