President Donald Trump on Saturday welcomed home the American pastor whose incarceration sparked one of the lowest points in US-Turkey relations, but the impact of his release on the Nato allies’ troubled relationship remained to be seen.
Andrew Brunson, a 50-year-old evangelical preacher from North Carolina, was freed on Friday despite being sentenced to just over three years on terror charges. Judges ruled that the two years he had already spent in jail or under house arrest was sufficient punishment.
The decision removed one of the central disputes between Ankara and Washington in recent years, but it remains unclear whether it will be enough to repair ties or do much to restore the ailing Turkish economy, which was put under greater pressure by the affair.
Keeping Mr Brunson in detention raised the risk of further US retaliation and more damage to the Turkish economy, according to Inan Demir, a senior economist at Nomura International.
"If Brunson is not released, the markets will start to price in further sanctions by the US," Mr Demir told The National before the court delivered its verdict. "And, as long as we don't have much clarity on the US sanctions, the markets' inclination will be to price in the more adverse scenario."
Selim Sazak, an adjunct fellow at New York’s Century Foundation and an international relations doctoral candidate at Brown University, noted that Turkey’s economic issues were more deep-rooted.
“Turkey’s problems are its own, they’re not of the US’s making,” he said. “The US is not responsible for appointing the president’s son-in-law to head the finance ministry or for overseeing a runaway credit boom or for corruption.
“The Turkish economy faces multiple organ failure, it’s systemic.”
Although the Turkish lira, which had lost about 40 per cent of its value against the dollar this year, recovered by 3 per cent in the run-up to the court hearing that saw Mr Brunson freed, there was little change on Friday, although 10-year Turkish government bonds gained nearly 12 per cent in price.
“We’re talking about an extra cherry on the cake,” Mr Sazak said. “But the problem’s not the cherries, it’s the cake itself, which is falling apart.”
Arrested in October 2016, Mr Brunson’s case was highlighted by President Donald Trump over the summer. In August, Washington imposed sanctions on two Turkish cabinet ministers and later doubled tariffs on steel and aluminium, sending the lira to a historic low against the dollar.
The case had also become a lightning rod for a host of disputes between the US and Turkey.
These include the refusal to extradite US-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, who Ankara accuses of masterminding a July 2016 coup attempt; American support for Syrian-Kurdish fighters linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has waged a four-decade fight against Turkey; the conviction and imprisonment of a Turkish bank executive for breaking US sanctions on Iran; and Turkey’s deal with Russia to buy air defence missiles.
As well as Mr Brunson, Turkey has jailed an unknown number of other US citizens, including Turkish-American Nasa scientist Serkan Golge, and local consulate staff.
The US has indicated it will also push for their release but on the day Mr Brunson was freed, Hamza Ulucay, a translator at the Adana consulate who faces 15 years in jail on terror charges, had his request to be let out of prison turned down.
Welcoming Mr Brunson’s release, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said the US was still “deeply concerned about the continued detention of other United States citizens in Turkey”.
Refusing to say if the sanctions on Turkish ministers would now be lifted, she added: “The United States and Turkey have a number of mutual concerns regarding regional security and stability and we look forward to working together on these issues.”
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Read more:
Who is Pastor Andrew Brunson?
Turks refuse to back down in diplomatic spat with Trump team
US sanctions Turkey over Pastor Brunson detention
Turkish court rejects US pastor's appeal
Trump tweets support for American pastor on trial in Turkey
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The imprisonment of Americans has endangered Turkey’s acquisition of F-35 fighter jets, which it helped develop alongside other Nato members. US senators specifically cited “wrongfully or unlawfully” held US citizens when proposing a bill to block the transfer of F-35s to Turkey earlier this year.
In addition, the two countries are now embroiled in the case of missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a US resident who disappeared after visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul nearly two weeks ago.
“It’s difficult to see what difference the Brunson case alone will make to the relationship between Turkey and the US,” said a political scientist at a leading Istanbul university who asked not to be named.
“There are so many issues and I don’t know who’s going to step on whose toes the next time round. They might have learned one thing, which is not to push a problem to such an extreme, but this is not a significant step towards reconciliation or convergence because tomorrow it will be something else.”
Before the Mr Brunson's arrival at the White House, Mr Trump tweeted his thanks to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan “for his help”, although the Turkish leader has repeatedly said that the case was a matter for the judiciary and out of his hands.
Mr Trump dismissed reports that the pastor's freedom was the result of an arrangement between Washington and Ankara.
And despite Mr Trump's optimism that the result would be “good, perhaps great” ties with Turkey, Mr Sazak said the fraught US-Turkey relationship remained unresolved.
“Unless you solve the PKK problem and the Gulen problem, there will be no solution,” he said.
The specs: Hyundai Ionic Hybrid
Price, base: Dh117,000 (estimate)
Engine: 1.6L four-cylinder, with 1.56kWh battery
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power: 105hp (engine), plus 43.5hp (battery)
Torque: 147Nm (engine), plus 170Nm (battery)
Fuel economy, combined: 3.4L / 100km
Four tips to secure IoT networks
Mohammed Abukhater, vice president at FireEye in the Middle East, said:
- Keep device software up-to-date. Most come with basic operating system, so users should ensure that they always have the latest version
- Besides a strong password, use two-step authentication. There should be a second log-in step like adding a code sent to your mobile number
- Usually smart devices come with many unnecessary features. Users should lock those features that are not required or used frequently
- Always create a different guest network for visitors
Things Heard & Seen
Directed by: Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini
Starring: Amanda Seyfried, James Norton
2/5
DIVINE%20INTERVENTOIN
%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Elia%20Suleiman%2C%20Manal%20Khader%2C%20Amer%20Daher%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Elia%20Suleiman%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE%20Warriors%20fight%20card
%3Cp%3EMain%20Event%0D%3A%20Catchweight%20165lb%0D%3Cbr%3EMartun%20Mezhulmyan%20(ARM)%20v%20Acoidan%20Duque%20(ESP)%0D%3Cbr%3ECo-Main%20Event%0D%3A%20Bantamweight%0D%3Cbr%3EFelipe%20Pereira%20(BRA)%20v%20Azamat%20Kerefov%20(RUS)%0D%3Cbr%3EMiddleweight%0D%3Cbr%3EMohamad%20Osseili%20(LEB)%20v%20Amir%20Fazli%20(IRN)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20161%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EZhu%20Rong%20(CHI)%20vs.%20Felipe%20Maia%20(BRA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20176%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EHandesson%20Ferreira%20(BRA)%20vs.%20Ion%20Surdu%20(MDA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20168%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EArtur%20Zaynukov%20(RUS)%20v%20Sargis%20Vardanyan%20(ARM)%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%0D%3Cbr%3EIlkhom%20Nazimov%20(UZB)%20v%20Khazar%20Rustamov%20(AZE)%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJalal%20Al%20Daaja%20(JOR)%20v%20Mark%20Alcoba%20(PHI)%0D%3Cbr%3ELightweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJakhongir%20Jumaev%20(UZB)%20v%20Dylan%20Salvador%20(FRA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20143%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EHikaru%20Yoshino%20(JPN)%20v%20Djamal%20Rustem%20(TUR)%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJavohir%20Imamov%20(UZB)%20v%20Ulan%20Tamgabaev%20(KAZ)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20120%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3ELarissa%20Carvalho%20(BRA)%20v%20Elin%20Oberg%20(SWE)%0D%3Cbr%3ELightweight%0D%3Cbr%3EHussein%20Salem%20(IRQ)%20v%20Arlan%20Faurillo%20(PHI)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Which honey takes your fancy?
Al Ghaf Honey
The Al Ghaf tree is a local desert tree which bears the harsh summers with drought and high temperatures. From the rich flowers, bees that pollinate this tree can produce delicious red colour honey in June and July each year
Sidr Honey
The Sidr tree is an evergreen tree with long and strong forked branches. The blossom from this tree is called Yabyab, which provides rich food for bees to produce honey in October and November. This honey is the most expensive, but tastiest
Samar Honey
The Samar tree trunk, leaves and blossom contains Barm which is the secret of healing. You can enjoy the best types of honey from this tree every year in May and June. It is an historical witness to the life of the Emirati nation which represents the harsh desert and mountain environments
Results
1. New Zealand Daniel Meech – Fine (name of horse), Richard Gardner – Calisto, Bruce Goodin - Backatorps Danny V, Samantha McIntosh – Check In. Team total First round: 200.22; Second round: 201.75 – Penalties 12 (jump-off 40.16 seconds) Prize €64,000
2. Ireland Cameron Hanley – Aiyetoro, David Simpson – Keoki, Paul Kennedy – Cartown Danger Mouse, Shane Breen – Laith. Team total 200.25/202.84 – P 12 (jump-off 51.79 – P17) Prize €40,000
3. Italy Luca Maria Moneta – Connery, Luca Coata – Crandessa, Simone Coata – Dardonge, Natale Chiaudani – Almero. Team total 130.82/198.-4 – P20. Prize €32,000
Scoreline
Ireland 16 (Tries: Stockdale Cons: Sexton Pens: Sexton 3)
New Zealand 9 (Pens: Barrett 2 Drop Goal: Barrett)
Arsenal's pre-season fixtures
Thursday Beat Sydney 2-0 in Sydney
Saturday v Western Sydney Wanderers in Sydney
Wednesday v Bayern Munich in Shanghai
July 22 v Chelsea in Beijing
July 29 v Benfica in London
July 30 v Sevilla in London
UNpaid bills:
Countries with largest unpaid bill for UN budget in 2019
USA – $1.055 billion
Brazil – $143 million
Argentina – $52 million
Mexico – $36 million
Iran – $27 million
Israel – $18 million
Venezuela – $17 million
Korea – $10 million
Countries with largest unpaid bill for UN peacekeeping operations in 2019
USA – $2.38 billion
Brazil – $287 million
Spain – $110 million
France – $103 million
Ukraine – $100 million
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
SQUADS
UAE
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice-captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
Nepal
Paras Khadka (captain), Gyanendra Malla, Dipendra Singh Airee, Pradeep Airee, Binod Bhandari, Avinash Bohara, Sundeep Jora, Sompal Kami, Karan KC, Rohit Paudel, Sandeep Lamichhane, Lalit Rajbanshi, Basant Regmi, Pawan Sarraf, Bhim Sharki, Aarif Sheikh
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg result:
Ajax 2-3 Tottenham
Tottenham advance on away goals rule after tie ends 3-3 on aggregate
Final: June 1, Madrid
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MATCH INFO
Champions League quarter-final, first leg
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE)
Matches can be watched on BeIN Sports
'The Predator'
Dir: Shane Black
Starring: Olivia Munn, Boyd Holbrook, Keegan-Michael Key
Two and a half stars
