A US-Iran deal is on the horizon and negotiations could begin as early as this year, a former US diplomat and intelligence officer said.
In a vindication of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure strategy, David Gordon, now a senior adviser at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said it was no longer a question of if Tehran returns to the negotiating table but when.
"Iran has to enter into negotiations," Mr Gordon told The National. "There's no way they can last five years".
Sanctions imposed by Washington after US President Donald Trump pulled out of an Obama-era deal limiting Tehran’s nuclear programme have hit the country hard.
Oil revenues have plunged, and high rates of inflation and a youth unemployment rate of 28.6 per cent have hit the spending power and financial security of the Iranian people.
In London, Mr Gordon said Mr Trump’s strong position heading into the presidential elections in November this year was one of the main reasons that a deal soon was more likely.
“If the Iranians perceive the election is not going to be competitive, there could be an opening to start negotiations as early as 2020,” he said.
Mr Trump's campaign has been buoyed by a strong US economy, dashing Iranian hopes for a more favourable negotiating partner.
The economy grew 2.3 per cent in 2019, and his campaign has seized on a low unemployment rate, about 3.6 per cent, as evidence that he has made good on his promise to "Make America great again".
Mr Trump has also gained from infighting among a crowded field of opposition candidates, with former vice president Joe Biden failing to get clear of his rivals in the race for the Democratic nomination.
Mr Gordon said killing Iran’s top military commander, Qassem Suleimani, in a US drone strike in Baghdad in January was a key factor in bringing Tehran to the negotiating table.
Taking out the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' foreign operations arm, the Quds Force, makes the prospect of a new deal much more likely.
“Suleimani was the key operational figure in Iran’s regional policy,” Mr Gordon said.
He said the general was a “leading voice” of Iran’s sceptical approach to US engagement before and during negotiations for the 2015 deal.
Although the IRGC was likely to intensify its antagonistic strategy towards the US in the region, Suleimani's absence will seriously limit Iran’s capabilities, Mr Gordon said.
“They’ve lost such a strategic figure.”
Mr Gordon said the US stance to minimise fallout from Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes on American bases in Iraq was laying the groundwork for a deal.
“President Trump gave the impression that the Asad [airbase in Iraq] attack was de-escalatory,” he said.
Straight after the attack it was suggested that Iran had deliberately missed its target to avoid US casualties.
“The picture presented by the US media and the Trump administration isn’t really accurate,” Mr Gordon said.
Other analysts have stressed the accuracy of Iran’s missile strikes.
Dara Massicot, a military analyst at the Rand Corporation, said in January that satellite imagery showed the strikes appeared to have been aimed at the base’s capability.
“When I see the impact points of Iran’s strike on Asad airbase, I don’t see purely symbolic strikes designed to avoid casualties, as some have speculated,” she said on Twitter.
On Tuesday the Pentagon said more than 100 US soldiers had been diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries from the attacks.
Reimposing crippling sanctions has increased tension dramatically and has set Washington and Tehran on a path of brinkmanship.
But last month, Mr Trump said: “The US is ready to embrace peace with all who seek it.”
But Tehran on Tuesday taunted the US as it marked the 41st anniversary of the ousting of the American-backed shah, Reza Pahlavi.
"In the past two years, America has put so much pressure on our beloved people, on all of our trade, all of our exports, all of our imports, and all of the country's needs, to exhaust the patience of our people," President Hassan Rouhani told a rally in the capital.
But "the Americans did not understand the greatness of the Iranian people".
"It is unbearable for the United States to accept the victory of a great nation and that a superpower has been driven out of this land."
Mr Gordon said that a future deal between Washington and Tehran would most likely involve a “meaningful extension” of the timeframe from the existing nuclear agreement, which was due to run until 2030.
Any deal would also cover the issue of Iran’s ballistic missile programme, including possible restrictions on shorter-range missiles such as those used to strike at US forces in Iraq last month.
But the most difficult part of a future deal, Mr Gordon said, would be a way to put “a floor under regional tensions” and monitor them.
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
Profile of Tamatem
Date started: March 2013
Founder: Hussam Hammo
Based: Amman, Jordan
Employees: 55
Funding: $6m
Funders: Wamda Capital, Modern Electronics (part of Al Falaisah Group) and North Base Media
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The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
MATCH INFO
Hoffenheim v Liverpool
Uefa Champions League play-off, first leg
Location: Rhein-Neckar-Arena, Sinsheim
Kick-off: Tuesday, 10.45pm (UAE)
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
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Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
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Asia Cup Qualifier
Final
UAE v Hong Kong
Live on OSN Cricket HD. Coverage starts at 5.30am
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UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
More coverage from the Future Forum
Getting there
The flights
Flydubai operates up to seven flights a week to Helsinki. Return fares to Helsinki from Dubai start from Dh1,545 in Economy and Dh7,560 in Business Class.
The stay
Golden Crown Igloos in Levi offer stays from Dh1,215 per person per night for a superior igloo; www.leviniglut.net
Panorama Hotel in Levi is conveniently located at the top of Levi fell, a short walk from the gondola. Stays start from Dh292 per night based on two people sharing; www. golevi.fi/en/accommodation/hotel-levi-panorama
Arctic Treehouse Hotel in Rovaniemi offers stays from Dh1,379 per night based on two people sharing; www.arctictreehousehotel.com
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
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%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20S%20Frederick%20Starr%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Oxford%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20290%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Brief scoreline:
Wolves 3
Neves 28', Doherty 37', Jota 45' 2
Arsenal 1
Papastathopoulos 80'
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
More on Quran memorisation:
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%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Looming%20global%20slowdown%20and%20recession%20in%20key%20economies%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Russia-Ukraine%20war%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Interest%20rate%20hikes%20and%20the%20rising%20cost%20of%20debt%20servicing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Oil%20price%20volatility%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Persisting%20inflationary%20pressures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Exchange%20rate%20fluctuations%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shortage%20of%20labour%2Fskills%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20A%20resurgence%20of%20Covid%3F%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our legal advisor
Rasmi Ragy is a senior counsel at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Prosecutor in Egypt with more than 40 years experience across the GCC.
Education: Ain Shams University, Egypt, in 1978.
RIDE%20ON
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UAE players with central contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
