WASHINGTON // They seem right out of a Hollywood fantasy, and they are: cars that drive themselves have appeared in movies like I, Robot and the television show Knight Rider.
Now, three years after Google invented one, automated cars could be on their way to a freeway near you. In the US, California and other states are rewriting the rules of the road to make way for driverless cars. Just one problem: what happens to the millions of people who make a living driving cars and lorries, jobs that always have seemed sheltered from the onslaught of technology?
"All those jobs are going to disappear in the next 25 years," says Moshe Vardi, a computer scientist at Rice University in Houston. "Driving by people will look quaint; it will look like a horse and buggy."
If automation can unseat bus drivers, urban deliverymen, long-haul truckers, even cabbies, is any job safe?
Mr Vardi poses an equally scary question: "Are we prepared for an economy in which 50 per cent of people are not working?"
An analysis of employment data from 20 countries found that millions of midskill, mid-pay jobs already have disappeared over the past five years, and they are the jobs that form the backbone of the middle class in developed countries.
That experience has left a growing number of technologists and economists wondering what lies ahead. Will middle-class jobs return when the global economy recovers, or are they lost forever because of the advance of technology? The answer may not be known for years, perhaps decades. Experts argue among themselves whether the job market will recover, muddle along or get much worse.
To understand their arguments, it helps to understand the past.
Every time a transformative invention took hold over the past two centuries, whether it was the steamboat in the 1820s or the locomotive in the 1850s or the telegraph or the telephone, businesses would disappear and workers would lose jobs. But new businesses would emerge that employed even more.
"What has always been true is that technology has destroyed jobs but also always created jobs," says the Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University. "You know the old story we tell about [how] the car destroyed blacksmiths and created the auto industry."
But the astounding capabilities of computer technology are forcing some mainstream economists to rethink the conventional wisdom about the economic benefits of technology. For the first time, we are seeing machines that can think or something close to it.
Computers most easily target jobs that involve routines, whatever skill level they require. And the most vulnerable of these jobs, economists have found, tend to employ midskill workers, even those held by people with college degrees. They are the very jobs that support a middle-class, consumer economy.
So the rise of computer technology poses a threat that previous generations of machines did not: the old machines replaced human brawn but created jobs that required human brains. The new machines threaten both.
"Technological change is more encompassing and moving faster and making it harder and harder to find things that people have a comparative advantage in" versus machines, says David Autor, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has studied the loss of mid-pay jobs to technology.
Here are the three scenarios that economists and technologists offer about jobs in the future.
Eventually, a healthy market
It has always happened before. Europe and the US endured repeated economic and social upheaval during the 19th and early 20th centuries as their agricultural economies transformed into industrial ones. Columbia's Mr Stiglitz argues that such pressures led to the collapse of the world economy in 1929 the cataclysm Americans call the Great Depression.
The mechanisation of farming caused agricultural production to soar worldwide in the 1920s and prices to plunge. In the US, crop and livestock prices fell by 50 per cent between 1929 and 1932. American farmers, who accounted for a fifth of the US workforce, lost purchasing power and also struggled to pay their mortgages and other loans. As their debts went bad, banks began to collapse, squeezing credit and spreading panic. The economy went into free-fall.
Only the Second World War and the massive rearmament programme it required restored the US economy to full health. The experience was traumatising. And today only 2 per cent of Americans work on farms.
Peter Lindert, an economist at the University of California-Davis, says computers are more disruptive than earlier innovations because they are "general-purpose technologies" used by all kinds of companies. The mechanised looms the Luddites hated in England in the early 1800s, for instance, rattled one industry. Information technology touches every business.
The changes are coming much faster this time, too. Mr Lindert says that's showing up in the steep drop in prices for some products this time.
In the Industrial Revolution, "the price of textiles went down. But it was a small number compared to how the cost of information storage has gone down. It's a fraction of what it was in the 1970s", Mr Lindert says. Now, computing power is doubling every 18 months to two years and the price is plummeting.
But Mr Lindert does not believe workers are doomed to unemployment. With the right skills and education, he says, they can learn to work with the machines and become productive enough to fend off the automation threat.
"There is a period of time that is extremely disruptive," says Thomas Schneider, CEO of the consultancy Restructuring Associates. "If you're 55 years old now and lose your job, the odds of you ever getting hired into what you were doing before is as close to zero as you can imagine. If you are a 12-year-old, you have a very bright future. It's just not doing what your father was doing or your mother was doing."
The rise of the iPhone, for instance, has put more than 290,000 people to work on related iPhone apps since 2007, according to Apple. That suggests that new technology continues to create new types of jobs that require higher skills and creativity.
"Over the long run, I have confidence we can do it," Mr Stiglitz says. But, he warns, "I can see us being in this kind of doldrums for half a decade, for a decade, or for longer."
Jobs, but not good ones
Some economists worry that the sluggish, lopsided labour market of the past five years is what we'll be stuck with in the future.
Smarter machines and niftier software will continue to replace more and more mid-pay jobs, making businesses more productive and swelling their profits.
The most highly skilled workers, who can use machines to be more productive but can't be replaced by them, will continue to prosper. Many low-pay jobs are likely to remain sheltered from the technological offensive: robots are too clumsy to tidy up hotel rooms or clear dirty dishes at busy restaurants.
"Computers can do calculus better than any human being," says Andrew McAfee, the principal research scientist at MIT's Center for Digital Business. But "restaurant bus boy is a very safe job for a long time to come".
Under this scenario, technology could continue to push economic growth but only a few would enjoy the benefits. More people would be competing for mid-pay jobs, so pay would shrivel. Many midskill workers would be left unemployed or shunted into low-skill, low-pay jobs. The income gap between the rich and ordinary citizens, already at record levels in many developed countries, would continue to widen.
Mass unemployment
In a speech last year, the former US treasury secretary Lawrence Summers said the biggest economic issue of the future would not be the federal debt or competition from China but "the dramatic transformations that technology is bringing about".
Mr Summers imagined a machine called the "Doer" that could make anything or provide any service. Productivity would soar. Wonderful goods and services would emerge. Enormous wealth would go "to those who could design better Doers, to those who could think of better things for Doers to do". But everyone else would be worthless in the labour market.
Mr Summers said the world is moving in that direction and has completed only 15 per cent of the journey, but already we are "observing its consequences".
Consequences, indeed. ATMs dislodged bank tellers. Microsoft Outlook manages what secretaries used to do. Expedia is replacing travel agents. And robots continue to supplant factory workers.
But surely some jobs are safe. Lorry drivers, perhaps? A machine can't negotiate a left-hand turn against oncoming traffic without a human behind the wheel, can it? Or so economists Frank Levy of MIT and Richard Murnane of Harvard University reasoned in their book The New Division of Labor, way back in 2004.
That was then.
Six years later, Google developed a car that could drive itself, crossing the Golden Gate Bridge, circling Lake Tahoe and cruising down Hollywood Boulevard. The driverless car could soon claim victims in the job market.
"Twice a week, a truck comes near my house, and two guys get out and pick up the garbage," says Mr Vardi, the Rice computer scientist. "This will disappear. There will still be a truck coming, but it will be driven autonomously, and the garbage will be picked up autonomously, and those jobs will be gone."
In the United States alone, 92,000 people are employed as sanitation workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Add all other driving occupations, from long-haul truckers to taxi cab drivers, and the total exceeds 4 million. All those jobs may be in danger.
And that's the future: Other occupations already are disappearing. Add up the jobs that technology can take across dozens of occupations and the result, Mr Vardi and others warn, is unemployment on a scale we haven't begun to imagine.
"The vast majority of people do routine work. The human economy has always demanded routine work," says software entrepreneur Martin Ford. He worries that machines will take all those routine jobs, leaving few opportunities for ordinary workers.
"People talk about the future, creating new industries and new businesses," Ford says. "But there's every indication that these are not going to be in labour-intensive industries. ... Right from the get-go, they're going to be digital."
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Who are the Soroptimists?
The first Soroptimists club was founded in Oakland, California in 1921. The name comes from the Latin word soror which means sister, combined with optima, meaning the best.
The organisation said its name is best interpreted as ‘the best for women’.
Since then the group has grown exponentially around the world and is officially affiliated with the United Nations. The organisation also counts Queen Mathilde of Belgium among its ranks.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Planes grounded by coronavirus
British Airways: Cancels all direct flights to and from mainland China
Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific: Cutting capacity to/from mainland China by 50 per cent from Jan. 30
Chicago-based United Airlines: Reducing flights to Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong
Ai Seoul: Suspended all flights to China
Finnair: Suspending flights to Nanjing and Beijing Daxing until the end of March
Indonesia's Lion Air: Suspending all flights to China from February
South Korea's Asiana Airlines, Jeju Air and Jin Air: Suspend all flights
The biog
Name: Salvador Toriano Jr
Age: 59
From: Laguna, The Philippines
Favourite dish: Seabass or Fish and Chips
Hobbies: When he’s not in the restaurant, he still likes to cook, along with walking and meeting up with friends.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Tips for newlyweds to better manage finances
All couples are unique and have to create a financial blueprint that is most suitable for their relationship, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial. He offers his top five tips for couples to better manage their finances.
Discuss your assets and debts: When married, it’s important to understand each other’s personal financial situation. It’s necessary to know upfront what each party brings to the table, as debts and assets affect spending habits and joint loan qualifications. Discussing all aspects of their finances as a couple prevents anyone from being blindsided later.
Decide on the financial/saving goals: Spouses should independently list their top goals and share their lists with one another to shape a joint plan. Writing down clear goals will help them determine how much to save each month, how much to put aside for short-term goals, and how they will reach their long-term financial goals.
Set a budget: A budget can keep the couple be mindful of their income and expenses. With a monthly budget, couples will know exactly how much they can spend in a category each month, how much they have to work with and what spending areas need to be evaluated.
Decide who manages what: When it comes to handling finances, it’s a good idea to decide who manages what. For example, one person might take on the day-to-day bills, while the other tackles long-term investments and retirement plans.
Money date nights: Talking about money should be a healthy, ongoing conversation and couples should not wait for something to go wrong. They should set time aside every month to talk about future financial decisions and see the progress they’ve made together towards accomplishing their goals.
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
The Vines - In Miracle Land
Two stars
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
England's all-time record goalscorers:
Wayne Rooney 53
Bobby Charlton 49
Gary Lineker 48
Jimmy Greaves 44
Michael Owen 40
Tom Finney 30
Nat Lofthouse 30
Alan Shearer 30
Viv Woodward 29
Frank Lampard 29
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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RIVER%20SPIRIT
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELeila%20Aboulela%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Saqi%20Books%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Other must-tries
Tomato and walnut salad
A lesson in simple, seasonal eating. Wedges of tomato, chunks of cucumber, thinly sliced red onion, coriander or parsley leaves, and perhaps some fresh dill are drizzled with a crushed walnut and garlic dressing. Do consider yourself warned: if you eat this salad in Georgia during the summer months, the tomatoes will be so ripe and flavourful that every tomato you eat from that day forth will taste lacklustre in comparison.
Badrijani nigvzit
A delicious vegetarian snack or starter. It consists of thinly sliced, fried then cooled aubergine smothered with a thick and creamy walnut sauce and folded or rolled. Take note, even though it seems like you should be able to pick these morsels up with your hands, they’re not as durable as they look. A knife and fork is the way to go.
Pkhali
This healthy little dish (a nice antidote to the khachapuri) is usually made with steamed then chopped cabbage, spinach, beetroot or green beans, combined with walnuts, garlic and herbs to make a vegetable pâté or paste. The mix is then often formed into rounds, chilled in the fridge and topped with pomegranate seeds before being served.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
Three ways to get a gratitude glow
By committing to at least one of these daily, you can bring more gratitude into your life, says Ong.
- During your morning skincare routine, name five things you are thankful for about yourself.
- As you finish your skincare routine, look yourself in the eye and speak an affirmation, such as: “I am grateful for every part of me, including my ability to take care of my skin.”
- In the evening, take some deep breaths, notice how your skin feels, and listen for what your skin is grateful for.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
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THE DETAILS
Deadpool 2
Dir: David Leitch
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Josh Brolin, Justin Dennison, Zazie Beetz
Four stars
What is a calorie?
A food calorie, or kilocalorie, is a measure of nutritional energy generated from what is consumed.
One calorie, is the amount of heat needed to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1°C.
A kilocalorie represents a 1,000 true calories of energy.
Energy density figures are often quoted as calories per serving, with one gram of fat in food containing nine calories, and a gram of protein or carbohydrate providing about four.
Alcohol contains about seven calories a gram.
What is a Ponzi scheme?
A fraudulent investment operation where the scammer provides fake reports and generates returns for old investors through money paid by new investors, rather than through ligitimate business activities.
The biog
Favourite car: Ferrari
Likes the colour: Black
Best movie: Avatar
Academic qualifications: Bachelor’s degree in media production from the Higher Colleges of Technology and diploma in production from the New York Film Academy
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Indian origin executives leading top technology firms
Sundar Pichai
Chief executive, Google and Alphabet
Satya Nadella
Chief executive, Microsoft
Ajaypal Singh Banga
President and chief executive, Mastercard
Shantanu Narayen
Chief executive, chairman, and president, Adobe
Indra Nooyi
Board of directors, Amazon and former chief executive, PepsiCo
Match info
What: Fifa Club World Cup play-off
Who: Al Ain v Team Wellington
Where: Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
When: Wednesday, kick off 7.30pm
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Croatia v Hungary, Thursday, 10.45pm, UAE
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
