Scrapping the top-level post of minister for the Middle East and North Africa will leave the UK Foreign Office “stretched thin” and limit Britain’s global influence, a leading think tank has said.
Britain last month abolished the high-profile role of handling relations with the region after a government reshuffle led to Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office responsibilities divided.
“To abandon the region at a time of rising geopolitical instability would be a huge mistake,” Chatham House research fellow David Lawrence said.
“While the headlines might be made by China, the US and Russia, the Middle East will remain of critical importance.”
Formerly held by James Cleverly, the Mena role is now shared between three ministers after he was given the Europe portfolio.
While Mr Cleverly retained responsibility for Iran, another Conservative politician, Amanda Milling, added the Middle East to her Asia portfolio and Lord Ahmad took on North African responsibilities in his post.
With the pressing and, most likely, protracted war in Ukraine to contend with and the increasing power of China to oversee, Mr Cleverly and Ms Milling are unlikely to have time to focus on the Middle East, Mr Lawrence said. But “abandoning” the region at a time of great instability would be a “huge mistake” for several critical reasons, he said.
Nuclear talks with Iran
With diplomats entering the final stretch of negotiations to restore Iran’s compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action after the US pulled out of the deal in 2018, Mr Lawrence said “downgrading official attention on the region” could lead to Middle East partners feeling snubbed by the sense that the UK does not take “their concerns seriously”.
“Reaching a peaceful and sustainable outcome will require extraordinary tact and long-term commitment,” Mr Lawrence said. The 2015 nuclear deal negotiations were reason enough to remain active in the region, he said.
But he said there are other important motives for doing so, such as climate change and natural resources.
Climate change and oil
The next two Cop climate conferences will be held in the region: Sharm El Sheikh this year and the UAE in 2023.
After the UK’s hosting of Cop26 at Glasgow last year, Britain continues its presidency of UN climate change negotiations until November next year when the Egyptian government takes over.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created new strains on global energy supply chains that are likely to stall many of the hoped-for advancements in combating climate change while intensifying the search for sustainable alternative energy sources.
With a raft of sanctions already imposed on Russia and discussions on whether to ban its energy imports gaining traction, the next few years are likely to see the return of “oil geopolitics” as prices soar, making the need to engage with the Middle East, particularly Opec+ countries, even more pressing.
Development politics
The “battle of ideas” between the West and autocratic regimes is another crucial cause for concern in the Middle East and North Africa, Mr Lawrence said. He described the region as a “key site” for competing spheres of influence.
The UK has been slashing is development budget, cutting £90 million of specialist work on conflict prevention to the region, 50 per cent of funding for work protecting children from landmines, including in Syria and Lebanon, and the Syrian refugee and aid programmes, moves which place the region in danger of "falling to the interests of non-Western rivals”, Mr Lawrence said.
Displacement is an enduring difficulty which has and will continue to affect European countries. The conflict in Ukraine has ushered in one of the fastest-growing flows of people since the Second World War but conflicts and instability continue to drive people from countries like Iraq, Syria and Sudan, and that outflow would need to be managed as well.
“The Middle East remains at the heart of global affairs. Its continued importance for supply chains, geopolitics and the battle of ideas is undeniable," Mr Lawrence said. "While the UK’s pivot towards new foreign policy challenges is understandable, a long-term retreat from the region is risky for ‘Global Britain’, and for the world.”
