A British intelligence expert has said it is impossible to see how Russia’s President Putin will back away from an invasion of Ukraine given his maximalist demands which are impossible for the West to meet.
Sir Alex Younger, a former soldier who led the UK’s secret intelligence service MI6 from 2014 to 2020, spoke of the increasing likelihood of an all-out war between Russian troops and Ukrainians in the former Soviet nation.
He said Mr Putin has effectively dug himself into a trench which makes de-escalating impossible to imagine and said Western leaders “mustn’t underestimate how serious he is”.
“Given the maximal nature of his demands, given that he’s rejected the only reasonable compromise, it’s hard for me to see how he can avoid having to follow through to some extent,” Mr Younger told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“And at that point you unleash the law of unintended consequences, so it does worry me.
“I, at the moment, cannot see a scenario where he can back down in a way that satisfies the expectations that he has created.”
However, Mr Younger stressed this was not “automatic” and said Mr Putin “may not yet have decided what he’s going to do”.
He said Russia's president was playing a brutal game of making demands on the West that he knows it cannot deliver.
As fears of a Russian invasion increase, the Kremlin has given Nato a list of demands it says are necessary to tone down the crisis.
Mr Putin begrudges what he sees as the military alliance’s expansion eastward and has demanded Nato’s presence be reduced in countries that joined the transatlantic treaty post-1997. These include Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
He also wants a guarantee that Ukraine will never be allowed to join the alliance.
Mr Younger said the situation was “clearly getting more dangerous” and it has become difficult to see how Russia can back down.
Britain and its allies would be faced with a critical decision if Russia sends its troops over the boundary.
Mr Younger said from his time leading MI6 he had learnt that “if you want to beat the Russians you shouldn’t be the Russians”.
He said the UK needed to double down on measures that “make us strong”, namely strengthening its alliances and spreading the truth about Russia’s actions.
He said there is an information war that needs to be fought, which involves “various covert organs of the Russian state” who have been pushing false narratives aimed at painting Ukraine as an aggressor or an illegitimate nation.
Last week talks between Washington and Moscow on Ukraine failed to achieve a breakthrough.
The talks in Geneva were held after Russia moved troops into Belarus for joint drills.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday joined US President Joe Biden and other world leaders for a virtual meeting to discuss the escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine.
The leaders of Nato, the EU, Italy, Poland, France and Germany attended the summit as they hoped to avert what Mr Johnson said would be a bloody and protracted conflict for Moscow.
The prime minister said an invasion of Ukrainian territory by Russian soldiers could lead to the region becoming the “new Chechnya”.
He warned Mr Putin, who in 2014 led a Russian annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, that a fresh invasion would be a disaster.
“The intelligence is very clear that there are 60 Russian battle groups on the borders of Ukraine, the plan for a lightning war that could take out Kiev is one that everybody can see,” Mr Johnson said.
“We need to make it very clear to the Kremlin, to Russia, that that would be a disastrous step.”
The prime minister said the people of Ukraine would resist any invasion and “from a Russian perspective [it] is going to be a painful, violent and bloody business”, he said.
“I think it’s very important that people in Russia understand that this could be a new Chechnya.”
Earlier on Monday, Mr Johnson said in an interview that “gloomy” intelligence suggested Russia was planning a lightning raid on Kiev, as British staff and their families began leaving the Ukrainian capital.
The Pentagon has placed 8,500 US troops on heightened alert, preparing them for a potential deployment to reassure Nato allies amid rising tensions.
Britain's Foreign Secretary Liz Truss last week urged the UK's allies to reduce their economic dependence on Russia.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
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Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
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Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
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Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
UAE SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Adel Al Hosani
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Forwards: Fabio De Lima, Caio Canedo, Ali Saleh, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
Hunger and Fury: The Crisis of Democracy in the Balkans
Jasmin Mujanović, Hurst Publishers
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Results
2.30pm Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m
Winner Lamia, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
3pm Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m
Winner Jap Al Afreet, Elione Chaves, Irfan Ellahi.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
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• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
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Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
More on animal trafficking
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
More on animal trafficking
Best Foreign Language Film nominees
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Zayed Sustainability Prize
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The bio:
Favourite film:
Declan: It was The Commitments but now it’s Bohemian Rhapsody.
Heidi: The Long Kiss Goodnight.
Favourite holiday destination:
Declan: Las Vegas but I also love getting home to Ireland and seeing everyone back home.
Heidi: Australia but my dream destination would be to go to Cuba.
Favourite pastime:
Declan: I love brunching and socializing. Just basically having the craic.
Heidi: Paddleboarding and swimming.
Personal motto:
Declan: Take chances.
Heidi: Live, love, laugh and have no regrets.
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last 16, first leg
Tottenham Hotspur v Borussia Dortmund, midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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