Boris Johnson: What happens next in Partygate investigation?


Neil Murphy
  • English
  • Arabic

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s grasp on power appears weaker by the day as allegations of illegal gatherings during England’s first coronavirus lockdown continue to undermine his authority.

The latest news reports suggest a birthday party with up to 30 guests was held in his honour in June 2020.

Public anger in Britain over the so-called “Partygate” has not abated, and Mr Johnson’s chances of emerging from the crisis as leader remain slim.

So what will the endgame look like, and what in which scenarios, if any, could the prime minister survive?

Sue Gray report could find damning evidence

Sue Gray, the senior civil servant leading the Cabinet Office inquiry into Partygate, is looking into several rule-breaking gatherings, including boozy leaving bashes and garden parties in May 2020 said to have been held at the height of England’s first lockdown.

The Prime Minister is said to have “shared what he knows” with Ms Gray but has denied any wrongdoing, and said he “implicitly” believed the gatherings were “work events”.

It was initially believed Ms Gray would need to wait for the outcome of a police investigation before making her findings public, delaying their release by weeks or months.

But Scotland Yard has said it will not block Partygate report’s early publication, plunging Mr Johnson into deeper jeopardy.

Police investigation could result in criminal charges

On Tuesday, London’s Metropolitan Police confirmed they had launched a criminal investigation into lockdown breaches in Number 10, after weeks of refusing to do so.

They were forced to act after Ms Gray’s team handed details of its internal inquiry to the force – no doubt a troubling sign for the prime minister's team.

Met Police chief Dame Cressida Dick has declined to say which allegations were being investigated and would not put a timeline on when officers’ findings would be made public.

The Prime Minister has told MPs it is “right” for officers to investigate and that he believes it will “help to draw a line under matters”.

If evidence of significant rule-breaking at Downing Street is uncovered and charges are brought, it seems highly likely that the prime minister’s position will become untenable.

Tory Party’s 1922 Committee forces his resignation

The Conservatives are no stranger to turning on their own and biggest threat to the Prime Minister’s leadership remains his own MPs.

The 1922 Committee, the Conservatives’ group in the House of Commons – has the ability to trigger a leadership vote if 15 per cent of MPs say they have lost faith in Mr Johnson.

It effectively removed Theresa May after Brexit negotiations caused her authority to ebb away.

As it stands, 54 Tory Party MPs must hand in no confidence letters voicing their dissatisfaction at Mr Johnson’s job to trigger such an election.

If he falls foul of the vote, the Prime Minister could be compelled to step down as prime minister as a new leadership vote is launched.

Boris Johnson resigns on his own accord

Calls for the Prime Minister to quit are already growing. Last week, former Tory Party chairman David Davis said that Mr Johnson should "in the name of God, go".

Mr Johnson may be feeling that he has no choice but to resign before the investigations into his conduct reach their conclusion.

But he is known for his pugilistic streak and is considered unlikely to jump before he is pushed.

Boris Johnson stays on

Mr Johnson’s only real hope is that he is cleared of wrong doing which will see public anger subside. Other geopolitical events, such as a Russian invasion of Ukraine, would also help him stay in office as the nation’s attention turns to pressing security matters.

The next UK election is due to take place in May 2024, thought the date is subject to change.

But with his party’s and his popularity languishing in the polls, it seems unlikely he will be able to cling on without an astounding turnaround in fortunes.

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Key findings of Jenkins report
  • Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
  • Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
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Friday
Real Sociedad v Villarreal (10.15pm)
Real Betis v Celta Vigo (midnight)
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Girona v Malaga (10.15pm)
Las Palmas v Atletico Madrid (12.15am)
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Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

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Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
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Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

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What sanctions would be reimposed?

Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:

  • An arms embargo
  • A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
  • A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
  • A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
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AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street

The seven points are:

Shakhbout bin Sultan Street

Dhafeer Street

Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)

Salama bint Butti Street

Al Dhafra Street

Rabdan Street

Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)

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Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

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Pharaoh's curse

British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
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Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.

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Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu

Director: Hansal Mehta

Rating: 4 / 5

Updated: January 25, 2022, 5:16 PM`