Vienna has a long history of intrigue and diplomacy so when Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran's new nuclear negotiator, takes his place at a table with European counterparts on Monday it will be the latest leap in the dark at talks hosted in the city.
For start the man from Tehran won't get to break the ice with his most important interlocuter in the city. That is Rob Malley, the US envoy, who instead will remain in another hotel while mediators are expected shuttle between the two. Iran refuses to meet the US directly as long as America is maintaining, in the Iranian view, “unlawful and inhuman sanctions”.
The uncertainties hanging over the talks are manifold, not just at the personal level. The best that can be hoped for from negotiations is a “JCPOA minus”, experts told The National, referring to the deal struck in 2015 that stopped Iran’s uranium enrichment programme.
Six months have passed since the last round of Vienna talks to revive the agreement, which was thrown into disarray when Donald Trump arbitrarily pulled the US out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018.
It was hoped in June that a snap deal resurrecting the 2015 agreement could be struck with the new US administration under President Joe Biden.
But with the newly elected, hardline Ebrahim Raisi about to assume power as President of Iran, a delay was inevitable. During the hiatus, Iran’s economy has worsened, Covid-19 continues to spread and Afghanistan has fallen to the Taliban with millions of refugees threatening to descend on Iran.
Optimism for agreement is low while the threat is high. If Iran went all-out, it could produce enough uranium for a bomb within a month, experts say.
Hence, expectations in Vienna are muted. Just being in a room – or the same city – and talking is seen as progress.
“Since the last round of negotiations, all sides are projecting a lot of negativity, because of the lack of contact and the posturing that has taken place in the media,” said Dr Sanam Vakil, an Iran specialist at the Chatham House think tank. “If there is an expectation, it is a negative one.”
Iran claims to have produced about 25 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity. While this is some distance from the 90 per cent needed for weapons, it is close enough to close the gap in a matter of months should Iran choose. The Iranians also continue to ban nuclear inspectors from its laboratories, adding to the pressure it wants to build to enhance its bargaining position.
With no sign of a quick return to nuclear deal, America has floated the idea of a “freeze for freeze” proposal in which Iran stops nuclear advancements in an exchange for the US halting further sanctions.
A slight improvement on that would be for Iran to agree on rolling back certain aspects of its nuclear programme in exchange for some sanctions relief. At least, says Dr Vakil, that would “buy people some breathing space”, even if it was only a “Band-Aid” on the 2015 agreement.
A potential improvement would be the “JCPOA minus” outcome suggested by Prof Michael Clarke, of the Rusi think tank in London. “It could be a ‘JCPOA minus’ that is quite a bit less than the original JCPOA with an agreement to keep talking with some sanctions still in place but the nuclear programme halted before a wider agreement is struck in a few years’ time,” he told The National.
An interim deal would at least buy time and potentially hold off a mass Israeli attack which would jeopardise the entire region’s stability.
For Mr Malley to get into the same hotel as Mr Kani, Washington has to accede to three Iranian demands. The US must admit culpability in withdrawing from JCPOA, sanctions must be lifted immediately and a cast-iron guarantee of no future withdrawals is necessary.
That final demand is crucial to the Iranians, who fear that the return of a US president such as Mr Trump and the “maximum pressure” sanction programme would derail their fragile economy once again.
Sanctions have clearly hurt Iran, which might make the regime more emollient than their belligerent language suggests, Prof Clarke said.
“The Iranian leadership need a deal because their economic situation is so bad that they need to show that hardliners can actually deliver for the economy and for that they need sanctions lifted," he said. "But they don't want to look as if they're anxious for it. Biden also needs a deal to show that his approach is better than Trump's. But he's probably under slightly less pressure than the Iranians.”
He suggested that Mr Trump’s policy of maximum pressure might actually have worked to the benefit of Mr Biden. “The Iranians are worried about a pressure cooker building among the people, particular the unemployed youth, which will make it very hard for them to deliver on the continuance of the Iranian Revolution.”
Furthermore, without sanctions the regime can cash in on the current windfall of increasing oil prices and precious foreign currency.
While Iran might be close to achieving sufficient fissile material for a bomb, it still has to develop a nuclear warhead and a missile to deliver it.
Israeli intelligence estimates that this could take two years, although Tehran might be developing a nuclear missile programme covertly.
“We don't know how advanced the secret warhead programme is but they’ve certainly been testing the missiles,” said Jeremy Binnie, an Iran missile expert for Jane's Defence Weekly. “The thinking is that any missile might not be fully ready yet as they've had some problems which will make mass production an issue.”
He said the Israelis would certainly look to attack any Iranian nuclear warhead site, “when they decide the time to strike would be, once they assess Iran’s capabilities”.
Therefore, what happens if the Vienna talks come to nought? That’s when Plan B is introduced and it could be an Israeli bunker-busting attack or the censure of Iran by the UN Security Council for blocking nuclear inspectors. With greater European Union and US alignment on pressuring Iran, Brussels could introduce harsh sanctions, making life even harder for Tehran.
And there is always the US military option. “That would be a risky gambit and one that could lead to a broader regional conflict and cost many regional states more than they're willing to expend,” said Dr Vakil.
She suggests that the best-case scenario from the talks is that Iran picks up from the progress made in June without “reviving ancient history”, which could then “build a bit of confidence” on all sides.
The more time it takes to strike a deal, the longer Iran has to develop its nuclear programme. With that comes the risk of a nuclear-equipped Iran changing the Middle East’s geopolitical compass and the threat of a war. Certainly, nuclear-armed Israel and most likely America will not stand back from military action.
“If diplomacy fails, we have other tools — and we will use other tools to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” Mr Malley warned Tehran in a recent speech.
The stakes remain high. But at least — and at last — the serious talking has started.
Company profile
Name: Back to Games and Boardgame Space
Started: Back to Games (2015); Boardgame Space (Mark Azzam became co-founder in 2017)
Founder: Back to Games (Mr Azzam); Boardgame Space (Mr Azzam and Feras Al Bastaki)
Based: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Industry: Back to Games (retail); Boardgame Space (wholesale and distribution)
Funding: Back to Games: self-funded by Mr Azzam with Dh1.3 million; Mr Azzam invested Dh250,000 in Boardgame Space
Growth: Back to Games: from 300 products in 2015 to 7,000 in 2019; Boardgame Space: from 34 games in 2017 to 3,500 in 2019
more from Janine di Giovanni
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
BOSH!'s pantry essentials
Nutritional yeast
This is Firth's pick and an ingredient he says, "gives you an instant cheesy flavour". He advises making your own cream cheese with it or simply using it to whip up a mac and cheese or wholesome lasagne. It's available in organic and specialist grocery stores across the UAE.
Seeds
"We've got a big jar of mixed seeds in our kitchen," Theasby explains. "That's what you use to make a bolognese or pie or salad: just grab a handful of seeds and sprinkle them over the top. It's a really good way to make sure you're getting your omegas."
Umami flavours
"I could say soya sauce, but I'll say all umami-makers and have them in the same batch," says Firth. He suggests having items such as Marmite, balsamic vinegar and other general, dark, umami-tasting products in your cupboard "to make your bolognese a little bit more 'umptious'".
Onions and garlic
"If you've got them, you can cook basically anything from that base," says Theasby. "These ingredients are so prevalent in every world cuisine and if you've got them in your cupboard, then you know you've got the foundation of a really nice meal."
Your grain of choice
Whether rice, quinoa, pasta or buckwheat, Firth advises always having a stock of your favourite grains in the cupboard. "That you, you have an instant meal and all you have to do is just chuck a bit of veg in."
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
Young women have more “financial grit”, but fall behind on investing
In an October survey of young adults aged 16 to 25, Charles Schwab found young women are more driven to reach financial independence than young men (67 per cent versus. 58 per cent). They are more likely to take on extra work to make ends meet and see more value than men in creating a plan to achieve their financial goals. Yet, despite all these good ‘first’ measures, they are investing and saving less than young men – falling early into the financial gender gap.
While the women surveyed report spending 36 per cent less than men, they have far less savings than men ($1,267 versus $2,000) – a nearly 60 per cent difference.
In addition, twice as many young men as women say they would invest spare cash, and almost twice as many young men as women report having investment accounts (though most young adults do not invest at all).
“Despite their good intentions, young women start to fall behind their male counterparts in savings and investing early on in life,” said Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz, senior vice president, Charles Schwab. “They start off showing a strong financial planning mindset, but there is still room for further education when it comes to managing their day-to-day finances.”
Ms Schwab-Pomerantz says parents should be conveying the same messages to boys and girls about money, but should tailor those conversations based on the individual and gender.
"Our study shows that while boys are spending more than girls, they also are saving more. Have open and honest conversations with your daughters about the wage and savings gap," she said. "Teach kids about the importance of investing – especially girls, who as we see in this study, aren’t investing as much. Part of being financially prepared is learning to make the most of your money, and that means investing early and consistently."
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
The full list of 2020 Brit Award nominees (winners in bold):
British group
Coldplay
Foals
Bring me the Horizon
D-Block Europe
Bastille
British Female
Mabel
Freya Ridings
FKA Twigs
Charli xcx
Mahalia
British male
Harry Styles
Lewis Capaldi
Dave
Michael Kiwanuka
Stormzy
Best new artist
Aitch
Lewis Capaldi
Dave
Mabel
Sam Fender
Best song
Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber - I Don’t Care
Mabel - Don’t Call Me Up
Calvin Harrison and Rag’n’Bone Man - Giant
Dave - Location
Mark Ronson feat. Miley Cyrus - Nothing Breaks Like A Heart
AJ Tracey - Ladbroke Grove
Lewis Capaldi - Someone you Loved
Tom Walker - Just You and I
Sam Smith and Normani - Dancing with a Stranger
Stormzy - Vossi Bop
International female
Ariana Grande
Billie Eilish
Camila Cabello
Lana Del Rey
Lizzo
International male
Bruce Springsteen
Burna Boy
Tyler, The Creator
Dermot Kennedy
Post Malone
Best album
Stormzy - Heavy is the Head
Michael Kiwanuka - Kiwanuka
Lewis Capaldi - Divinely Uninspired to a Hellish Extent
Dave - Psychodrama
Harry Styles - Fine Line
Rising star
Celeste
Joy Crookes
beabadoobee
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Match info
What: Fifa Club World Cup play-off
Who: Al Ain v Team Wellington
Where: Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
When: Wednesday, kick off 7.30pm
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
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F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Dr Amal Khalid Alias revealed a recent case of a woman with daughters, who specifically wanted a boy.
A semen analysis of the father showed abnormal sperm so the couple required IVF.
Out of 21 eggs collected, six were unused leaving 15 suitable for IVF.
A specific procedure was used, called intracytoplasmic sperm injection where a single sperm cell is inserted into the egg.
On day three of the process, 14 embryos were biopsied for gender selection.
The next day, a pre-implantation genetic report revealed four normal male embryos, three female and seven abnormal samples.
Day five of the treatment saw two male embryos transferred to the patient.
The woman recorded a positive pregnancy test two weeks later.
Types of bank fraud
1) Phishing
Fraudsters send an unsolicited email that appears to be from a financial institution or online retailer. The hoax email requests that you provide sensitive information, often by clicking on to a link leading to a fake website.
2) Smishing
The SMS equivalent of phishing. Fraudsters falsify the telephone number through “text spoofing,” so that it appears to be a genuine text from the bank.
3) Vishing
The telephone equivalent of phishing and smishing. Fraudsters may pose as bank staff, police or government officials. They may persuade the consumer to transfer money or divulge personal information.
4) SIM swap
Fraudsters duplicate the SIM of your mobile number without your knowledge or authorisation, allowing them to conduct financial transactions with your bank.
5) Identity theft
Someone illegally obtains your confidential information, through various ways, such as theft of your wallet, bank and utility bill statements, computer intrusion and social networks.
6) Prize scams
Fraudsters claiming to be authorised representatives from well-known organisations (such as Etisalat, du, Dubai Shopping Festival, Expo2020, Lulu Hypermarket etc) contact victims to tell them they have won a cash prize and request them to share confidential banking details to transfer the prize money.
The years Ramadan fell in May
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