Overshadowed by the Vienna talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Iran's missile capabilities and proliferation have rapidly expanded, leading one think tank to call for a concerted diplomatic effort to address the threats from the programme.
In a new report the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said it hopes to kick-start efforts to address the missile programme with a range of possible outcomes, including agreements that put limits on the range of Iran's missiles, limits on transfer of the technology to proxy forces, particularly Yemen's Houthis and establishing regional transparency goals.
“The goal of capping the range of Iranian missiles could be effectively achieved through several possible measures, such as a simple moratorium [or ban] on missile flight tests altogether; a formalisation of the 2,000km range limit; an adoption of some other range limit; or a ban on new types of missiles,” the report issued on Tuesday said.
The London-based institute said the consequences of Iran developing fully-fledged long range missiles would have global implications.
“Firstly, if Iran develops long-range [2,000 kilometres or more] missiles, those missiles are unlikely to be designed solely to deliver conventional payloads, as they would have little deterrent effect on the United States or its European allies,” it said. “Rather, such missiles are likely to be designed to carry nuclear warheads, which would have a much higher deterrent effect. Therefore, concerns about Iran’s development of missiles that could strike Europe or the US are not entirely parochial.”
The report went on to say the nature of the missiles Iran has developed pose much of a threat than earlier models. “Iran has made it a priority to develop highly accurate missiles, thus increasing their utility in combat. Iran’s missile programme can therefore no longer be seen purely as a deterrent, but as part of an effective battlefield capability,” it said. “The combination of improving missile capabilities and a demonstrable willingness to threaten to use and indeed to use them has implications for crisis stability. Iran’s qualitative and quantitative improvements have ”
It is the region nearest to Iran that the fallout from Iran's ability to defy UN resolutions on missile research and development is already keenly felt. “Iran’s well-documented proliferation of ballistic-missile, cruise-missile and [drone] technologies to [militias] in the Middle East has seriously undermined security and destabilised the region, further fuelling an arms race,” it said.
Having carried out the research with funding from the UK government, IISS suggests there were two potential goals of a diplomatic initiative to address the missile programme.
“The first would be to effectively cap the ranges of Iran’s missiles to prevent the country from developing ranges that could reach Western Europe or the United States,” it said. “European and American officials are most interested in this option, not necessarily because they believe Iran would ever target their territories, but because of the likelihood that such a missile would carry a nuclear, rather than a conventional, warhead.
“Secondly, because Iran is the only country in the region known to be transferring missiles and missile technology to non-state actors, limits on such transfers would seem to be an attractive option to pursue in the unilateral context.
“Indeed, even if the limits only applied to Iranian transfers to one group, perhaps Ansarullah in Yemen, the security benefit to not only the Arab Gulf countries, but also those western countries with forces stationed around the Gulf, would be substantial.”
