Polar bears could become extinct by the end of the century because of melting sea ice unless more is done to tackle climate change, a study claims.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, shows how declining sea ice caused by global warming is drastically decreasing polar bear numbers.
It is the first time scientists have predicted for the first time when, where and how polar bears are likely to become extinct.
“It’s been clear for some time that polar bears are going to suffer under climate change,” said Peter Molnar, a biologist at the University of Toronto Scarborough and lead author of the study.
“But what was not fully clear was when we would expect major declines in the survival and reproduction of polar bears that could ultimately lead to their extirpation.
"We didn’t know whether that would happen early or later in this century.”
The animals, which are already considered to be endangered, need the ice to catch seals for food because they are not sufficiently skilled as swimmers to capture them in open water.
"Ultimately, the bears need food and in order to have food, they need ice," Mr Molnar said.
"But in order for them to have ice, we need to control climate change."
Models were used to determine the bears’ energy needs while fasting and thresholds that would make survival difficult, as well as one predicting the future number of days without ice.
The data was then used to estimate when survival thresholds would be passed for 13 Arctic sub-populations that represent 80 per cent of polar bears.
Researchers said that if humans failed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, most populations of the species could struggle to survive beyond 2100.
They said many of the polar bears would begin to experience reproductive failure, leading to local extinctions as early as 2040.
Scientists estimate there are fewer than 26,000 polar bears left in the world, in regions such as Hudson Bay in north-east Canada and the Svalbard Archipelago in Norway.
But Mr Molnar said there was a chance that some could be saved with “aggressive” cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
"I'm well aware that the story we're telling is a grim one," Mr Molnar said.
"But there is also an element of hope that they are not completely doomed if we change our behaviour."
Last year was one of the worst years on record for Greenland’s ice sheet, which shrank by hundreds of billions of tonnes in a high-pressure environment brought on by unusually clear skies and warmer temperatures, a study found in April.
The ice sheet, the second largest in the Arctic, lost about 600 million tonnes last year.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
Episode list:
Ep1: A recovery like no other- the unevenness of the economic recovery
Ep2: PCR and jobs - the future of work - new trends and challenges
Ep3: The recovery and global trade disruptions - globalisation post-pandemic
Ep4: Inflation- services and goods - debt risks
Ep5: Travel and tourism
Disability on screen
Empire — neuromuscular disease myasthenia gravis; bipolar disorder; post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)
Rosewood and Transparent — heart issues
24: Legacy — PTSD;
Superstore and NCIS: New Orleans — wheelchair-bound
Taken and This Is Us — cancer
Trial & Error — cognitive disorder prosopagnosia (facial blindness and dyslexia)
Grey’s Anatomy — prosthetic leg
Scorpion — obsessive compulsive disorder and anxiety
Switched at Birth — deafness
One Mississippi, Wentworth and Transparent — double mastectomy
Dragons — double amputee
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Sebastian Stefan, Sebastian Morar and Claudia Pacurar
Based: Dubai, UAE
Founded: 2014
Number of employees: 36
Sector: Logistics
Raised: $2.5 million
Investors: DP World, Prime Venture Partners and family offices in Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Racecard
6pm: The Pointe - Conditions (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,400m
6.35pm: Palm West Beach - Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (T) 1,800m
7.10pm: The View at the Palm - Handicap (TB) Dh85,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.45pm: Nakeel Graduate Stakes - Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m
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8.55pm: The Palm Fountain - Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m
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Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
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GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Wenger's Arsenal reign in numbers
1,228 - games at the helm, ahead of Sunday's Premier League fixture against West Ham United.
704 - wins to date as Arsenal manager.
3 - Premier League title wins, the last during an unbeaten Invincibles campaign of 2003/04.
1,549 - goals scored in Premier League matches by Wenger's teams.
10 - major trophies won.
473 - Premier League victories.
7 - FA Cup triumphs, with three of those having come the last four seasons.
151 - Premier League losses.
21 - full seasons in charge.
49 - games unbeaten in the Premier League from May 2003 to October 2004.
