Alpha coronavirus spread in ‘super-seeding’ event in UK: Christmas travel

The rapid spread of the Alpha coronavirus was caused by mutations and was helped by large numbers of infected people "exporting" it to parts of the UK, in what a new study calls a "super-seeding" event.

Results in the journal Science map the spread of the variant from its origins in Kent and Greater London in November 2020 to all but five counties in Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and England by January 19.

"At the beginning of December 2020, the [centre] of Covid-19 transmission in England shifted rapidly from the north-west and north-east, to London and the south-east, as the Alpha variant took hold," said Dr Moritz Kraemer, lead author on the study.

"As people travelled from London and the south-east to other areas of the UK, they ‘seeded’ new transmission chains of the variant.

"This continued as a national ‘super-seeding’ event, which did not start to slow until early January.

"Although travel was curbed after restrictions were introduced on December 20, this was compensated for by the continued exponential growth in Alpha variant cases."

The rapid spread of the Alpha strain across the UK led to initial reports that it could be up to 80 per cent more transmissible than the original strain.

Although it is not specifically blamed by the researchers, the period covers the build up to Christmas when UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson at first promised festivities should be able to go ahead before clamping down as cases spiralled. Despite the plea, many people still returned to families around the country.

This study, published on Thursday by researchers at universities including Oxford, Northeastern and Edinburgh, shows travel significantly affected its spread and early growth rates.

The researchers say this highlights the need for epidemiologists to work closely and quickly with virologists and geneticists for more accurate transmissibility estimates for new variants.

"The Alpha variant does contain genetic changes that make it more transmissible," said Prof Oliver Pybus, lead researcher of the Oxford Martin Programme on Pandemic Genomics.

"It is likely the Alpha variant was 30 per cent to 40 per cent more transmissible than the initial strain.

"And the early estimates were higher because we did not know how much its growth was exacerbated by human mobility and by how many contacts different groups of people have.

"Crucially, as more variants emerge and spread in other countries worldwide, we must be careful to account for these phenomena when evaluating the intrinsic transmissibility of new variants."

Verity Hill, co-author and researcher from the University of Edinburgh, said the Alpha variant began by spreading mostly within London and the south-east, even during the November lockdown in England.

When the lockdown was lifted, the strain spread rapidly across the country, as human movement increased significantly, Dr Hill said.

Dr Kraemer said: "As new variants emerge, we expect they will spread significantly before travel restrictions are put in place, as probably happened with the Delta variant.

"Given the scale of its current outbreak, it seems probably that the UK is now an important exporter of the Delta variant across Europe and some other parts of the world.

"The UK has decided to ease its restrictions because of our high vaccination rates and a confidence that we have protected the most vulnerable people in society.

"But that is not the case in most other countries and the Delta variant could be starting this process again elsewhere, highlighting the urgent need for faster and equitable distribution of vaccines worldwide."

Neil Thomson – THE BIO

Family: I am happily married to my wife Liz and we have two children together.

Favourite music: Rock music. I started at a young age due to my father’s influence. He played in an Indian rock band The Flintstones who were once asked by Apple Records to fly over to England to perform there.

Favourite book: I constantly find myself reading The Bible.

Favourite film: The Greatest Showman.

Favourite holiday destination: I love visiting Melbourne as I have family there and it’s a wonderful place. New York at Christmas is also magical.

Favourite food: I went to boarding school so I like any cuisine really.

The Perfect Couple

Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor

Creator: Jenna Lamia

Rating: 3/5

if you go

The flights

Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.

The hotels

Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.

When to visit

March-May and September-November

Visas

Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.

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RACE CARD

6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 – Group 1 (PA) $65,000 (Dirt) 2,000m

7.05pm: Handicap (TB) $65,000 (Turf) 1,800m

7.40pm: Meydan Classic – Listed (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,600m

8.15pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy – Group 3 (TB) $195,000 (T) 2,810m

8.50pm: Dubai Millennium Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (T) 2,000m

9.25pm: Meydan Challenge – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,400m

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees

Director: Kaouther Ben Hania

Rating: 4/5

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The six points:

1. Ministers should be in the field, instead of always at conferences

2. Foreign diplomacy must be left to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation

3. Emiratisation is a top priority that will have a renewed push behind it

4. The UAE's economy must continue to thrive and grow

5. Complaints from the public must be addressed, not avoided

6. Have hope for the future, what is yet to come is bigger and better than before

COMPANY%20PROFILE

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NYBL PROFILE

Company name: Nybl

Date started: November 2018

Founder: Noor Alnahhas, Michael LeTan, Hafsa Yazdni, Sufyaan Abdul Haseeb, Waleed Rifaat, Mohammed Shono

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: Software Technology / Artificial Intelligence

Initial investment: $500,000

Funding round: Series B (raising $5m)

Partners/Incubators: Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 4, Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 6, AI Venture Labs Cohort 1, Microsoft Scale-up

Going grey? A stylist's advice

If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”

Match info

Uefa Nations League Group B:

England v Spain, Saturday, 11.45pm (UAE)

Pharaoh's curse

British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.