Incumbent American presidents almost always get re-elected. Of the 45 presidents, only five have not secured a second term.
But if current polling holds, Donald Trump could soon join his one-term predecessors.
Two national polls by the Washington Post-ABC and Zogby Strategies last week show Mr Trump trailing the Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 10 and 13 points respectively.
In swing states, numbers from Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, show a heated race but Mr Biden is performing better at this point in the race than former secretary of state Hillary Clinton was against Mr Trump in 2016.
Mr Biden’s lead comes despite being shut up at his family home in Delaware for weeks due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Since March, the former vice president has mostly been running the campaign from his basement, holding online events on Zoom and interviewing potential running mates by phone.
But John Zogby, the head of Zogby strategies polling, says Mr Biden’s home-stay has not hurt his standing.
"Being in his basement is not a problem because we [the public] have adjusted to all these changes. We can't expect campaign rallies and knocking on doors," Mr Zogby told The National.
Mr Biden’s lead appears to be less about campaign and more of a referendum on Mr Trump’s record.
“Joe Biden is playing it wisely by allowing Trump to run against himself, and staying a bit behind the scenes has helped him,” Mr Zogby said.
The fallout of the pandemic, which has led to 40 million Americans becoming unemployed, and now nationwide anti-racism protests have hurt Mr Trump’s standing.
Mr Zogby said the next most important decision for Mr Biden will be naming a running mate.
He committed in March to pick a woman, and with anti-racism protests engulfing US cities, the pollster said picking a black woman for the position is now more likely.
“It’s not just about the progressive versus moderate split [within the Democratic party] but also the identity split," Mr Zogby said.
"What is happening moves him in the direction of picking an African-American woman plus the pressure."
Senator Kamala Harris, Congresswoman Val Demings, Georgia politician Stacey Abrams and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms are all African-American women being considered by Mr Biden. He is expected to make a decision sometime around the start of August.
Despite Mr Biden’s current lead, some in the White House are hoping that the protests are another 1968 moment for the Republican Party.
Then Republican candidate Richard Nixon capitalised on riots to defeat former vice president Hubert Humphrey.
But Rachel Bitecofer, a senior fellow at the Niskanen Centre, who was most accurate in predicting the midterm election in November 2018, points to a very different situation today.
"First in the '60s we didn't have this polarisation, which is an actual measurable thing," Ms Bitecofer told The National.
"Second, white voters in 2020 are more liberal on racial attitudes than they were back in the '60s, especially on issues involving race and criminal justice and third, 1968 Nixon was running as opposition party [not incumbent].
“People look at Mr Trump and see him as part of the problem."
Her forecast gives Mr Biden an edge in winning on November 3 with at least 289 electoral votes (270 required to win).
“The forecasting has always been in favour of Democrats and Mr Biden is one of the more candidates that enjoy a broad appeal,” Ms Bitecofer said.
With the divide growing in the US between liberals and conservatives, she expects the polarisation to continue between now and voting day.
“Five months is a long time and the polarisation not going to change," Ms Bitecofer said.
"The fundamentals have been set in stone for a long time in this election cycle."
The Democrats are also polling ahead in key Senate races such as Arizona, Maine and North Carolina, but it is unclear if they can regain four seats and take the majority in that chamber.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jack Butland, Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope
Defenders: John Stones, Harry Maguire, Phil Jones, Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier, Gary Cahill, Ashley Young, Danny Rose, Trent Alexander-Arnold
Midfielders: Eric Dier, Jordan Henderson, Dele Alli, Jesse Lingard, Raheem Sterling, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Fabian Delph
Forwards: Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Marcus Rashford, Danny Welbeck
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The%20specs
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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South Korea
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Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Kathryn Hawkes of House of Hawkes on being a good guest (because we’ve all had bad ones)
- Arrive with a thank you gift, or make sure you have one for your host by the time you leave.
- Offer to buy groceries, cook them a meal or take your hosts out for dinner.
- Help out around the house.
- Entertain yourself so that your hosts don’t feel that they constantly need to.
- Leave no trace of your stay – if you’ve borrowed a book, return it to where you found it.
- Offer to strip the bed before you go.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
Monster Hunter: World
Capcom
PlayStation 4, Xbox One
EA%20Sports%20FC%2024
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Match info:
Portugal 1
Ronaldo (4')
Morocco 0
more from Janine di Giovanni
Results
Stage 7:
1. Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal - 3:18:29
2. Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep - same time
3. Phil Bauhaus (GER) Bahrain Victorious
4. Michael Morkov (DEN) Deceuninck-QuickStep
5. Cees Bol (NED) Team DSM
General Classification:
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates - 24:00:28
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers - 0:00:35
3. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 0:01:02
4. Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:01:42
5. Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo - 0:01:45
MATCH INFO
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
Manikarnika: The Queen of Jhansi
Director: Kangana Ranaut, Krish Jagarlamudi
Producer: Zee Studios, Kamal Jain
Cast: Kangana Ranaut, Ankita Lokhande, Danny Denzongpa, Atul Kulkarni
Rating: 2.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
Getting there
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly to Johannesburg or Cape Town daily. Flights cost from about Dh3,325, with a flying time of 8hours and 15 minutes. From there, fly South African Airlines or Air Namibia to Namibia’s Windhoek Hosea Kutako International Airport, for about Dh850. Flying time is 2 hours.
The stay
Wilderness Little Kulala offers stays from £460 (Dh2,135) per person, per night. It is one of seven Wilderness Safari lodges in Namibia; www.wilderness-safaris.com.
Skeleton Coast Safaris’ four-day adventure involves joining a very small group in a private plane, flying to some of the remotest areas in the world, with each night spent at a different camp. It costs from US$8,335.30 (Dh30,611); www.skeletoncoastsafaris.com
How to increase your savings
- Have a plan for your savings.
- Decide on your emergency fund target and once that's achieved, assign your savings to another financial goal such as saving for a house or investing for retirement.
- Decide on a financial goal that is important to you and put your savings to work for you.
- It's important to have a purpose for your savings as it helps to keep you motivated to continue while also reducing the temptation to spend your savings.
- Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
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The specs: 2019 Aston Martin DBS Superleggera
Price, base: Dh1.2 million
Engine: 5.2-litre twin-turbo V12
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 725hp @ 6,500pm
Torque: 900Nm @ 1,800rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.3L / 100km (estimate)
Bharatanatyam
A ancient classical dance from the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Intricate footwork and expressions are used to denote spiritual stories and ideas.
SWEET%20TOOTH
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In the Restaurant: Society in Four Courses
Christoph Ribbat
Translated by Jamie Searle Romanelli
Pushkin Press
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
RESULTS
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SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
