President Donald Trump will next week be making one of his most consequential policy decisions on the Middle East by determining whether Washington will remain part of the 2015 international agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Mr Trump has stuck to his niche of unpredictability and has kept many people guessing on what his decision will be as the May 12 deadline approaches.
The National has gathered a list of Mr Trump's options on the Iran nuclear deal and ranked their likelihood based on insights from multiple diplomatic sources and expert opinions in Washington.
1. Most likely: Trump does not certify the deal but waits before imposing new sanctions
Under this option, Mr Trump will not certify the deal by refraining to send Congress a letter to waive US sanctions imposed on Iran prior to 2015. Technically, this would mean that the Trump administration took its first step to pull out of the agreement.
However, this option does not mean that the US has completely withdrawn from the deal, which does not offer provisions for leaving it. The agreement is based on implementation, which for Washington pertains to waiving sanctions under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act every six months.
In this case, Mr Trump would have allowed Congress 60 days to decide on whether to impose new sanctions. During this period, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, the president’s national security adviser, could negotiate with the Europeans a new framework or use the threat of fresh sanctions to bring Iran to the negotiating table — something Tehran has so far rejected.
This option will allow Mr Trump to rally his base and fulfil his campaign promise not to certify what he called an “insane” and “ridiculous” deal but without completely upending negotiations with the Europeans, who still endorse the agreement.
2. Possible: US withdraws from deal and imposes limited sanctions
This option would mean that the Trump administration announces it is leaving the accord and that it intends to impose sanctions that target Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes. It would not go as far as imposing secondary sanctions that would target European banks doing business with Iran, as that could fracture the transatlantic alliance.
3. Also possible: US remains part of deal temporarily
While most people in Washington, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, believe Mr Trump will withdraw from the nuclear agreement, the US leader may still prove them wrong.
Congressman Mark Meadows, a Republican close to Mr Trump, told The Daily Beast in an interview published on Friday that he "would not necessarily draw a foregone conclusion that we're out this month".
He added: “To suggest that it’s a foregone conclusion that we’ll be out in weeks would be inaccurate based on my conversations with some of my colleagues on Capitol Hill, both Democrat and Republican.”
The White House has insisted that Mr Trump has not yet made a decision.
Agreeing to temporary stay part of the deal will depend on the fixes that Europeans offer. This option would allow Mr Trump to temporarily preserve the French-US-German alliance on Iran and seek better reinforcement or renegotiate the deal.
4. Less likely: Trump abandons deal and slaps sanctions that target European firms
This option would mean that the US completely withdraws from the Iran deal, as it did with the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement. It would also mean that Congress will be authorised to approve secondary sanctions — which pertains to foreign institutions, including Europeans ones doing business with Tehran.
This would inflict the most damage on the Iranian regime, but it would also fracture US-European relations and hurt business ties.
5. Not likely: Trump commits to deal and enforces it
This would mean that Mr Trump had made a 180 degree shift and accepted the nuclear agreement even if the negotiations with the Europeans fail to reach a new framework. It would force the US to commit to the implementation of the deal as a non-proliferation measure, while seeking a different framework at a later stage.
This option, however, remains highly unlikely given Mr Trump’s long-standing opposition to the deal and that he is seeking a reversal from the Obama era rather than continuity.
6. Least likely: Trump withdraws from deal and threatens military action
This option would mean that not only did the US withdraw from the deal, but it has also threatened military action against Iran if it pursues enrichment of uranium.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has threatened that Tehran would resume “vigorous” enrichment if the US leaves the deal. Mr Trump, in response, said that Iran “will have bigger problems than they have ever had before” if it did so.
Hardliners in the Trump administration, including Mr Bolton and Mr Pompeo, may see a benefit in bringing back a military threat against Tehran, but they will likely face a pushback from Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis, Congress and Washington’s European allies. This make a military threat less likely, yet possible.
The US president is expected to make a final decision by Saturday.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
'My Son'
Director: Christian Carion
Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
Honeymoonish
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The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
If you go
Flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh with a stop in Yangon from Dh3,075, and Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Phnom Penh with its partner Bangkok Airlines from Dh2,763. These trips take about nine hours each and both include taxes. From there, a road transfer takes at least four hours; airlines including KC Airlines (www.kcairlines.com) offer quick connecting flights from Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville from about $100 (Dh367) return including taxes. Air Asia, Malindo Air and Malaysian Airlines fly direct from Kuala Lumpur to Sihanoukville from $54 each way. Next year, direct flights are due to launch between Bangkok and Sihanoukville, which will cut the journey time by a third.
The stay
Rooms at Alila Villas Koh Russey (www.alilahotels.com/ kohrussey) cost from $385 per night including taxes.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: now
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Power: 575bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh554,000
On sale: now
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
Tips for taking the metro
- set out well ahead of time
- make sure you have at least Dh15 on you Nol card, as there could be big queues for top-up machines
- enter the right cabin. The train may be too busy to move between carriages once you're on
- don't carry too much luggage and tuck it under a seat to make room for fellow passengers
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FLIP5
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The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
Australia men's Test cricket fixtures 2021/22
One-off Test v Afghanistan:
Nov 27-Dec 1: Blundstone Arena, Hobart
The Ashes v England:
Dec 8-12: 1st Test, Gabba, Brisbane
Dec 16-20: 2nd Test, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide (day/night)
Dec 26-30: 3rd Test, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Jan 5-9, 2022: 4th Test, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Jan 14-18: 5th Test, Optus Stadium, Perth
