Update: US presidential prediction professor talks 2024 election
He is the wizard of US presidential elections, having predicted accurately every winner from Ronald Reagan in 1984 to Donald Trump in 2016. Now, Allan Lichtman is confident that the current president will lose to Joe Biden in November.
Prof Lichtman, a professor of history at American University, built a prediction model in 1982 that ignores the polls and the daily fracas of campaigns.
Instead, it is based on 13 trends or "keys" that determine the winner, detailed in his book Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House.
These keys include party mandate, third-party challenge, social unrest, incumbency, foreign policy or military success, and the charisma of the candidates.
"My assessment is that the keys to the White House count out the re-election of Donald Trump," Prof Lichtman tells The National.
“The beauty of the keys to the model is it doesn’t look at polls, it ignores the pundits and it looks at the big picture of the incumbent’s strengths and performance ... these don’t change with the swinging winds of politics.”
Many are voting against Donald Trump and not for Joe Biden
Incumbency is historically a powerful advantage – only five US presidents seeking re-election have lost since 1900.
The last incumbent to lose the presidency was George H Bush to Bill Clinton in 1992, and Prof Lichtman predicted that outcome.
“Mr Trump is just not going to replay the 2016 playbook; as incumbent, it’s governing and not campaigning that counts,” he says.
In 2016, following his lone prediction that Mr Trump would win against Hillary Clinton, the newly elected president sent Prof Lichtman a signed copy of the article bearing his forecast.
“Professor congrats, good call,” Mr Trump wrote.
But Prof Lichtman expects a different result this year even though some polls suggest the race is narrowing between the two candidates.
“The polls are a snapshot, they are not predictors, unlike my model they don’t base their assessment on the underlying dynamics of how elections really work.”
The professor is not waiting for the coming three debates between Mr Trump and Mr Biden – the first on September 29 – to re-evaluate his assessment.
“No, the debates won’t move the needle. The traditional campaigning has never influenced the outcome of the presidency one way or another,” he says, pointing out that Hillary Clinton and John Kerry won their debates in 2016 and 2004 but lost the election.
Similarly, he does not see the kind of a foreign policy success for Mr Trump that would alter the course of the race.
“To qualify as foreign policy success it has to fit into two criteria – it has to be of substantive importance and to be broadly recognised by the American people,” he says.
Prof Lichtman acknowledges there are outside factors that could disrupt his model.
“What keeps me awake at night and is outside the realm of any prediction system are two factors: voter suppression and Russian interference,” he says.
“Any prediction is based on a free and fair election process.”
But when it comes the size of campaign rallies or the number of homes displaying signs of support for either candidate, Prof Lichtman says these will have little impact.
“There is nothing to take from signs. Many are voting against Donald Trump and not for Joe Biden.”
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Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
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Price: From Dh117,059
Race card
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m
6.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m
7pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 2,400m
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
RESULTS
6.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (Dirt) 1.600m
Winner: Miller’s House, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Kanood, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
7.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 82,500 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Gervais, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: The Garhoud Sprint Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Important Mission, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
8.50pm: The Entisar Listed (TB) Dh 132,500 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Firnas, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer.
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 120,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Zhou Storm, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
MAIN CARD
Bantamweight 56.4kg
Abrorbek Madiminbekov v Mehdi El Jamari
Super heavyweight 94 kg
Adnan Mohammad v Mohammed Ajaraam
Lightweight 60kg
Zakaria Eljamari v Faridoon Alik Zai
Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Mahmood Amin v Taha Marrouni
Light welterweight 64.5kg
Siyovush Gulmamadov v Nouredine Samir
Light heavyweight 81.4kg
Ilyass Habibali v Haroun Baka
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Baftas 2020 winners
BEST FILM
- 1917 - Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Sam Mendes, Jayne-Ann Tenggren
- THE IRISHMAN - Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
- JOKER - Bradley Cooper, Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho, Kwak Sin-ae
DIRECTOR
- 1917 - Sam Mendes
- THE IRISHMAN - Martin Scorsese
- JOKER - Todd Phillips
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
- 1917 - Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Krysty Wilson-Cairns
- BAIT - Mark Jenkin, Kate Byers, Linn Waite
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- ROCKETMAN - Dexter Fletcher, Adam Bohling, David Furnish, David Reid, Matthew Vaughn, Lee Hall
- SORRY WE MISSED YOU - Ken Loach, Rebecca O’Brien, Paul Laverty
- THE TWO POPES - Fernando Meirelles, Jonathan Eirich, Dan Lin, Tracey Seaward, Anthony McCarten
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
- THE FAREWELL - Lulu Wang, Daniele Melia
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- PAIN AND GLORY - Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
- PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE - Céline Sciamma, Bénédicte Couvreur
LEADING ACTRESS
- JESSIE BUCKLEY - Wild Rose
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Marriage Story
- SAOIRSE RONAN - Little Women
- CHARLIZE THERON - Bombshell
- RENÉE ZELLWEGER - Judy
LEADING ACTOR
- LEONARDO DICAPRIO - Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood
- ADAM DRIVER - Marriage Story
- TARON EGERTON - Rocketman
- JOAQUIN PHOENIX - Joker
- JONATHAN PRYCE - The Two Popes
SUPPORTING ACTOR
- TOM HANKS - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
- ANTHONY HOPKINS - The Two Popes
- AL PACINO - The Irishman
- JOE PESCI - The Irishman
- BRAD PITT - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- LAURA DERN - Marriage Story
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Jojo Rabbit
- FLORENCE PUGH - Little Women
- MARGOT ROBBIE - Bombshell
- MARGOT ROBBIE - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- THE IRISHMAN - Steven Zaillian
- JOJO RABBIT - Taika Waititi
- JOKER - Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
- LITTLE WOMEN - Greta Gerwig
- THE TWO POPES - Anthony McCarten
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- BOOKSMART - Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Katie Silberman
- KNIVES OUT - Rian Johnson
- MARRIAGE STORY - Noah Baumbach
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Han Jin Won, Bong Joon ho
DOCUMENTARY
- AMERICAN FACTORY - Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert
- APOLLO 11 - Todd Douglas Miller
- DIEGO MARADONA - Asif Kapadia
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- THE GREAT HACK - Karim Amer, Jehane Noujaime
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
- BAIT - Mark Jenkin (Writer/Director), Kate Byers, Linn Waite (Producers)
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab (Director/Producer), Edward Watts (Director)
- MAIDEN - Alex Holmes (Director)
- ONLY YOU - Harry Wootliff (Writer/Director)
- RETABLO - Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio (Writer/Director)
ANIMATED FILM
- FROZEN 2 - Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho
- KLAUS - Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh
- A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON - Will Becher, Richard Phelan, Paul Kewley
- TOY STORY 4 - Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen
CASTING
- JOKER - Shayna Markowitz
- MARRIAGE STORY - Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Victoria Thomas
- THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD - Sarah Crowe
- THE TWO POPES - Nina Gold
EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
- AWKWAFINA
- JACK LOWDEN
- KAITLYN DEVER
- KELVIN HARRISON JR.
- MICHEAL WARD
CINEMATOGRAPHY
- 1917 - Roger Deakins
- THE IRISHMAN - Rodrigo Prieto
- JOKER - Lawrence Sher
- LE MANS ’66 - Phedon Papamichael
- THE LIGHTHOUSE - Jarin Blaschke
EDITING
- THE IRISHMAN - Thelma Schoonmaker
- JOJO RABBIT - Tom Eagles
- JOKER - Jeff Groth
- LE MANS ’66 - Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Fred Raskin
COSTUME DESIGN
- THE IRISHMAN - Christopher Peterson, Sandy Powell
- JOJO RABBIT - Mayes C. Rubeo
- JUDY - Jany Temime
- LITTLE WOMEN - Jacqueline Durran
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Arianne Phillips
PRODUCTION DESIGN
- 1917 - Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales
- THE IRISHMAN - Bob Shaw, Regina Graves
- JOJO RABBIT - Ra Vincent, Nora Sopková
- JOKER - Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh
SOUND
- 1917 - Scott Millan, Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson
- JOKER - Tod Maitland, Alan Robert Murray, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic
- LE MANS ’66 - David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Steven A. Morrow, Donald Sylvester
- ROCKETMAN - Matthew Collinge, John Hayes, Mike Prestwood Smith, Danny Sheehan
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood
ORIGINAL SCORE
- 1917 - Thomas Newman
- JOJO RABBIT - Michael Giacchino
- JOKER - Hildur Guđnadóttir
- LITTLE WOMEN - Alexandre Desplat
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - John Williams
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
- 1917 - Greg Butler, Guillaume Rocheron, Dominic Tuohy
- AVENGERS: ENDGAME - Dan Deleeuw, Dan Sudick
- THE IRISHMAN - Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, Pablo Helman
- THE LION KING - Andrew R. Jones, Robert Legato, Elliot Newman, Adam Valdez
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy
MAKE UP & HAIR
- 1917 - Naomi Donne
- BOMBSHELL - Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan
- JOKER - Kay Georgiou, Nicki Ledermann
- JUDY - Jeremy Woodhead
- ROCKETMAN - Lizzie Yianni Georgiou
BRITISH SHORT FILM
- AZAAR - Myriam Raja, Nathanael Baring
- GOLDFISH - Hector Dockrill, Harri Kamalanathan, Benedict Turnbull, Laura Dockrill
- KAMALI - Sasha Rainbow, Rosalind Croad
- LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) - Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva
- THE TRAP - Lena Headey, Anthony Fitzgerald
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
- GRANDAD WAS A ROMANTIC - Maryam Mohajer
- IN HER BOOTS - Kathrin Steinbacher
- THE MAGIC BOAT - Naaman Azh
