Boris Johnson looks increasingly likely to face a vote of no confidence in his UK leadership this week as he tries to shore up his authority with new appointments.
The number of MPs submitting letters is understood to be between 35 and 45, approaching the 54 required to trigger a poll on his leadership.
The British Prime Minister's authority was further undermined on Sunday when a senior Conservative and ally of Mr Johnson said it was “inevitable” his own MPs would remove him from office over the scandal of a string of Downing Street lockdown parties. Sir Charles Walker also said it would be in the national interest if Mr Johnson simply stepped down after the resignation of five key Downing Street advisers last week.
The turmoil gripping No 10 has yet to subside as Mr Johnson on Saturday made the appointments of an ardent Brexiteer, Steve Barclay, as chief of staff and a Remainer, Guto Harri, as director of communications.
Making an MP chief of staff is an unusual move and suggests Mr Johnson was struggling to find someone to fill a position that might prove short-lived. However, Mr Barclay’s Brexit credentials will appeal to MPs who fear that the prime minister had become surrounded with advisers who were Remainers or too left wing.
Aside from his previous anti-Brexit stance, appointing Mr Harri, 55, makes sense in that he worked closely with the prime minister when he was head of communications during Mr Johnson’s tenure as mayor of London.
However, Mr Harri, a fluent Welsh speaker, has at times been critical of Mr Johnson, suggesting in 2018 that he would be a “hugely divisive” prime minister.
But Mr Johnson’s aides were relieved there were no further damaging revelations this weekend after a suggestion that a picture of the prime minister holding a beer can at a lockdown party would be published.
However, a new damaging biography has been serialised on his wife Carrie that suggests she have over-exerted her influence on Downing Street operations.
Some reports say Mrs Johnson has been worn down by the pressures of the Partygate scandal – that could lead to her answering police questions over allegations of parties she hosted in the Downing Street flat – and has suggested to her husband that he quits.
Mr Johnson did receive support on Sunday from an unexpected quarter after former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith said he was against a confidence vote and that leadership contenders should “temper” their ambition.
“I’m not particularly in favour of plunging us now into a mess of votes of confidence, followed by leadership elections,” he told the BBC.
However, that could become inevitable as early as this week with Whitehall sources indicating that the 54-letter threshold to the 1922 Committee could soon be reached.
As Sir Graeme Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, keeps the letters strictly confidential it is difficult to predict the exact numbers, with only 13 MPs openly stating they had submitted them.
In Westminster circles, the numbers have varied wildly from “two dozen” to nearly 50.
If a confidence vote is triggered, then all 359 Tory MPs will vote on whether Mr Johnson should remain as leader with a simple majority of 180 required for him to remain as prime minister. If that happens, then no leadership contest can be held for another 12 months.
More MPs will reportedly go public with their letters this week, potentially building momentum for a vote.
Mr Johnson’s team hope to reach Thursday, when Parliament breaks for a 10-day recess, to regroup and begin to draw both MPs and the public’s attention away from a disastrous three months in government.
There are more pitfalls ahead, however. The Johnsons have yet to be interviewed by the Metropolitan Police over the Downing Street lockdown parties. If that results in a £100 fixed penalty fine for the prime minister, his authority might become fatally undermined.
He then faces full publication of the Sue Gray report which will provide far more detail on the breaches than the summary published on Monday last week.
In April the new 1.25 per cent National Insurance tax rise will arrive, along with higher energy bills plus inflation possibly hitting 7 per cent. Local elections will take place on May 5 with the Conservatives facing a potential disaster in losing control of scores of local councils.
Mr Johnson may well limp on until May but by then his position could have become so intolerable that the Conservative Party will revert to a more traditional defenestration method.
Previous prime ministers – Margaret Thatcher included – have received a delegation of senior party figures – referred to as “men in a grey suits” – informing them that it’s time to go.
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Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
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Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
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Notable salonnières of the Middle East through history
Al Khasan (Okaz, Saudi Arabia)
Tamadir bint Amr Al Harith, known simply as Al Khasan, was a poet from Najd famed for elegies, earning great renown for the eulogy of her brothers Mu’awiyah and Sakhr, both killed in tribal wars. Although not a salonnière, this prestigious 7th century poet fostered a culture of literary criticism and could be found standing in the souq of Okaz and reciting her poetry, publicly pronouncing her views and inviting others to join in the debate on scholarship. She later converted to Islam.
Maryana Marrash (Aleppo)
A poet and writer, Marrash helped revive the tradition of the salon and was an active part of the Nadha movement, or Arab Renaissance. Born to an established family in Aleppo in Ottoman Syria in 1848, Marrash was educated at missionary schools in Aleppo and Beirut at a time when many women did not receive an education. After touring Europe, she began to host salons where writers played chess and cards, competed in the art of poetry, and discussed literature and politics. An accomplished singer and canon player, music and dancing were a part of these evenings.
Princess Nazil Fadil (Cairo)
Princess Nazil Fadil gathered religious, literary and political elite together at her Cairo palace, although she stopped short of inviting women. The princess, a niece of Khedive Ismail, believed that Egypt’s situation could only be solved through education and she donated her own property to help fund the first modern Egyptian University in Cairo.
Mayy Ziyadah (Cairo)
Ziyadah was the first to entertain both men and women at her Cairo salon, founded in 1913. The writer, poet, public speaker and critic, her writing explored language, religious identity, language, nationalism and hierarchy. Born in Nazareth, Palestine, to a Lebanese father and Palestinian mother, her salon was open to different social classes and earned comparisons with souq of where Al Khansa herself once recited.
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
Where to apply
Applicants should send their completed applications - CV, covering letter, sample(s) of your work, letter of recommendation - to Nick March, Assistant Editor in Chief at The National and UAE programme administrator for the Rosalynn Carter Fellowships for Mental Health Journalism, by 5pm on April 30, 2020.
Please send applications to nmarch@thenational.ae and please mark the subject line as “Rosalynn Carter Fellowship for Mental Health Journalism (UAE programme application)”.
The local advisory board will consider all applications and will interview a short list of candidates in Abu Dhabi in June 2020. Successful candidates will be informed before July 30, 2020.
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French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
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