Calling Iran a “regional menace” and pointing to prospects of increased violence between Israel and Tehran, the new US threat assessment report of 2021 released on Tuesday portrays a set of complex challenges for Washington in the Middle East and in countering Russia and China.
The report, released by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, presents the first assessment for the Joe Biden administration and its reading of global challenges.
Over 27 pages, the DNI lists great power competition, climate change, an increasing number of empowered non-state actors and rapidly evolving technology as the main threats for 2021. It names China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as the four states that “have demonstrated the capability and intent to advance their interests at the expense of the United States and its allies, despite the pandemic".
US intelligence frames Iran’s role as a “regional menace” because of its “broader malign influence activities".
Despite a worsening economy, the report says Iran will continue to use a range of tools, including expanding its nuclear programme and proxy and partner attacks, to advance its goals.
"We expect that Iran will take risks that could escalate tension and threaten US and allied interests in the coming year," the report says. "Iran sees itself as locked in a struggle with the United States and its regional allies, whom they perceive to be focused on curtailing Iran's geopolitical influence and pursuing regime change."
But it adds that “Iran’s willingness to conduct attacks probably will hinge on its perception of the United States’ willingness to respond, its ability to conduct attacks without triggering direct conflict and the prospect of jeopardising potential US sanctions relief.”
The report mentions Iraq as a main battleground for Iran’s influence “this year and during the next several years”, assessing that “Iranian-supported Iraqi Shia militias will continue to pose the primary threat to US personnel in Iraq".
In Syria, where the war is winding down, the report forecasts that Iran will pursue "a permanent military presence and economic deals".
The report also says Iran remains “a destabilising force in Yemen, as Tehran’s support to the Houthis – including supplying ballistic and cruise missiles as well as unmanned systems – poses a threat to US partners and interests, notably through strikes on Saudi Arabia".
The report makes mention of Iran's continued interest "in developing networks inside the US – an objective it has pursued for more than a decade".
It says: “During the past several years, US law enforcement has arrested numerous individuals with connections to Iran as agents of influence or for collecting information on Iranian dissidents in the United States, and Iran’s security forces have been linked to attempted assassination and kidnapping plots in Europe, the Middle East and South Asia.”
On the nuclear front, the report says that if Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, "Iranian officials probably will consider options ranging from further enriching uranium up to 60 per cent to designing and building a new 40-megawatt heavy water reactor."
On Tuesday, Iran announced upping its enrichment to 60 per cent in breach of the nuclear deal. The report also states that the "iterative violence between Israel and Iran" has "the potential to escalate or spread".
Addressing other threats, the report calls China “a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas – especially economically, militarily and technologically – and is pushing to change global norms".
The report expects Taiwan to be a major area of concern, where China will press “authorities to move towards unification and will condemn what it views as increased US-Taiwan engagement".
It says: “We expect that friction will grow as Beijing steps up attempts to portray Taipei as internationally isolated and dependent on the mainland for economic prosperity, and as China continues to increase military activity around the island.”
It also views Russia as “pushing back against Washington where it can globally, employing techniques up to and including the use of force".
It reiterates its assessment that Moscow "tried to kill opposition activist Alexei Navalny inside Russia in 2020 with a fourth-generation chemical agent".
Due to the geographical reach of the former Soviet Union, the report says Russia is "well positioned to increase its role in the Caucasus, intervene in Belarus if it deems necessary and continue destabilisation efforts against Ukraine while settlement talks remain stalled and low-level fighting continues".
In Afghanistan and even as US President Joe Biden prepares to announce the withdrawal of troops by September 11, 2021, the report forecasts that the Taliban will strengthen its position.
“The Taliban is likely to make gains on the battlefield, and the Afghan government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support,” it says.
In the broader Middle East, the report forecasts that it will remain a "region characterised by pervasive conflicts, with active insurgencies in several countries, sparring between Iran and other countries, and persistent terrorism and protest movements sparking occasional violence".
It says the fallout from Covid-19 pandemic will create more volatility and socioeconomic grievances in the region.
Intelligence officials will present their report and findings to Congress on Wednesday.
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
UAE%20Warriors%20fight%20card
%3Cp%3EMain%20Event%0D%3A%20Catchweight%20165lb%0D%3Cbr%3EMartun%20Mezhulmyan%20(ARM)%20v%20Acoidan%20Duque%20(ESP)%0D%3Cbr%3ECo-Main%20Event%0D%3A%20Bantamweight%0D%3Cbr%3EFelipe%20Pereira%20(BRA)%20v%20Azamat%20Kerefov%20(RUS)%0D%3Cbr%3EMiddleweight%0D%3Cbr%3EMohamad%20Osseili%20(LEB)%20v%20Amir%20Fazli%20(IRN)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20161%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EZhu%20Rong%20(CHI)%20vs.%20Felipe%20Maia%20(BRA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20176%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EHandesson%20Ferreira%20(BRA)%20vs.%20Ion%20Surdu%20(MDA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20168%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EArtur%20Zaynukov%20(RUS)%20v%20Sargis%20Vardanyan%20(ARM)%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%0D%3Cbr%3EIlkhom%20Nazimov%20(UZB)%20v%20Khazar%20Rustamov%20(AZE)%0D%3Cbr%3EBantamweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJalal%20Al%20Daaja%20(JOR)%20v%20Mark%20Alcoba%20(PHI)%0D%3Cbr%3ELightweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJakhongir%20Jumaev%20(UZB)%20v%20Dylan%20Salvador%20(FRA)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20143%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3EHikaru%20Yoshino%20(JPN)%20v%20Djamal%20Rustem%20(TUR)%0D%3Cbr%3EFeatherweight%0D%3Cbr%3EJavohir%20Imamov%20(UZB)%20v%20Ulan%20Tamgabaev%20(KAZ)%0D%3Cbr%3ECatchweight%20120%20lb%0D%3Cbr%3ELarissa%20Carvalho%20(BRA)%20v%20Elin%20Oberg%20(SWE)%0D%3Cbr%3ELightweight%0D%3Cbr%3EHussein%20Salem%20(IRQ)%20v%20Arlan%20Faurillo%20(PHI)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (All UAE kick-off times)
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt (11.30pm)
Saturday
Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen (6.30pm)
FA Augsburg v SC Freiburg (6.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Werder Bremen (6.30pm)
SC Paderborn v Hertha Berlin (6.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg (6.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Borussia Monchengladbach (9.30pm)
Sunday
Cologne v Bayern Munich (6.30pm)
Mainz v FC Schalke (9pm)
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Important questions to consider
1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?
There are different types of travel available for pets:
- Manifest cargo
- Excess luggage in the hold
- Excess luggage in the cabin
Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.
2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?
If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.
If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.
3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?
As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.
If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty.
If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport.
4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?
This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.
In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.
5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?
Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.
Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.
Source: Pawsome Pets UAE
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 640hp
Torque: 760nm
On sale: 2026
Price: Not announced yet
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Emergency phone numbers in the UAE
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
Civil%20War
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alex%20Garland%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kirsten%20Dunst%2C%20Cailee%20Spaeny%2C%20Wagner%20Moura%2C%20Nick%20Offerman%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
The%20Letter%20Writer
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Layla%20Kaylif%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eslam%20Al%20Kawarit%2C%20Rosy%20McEwen%2C%20Muhammad%20Amir%20Nawaz%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
