UK ministers were warned that coronavirus cases could rise to more than a million per week before they lifted most of England’s restrictions.
Modellers made the gloomy suggestion in a paper on July 14, in which they said restrictions might have to return if cases did not level off.
The revelation came amid uncertainty over the current state of the outbreak in Britain, with the daily tally of cases falling but other data suggesting they are still rising.
A spell of warm weather, the end of football’s Euro 2020 championships and a reluctance among some people to get tested and face isolation have all been suggested as reasons for the apparent drop.
Scientists say it is too early to assess the impact of the unlocking in England on July 19, when masks became voluntary and limits on socialising were lifted.
The UK's devolved governments have their own health policies.
Ministers pressed ahead with the reopening despite the warning from modellers that a surge in cases could follow.
“If incidence reaches very high levels, such as greater than one million infections per week, there could be implications for workforces and critical infrastructure,” scientists on modelling advisory panel the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group said.
“If growth in incidence does not show signs of starting to plateau at expected levels … then stringent measures may be required to reverse growth.”
The most cases recorded in a single week were the 417,620 new infections added to the tally in one seven-day period in January.
In their statement of concerns, which was made public on Friday, the modellers expressed fears that September and October would be a “particularly risky point” in the trajectory of the pandemic.
We are seeing chaotic datasets that reflect a lot of different things happening at the same time
Dr Simon Clarke
This is because schools and universities will return and other seasonal infections could increase in prevalence, complicating the picture with Covid-19.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson argued when restrictions were lifted that it was better for a third wave to come in summer rather than autumn.
A record 689,313 people were told to isolate by the UK National Health Service’s contact-tracing app in the week to July 21.
There have been reports of people deleting the app to avoid being told to isolate, and scientists suspect that some people are not getting tested for the same reason.
Daily case numbers “depend on how many people turn up to be tested, and on why people are being tested”, said Prof Kevin McConway, a statistics expert at the Open University.
“The concerns about people being ‘pinged’ by the NHS Covid-19 app and having to self-isolate could be deterring some people from coming forward to be tested.”
'Chaotic' data
The seven-day average of new cases in Britain fell to 28,272 on Friday, a drop of 36 per cent in a week.
But the latest results from an infection survey by the Office of National Statistics showed cases in England continuing to rise.
The ONS survey is seen as reliable because it randomly samples the population, but it typically lags behind the government’s daily numbers.
“Overall, we are seeing chaotic datasets that reflect a lot of different things happening at the same time,” said Dr Simon Clarke, a microbiologist at the University of Reading.
Amid widespread chaos caused by the numbers of people isolating, key workers who are fully vaccinated have been exempted from isolation when alerted by the app.
This exemption will be extended from August 16 to anyone who is fully vaccinated.
Vaccination could become a condition of entry to venues such as nightclubs and football grounds, once everyone has had a chance to get two doses.
The question of whether to introduce vaccine passports in domestic life has been a cause of division and protest across Europe in recent weeks.
UK Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said it would be a good idea for companies to require employees returning to the office to be fully vaccinated.
He said the government would not legislate to make this compulsory but predicted that some companies would make it a requirement.
The prospect of a “no jab, no job” policy led to a warning from the UK’s Equality and Human Rights Commission that it should not lead to discrimination.
“Employers are right to want to protect their staff and their customers, particularly in contexts where people are at risk, such as care homes,” it said.
“However, requirements must be proportionate, non-discriminatory and make provision for those who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons.”
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 2.9-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 540hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 600Nm at 2,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Kerb weight: 1580kg
Price: From Dh750k
On sale: via special order
SQUADS
UAE
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice-captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
Nepal
Paras Khadka (captain), Gyanendra Malla, Dipendra Singh Airee, Pradeep Airee, Binod Bhandari, Avinash Bohara, Sundeep Jora, Sompal Kami, Karan KC, Rohit Paudel, Sandeep Lamichhane, Lalit Rajbanshi, Basant Regmi, Pawan Sarraf, Bhim Sharki, Aarif Sheikh
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
Brief scores:
Toss: Australia, chose to bat
Australia: 272-9 (50 ov)
Khawaja 100, Handscomb 52; Bhuvneshwar 3-48
India: 237 (50 ov)
Rohit 56, Bhuvneshwar 46; Zampa 3-46
Player of the Match: Usman Khawaja (Australia)
Player of the Series: Usman Khawaja (Australia)
ODI FIXTURE SCHEDULE
First ODI, October 22
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Second ODI, October 25
Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune
Third ODI, October 29
Venue TBC
Dolittle
Director: Stephen Gaghan
Stars: Robert Downey Jr, Michael Sheen
One-and-a-half out of five stars
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Dubai World Cup nominations
UAE: Thunder Snow/Saeed bin Suroor (trainer), North America/Satish Seemar, Drafted/Doug Watson, New Trails/Ahmad bin Harmash, Capezzano, Gronkowski, Axelrod, all trained by Salem bin Ghadayer
USA: Seeking The Soul/Dallas Stewart, Imperial Hunt/Luis Carvajal Jr, Audible/Todd Pletcher, Roy H/Peter Miller, Yoshida/William Mott, Promises Fulfilled/Dale Romans, Gunnevera/Antonio Sano, XY Jet/Jorge Navarro, Pavel/Doug O’Neill, Switzerland/Steve Asmussen.
Japan: Matera Sky/Hideyuki Mori, KT Brace/Haruki Sugiyama. Bahrain: Nine Below Zero/Fawzi Nass. Ireland: Tato Key/David Marnane. Hong Kong: Fight Hero/Me Tsui. South Korea: Dolkong/Simon Foster.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The bio
Favourite book: Peter Rabbit. I used to read it to my three children and still read it myself. If I am feeling down it brings back good memories.
Best thing about your job: Getting to help people. My mum always told me never to pass up an opportunity to do a good deed.
Best part of life in the UAE: The weather. The constant sunshine is amazing and there is always something to do, you have so many options when it comes to how to spend your day.
Favourite holiday destination: Malaysia. I went there for my honeymoon and ended up volunteering to teach local children for a few hours each day. It is such a special place and I plan to retire there one day.
THE SPECS
2020 Toyota Corolla Hybrid LE
Engine: 1.8 litre combined with 16-volt electric motors
Transmission: Automatic with manual shifting mode
Power: 121hp
Torque: 142Nm
Price: Dh95,900
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Important questions to consider
1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?
There are different types of travel available for pets:
- Manifest cargo
- Excess luggage in the hold
- Excess luggage in the cabin
Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.
2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?
If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.
If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.
3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?
As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.
If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty.
If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport.
4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?
This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.
In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.
5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?
Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.
Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.
Source: Pawsome Pets UAE
Result
Crystal Palace 0 Manchester City 2
Man City: Jesus (39), David Silva (41)
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Four-day collections of TOH
Day Indian Rs (Dh)
Thursday 500.75 million (25.23m)
Friday 280.25m (14.12m)
Saturday 220.75m (11.21m)
Sunday 170.25m (8.58m)
Total 1.19bn (59.15m)
(Figures in millions, approximate)
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
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SCHEDULE FOR SHOW COURTS
Centre Court - from 4pm (UAE time)
Angelique Kerber (1) v Irina Falconi
Martin Klizan v Novak Djokovic (2)
Alexandr Dolgopolov v Roger Federer (3)
Court One - from 4pm
Milos Raonic (6) v Jan-Lennard Struff
Karolina Pliskova (3) v Evgeniya Rodina
Dominic Thiem (8) v Vasek Pospisil
Court Two - from 2.30pm
Juan Martin Del Potro (29) v Thanasi Kokkinakis
Agnieszka Radwanska (9) v Jelena Jankovic
Jeremy Chardy v Tomas Berdych (11)
Ons Jabeur v Svetlana Kuznetsova (7)
Brief scores:
Day 1
Toss: India, chose to bat
India (1st innings): 215-2 (89 ov)
Agarwal 76, Pujara 68 not out; Cummins 2-40
GROUPS
Group Gustavo Kuerten
Novak Djokovic (x1)
Alexander Zverev (x3)
Marin Cilic (x5)
John Isner (x8)
Group Lleyton Hewitt
Roger Federer (x2)
Kevin Anderson (x4)
Dominic Thiem (x6)
Kei Nishikori (x7)
Stage 3 results
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 4:42:33
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:03
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:30
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Diego Ulissi (ITA) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:56
General Classification after Stage 3:
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 12:30:02
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:07
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:35
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:40
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Wilco Kelderman (NED) Team Sunweb) 0:02:06
Predictions
Predicted winners for final round of games before play-offs:
- Friday: Delhi v Chennai - Chennai
- Saturday: Rajasthan v Bangalore - Bangalore
- Saturday: Hyderabad v Kolkata - Hyderabad
- Sunday: Delhi v Mumbai - Mumbai
- Sunday - Chennai v Punjab - Chennai
Final top-four (who will make play-offs): Chennai, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Bangalore
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