The significance of Barack Obama's victory cannot be overstated. Besides the obvious fact of being the first African-American elected to the office, there are several other metrics that help define the importance of his win.
Since 1980, when the so-called "Reagan Revolution" swept conservative Republicans into power, it has been said that Democrats were in retreat. In the 28 years that followed Reagan's win only one Democrat (Bill Clinton) was elected president and many believe his initial victory was largely due to the presence on the ballot of a third-party candidate, Ross Perot. (Mr Perot garnered 19 per cent of the vote.)
After George W Bush won re-election in 2004 some Republicans, most notably Karl Rove, crowed that there was a realignment under way in US politics that would result in long-term Republican control. That was 2004. Four years later, Mr Rove's "realignment vision" has been shattered by a combination of factors.
The failures of the Bush administration were, first and foremost, the reasons behind the Republicans' undoing. The combination of its disastrous performance in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the unravelling of its Middle East misadventures took a dramatic toll. The economic downturn that led to a Wall Street meltdown was the coup de grâce.
Despite their hubris, Mr Bush and his administration were never hugely popular. Although his favourable ratings jumped to near high 90-per-cent levels after September 11, by the summer of 2002 they were back to their normal resting place in the low 40s.
He got other "bounces" in ratings, notably with the start of the Iraq war, but each bounce was smaller than its predecessor and the decline that followed would also bring him to successively lower levels. During the past year Mr Bush's ratings were never higher than the low 30-per-cent range and are now in the low 20s - one of the lowest recorded for a sitting president. All of these failures combined to create questions about the efficacy of the country's most basic institutions and a correspondingly deep desire for change.
From his initial entry into presidential politics, voters sensed something unique about Mr Obama. He inspired hope and mobilised unprecedented numbers of supporters, creating a wave unseen in US politics. And despite efforts to sully his image, he weathered many storms without descending into rancour.
In addition to the power of his persona, Mr Obama's overall effort was enhanced by a disciplined and extraordinarily effective campaign apparatus.
While others had used internet technology with some success (John McCain as a fund-raising tool in 2000 and Howard Dean for fund-raising and organising in 2004), Mr Obama's use of the internet has transformed the way politics will be done in the future. Still-incomplete reports show more than US$650 million (Dh2.4billion) raised from 3.2 million donors, with the majority of the money coming via the internet.
There were millions of individuals working from their homes as virtual phone bankers, calling lists generated by the Obama website, resulting in personal contact with tens of millions of voters. Additionally, millions of mobile phone users were networked by the campaign to turn out the vote.
Throughout the campaign, often at critical stages, YouTube videos, an innovation in this election, virally spread Mr Obama's speeches and ads to tens of millions countrywide. And finally, while in previous elections the Right had dominated the media environment - using such outlets as Fox News with its 2.3 million viewers, right-wing talk radio's 19 million listeners and, in 2004, the nine million who logged in daily to the Drudge Report - in 2008 liberal venues levelled the playing field.
A final factor to account for Mr Obama's victory that dismantled the "Rove realignment" are dramatic changes in the demographics among registered voters.
This year, largely because of the efforts of the Obama campaign, millions of new voters were registered and mobilised to vote from African-American, Latino and other minority groups and among the young. In many states these new voters tipped the balance in favour of the Democrats.
Mr Obama won a greater percentage of the overall vote than any victorious Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Given that this was the largest percentage turnout of registered voters since 1964, Mr Obama won more votes than any previous candidate for US president (nearly four million more than voted for Bush in 2004).
This is the first time since 1992 that the party of the sitting president will comfortably control both houses of Congress.
Although some congressional seats are still to be decided, it is clear that Democrats will have greatly increased their hold in both the Senate and the House, representing the first time since 1980 that any party has increased its numbers in two consecutive elections.
Mr Obama won Virginia, which is the first time a Democrat has won that state since the 1964 signing of the civil rights act which resulted in a white backlash against Democrats. Mr Obama also won North Carolina and Florida and was competitive in Georgia, where no Democrat from outside the South has done well since 1964.
All in all it was a victory so sweeping that pundits are now speaking about a permanent Democratic realignment - a prediction of which Democrats should remain wary, lest hubris bring about their undoing.
jzogby@thenational.ae
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Specs
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THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
UAE%20ILT20
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
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Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
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