The rise of paramilitary far-right groups to a position of dominance in Western European countries is "not unthinkable", terrorism experts say.
A report by the Counter Extremism Project (CEP) think tank urges officials to be "concerned" about the risk of Western far-right extremists connecting with paramilitaries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).
Last year it was revealed German extremist Tobias Rathjen received training in Slovakia before he went on a shooting spree, killing 10 people.
The report, "Looks Can Be Deceiving: Extremism Meets Paramilitarism In Central And Eastern Europe", identifies two potential developments which it says should concern policymakers and security authorities.
The first is the risk of Western far-right extremists connecting with CEE paramilitaries and the second is the potential for them to make a "more concerted use of the sprawling paramilitary infrastructure in Ukraine."
“The possibility of a truly transnational and paramilitary extreme right-wing arch stretching from Moscow via CEE into the heart of Western Europe is not unthinkable”, it says.
“The activities of paramilitary organisations whose members share viewpoints with the broader Western European far right or its most aggressive and militant component, the extreme right-wing, and their access to commercial training should be of concern to officials in CEE.”
The report, written by CEP affiliated researcher Kacper Rekawek, examined case studies from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, and Ukraine, warns of the risk of paramilitary training camps and the lack of monitoring taking place.
It makes four recommendations, including advising Ukraine to collect information on foreigners seeking training and to look at restricting the travel of high-risk violent right-wing extremists to stop them accessing commercial training infrastructure.
"Western radicals who attempt to utilise this infrastructure for their purposes, such as the Hanau shooter, do not involve themselves in the intricacies of the regional extremism-paramilitarism axis", it said.
"They tend to obtain their training privately, potentially under false names, most likely skipping the scant security protocols that these privately-run training facilities employ.
"Therefore, two major security concerns arise for Western security authorities. The first is the potential connection between Western right-wing extremists with likeminded CEE paramilitaries.
"The second concern is the risk that Western right-wing extremists obtain paramilitary training through Ukrainian networks and training facilities. Although these Ukrainian training networks are currently more internally focused, their commercial orientation also allows for the training of foreigners.
"Consequently, the current situation can develop into a major security threat for Western security authorities."
The report also recommends that more analysis of the far right in CEE countries takes place and suggests exploring the Czech Republic’s existing legal arrangements barring paramilitary training for civilians as a potential blueprint for similar legal mechanisms.
Last year a report on extremism in the German security forces uncovered more than 350 suspected far-right cases between 2017 and 2020 that led to recent calls for a crackdown.
